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HomeMy WebLinkAbout11. Inntopia-DMX VEAC 2024-11-11VEAC Seasonal Equinox Update Data as of October 31, 2024 Tom Foley, SVP Business Intelligence, Inntopia tfoley@inntopia.com November 12, 2024 Factors: Economic Forces At-Play Factors - Economic Trends: Green Lights (Almost) Everywhere Infl 0.2 Pt Conf 9.5 Pt 4.1% 2.1% 108.7 Dow Jones 41,763 Unemployment Consumer Confidence Inflation* Unchanged Dow -1.3% Wages: Beating Inflation for 17 Months……. 0. 2 % 9.1% 2.4% 4.0% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% Na t i o n a l I n f l a t i o n R a t e / M . O . M . % C h a n g e i n C P I Month of Year National Inflation Rate & Change from Last Month Month over Month Change in Consumer Prices National Inflation Rate Annualized Wage Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2021 2022 2023 2024 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Na t i o n a l I n f l a t i o n R a t e / M . O . M . % C h a n g e i n C P I Month of Year Inflation, Wages & Consumer Savings National Inflation Rate Personal Savings ($Billions) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Factors: Price Sensitivity - Savings: 22% Below Jan 1, 2019 $1,332.5 $1053.2 $370.5 Factors: Election Year Angst Source: Office of the International Trade Administration -4.4%-4.1% 4.0% 1.6% -6.8% 1.5% -12.1% 0.0% 6.6% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% All Election Years All Election Years Excl '08 & '20 Non-Election Years YOY Booking Pace: September & October Bookings Election Years vs Non-Election Years, 2004 to 2024 Pace: Sept & Oct Combined Pace: Sept Only Pace: Oct Only (c) 2024 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved Lodging Performance: A Glance at Summer 2024 Vail Summer Occupancy: Steady & Stable Gains, Beat Industr 26 . 0 % 4. 2 % 4. 1 % 2. 1 % 2. 5 % 2. 3 % 4. 4 %7. 7 % 2. 7 % 4. 4 % 3. 3 % -2. 9 % 1. 2 % 2. 5 % -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% May June July August September October Summer Total Occupancy: Summer 2024 vs Summer 2023 Industry Wide 21.1%64.3%44.1%47.9%47.2% 55.2%30.6% -15 . 7 % -4. 1 % 0. 0 % 1. 6 % -1. 6 % 2. 9 % -1. 7 % 4. 4 % 3. 2 % 0. 1 % 4. 5 % 0. 8 % 3. 2 % 2. 5 % -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% May June July August September October Summer Total ADR: Summer 2024 vs Summer 2023 Industry Wide Vail Summer ADR: Stepping Back for Success $223 $416 $341$317 $324 $375 $271 6. 2 % -0. 1 % 4. 1 % 3. 7 % 0. 9 % 5. 3 % 2. 6 % 12 . 4 % 6. 0 % 4. 5 % 7. 9 % -2. 0 % 4. 2 % 5. 0 % -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% May June July August September October Summer Total RevPAR: Summer 2024 vs Summer 2023 Industry Wide Vail Summer RevPAR:– Short Term Losses Have Long-Term Cau $47 $268 $150$152 $153 $207 $83 Summer Performance Spectrum High Low Avg Vail Occupancy 74.9%7.9%47.6%44.1% ADR $654 $153 $385 $341 RevPAR $401 $12 $183 $150 Lodging Performance: Winter 2024/25 Vail Property Participation Reports with data as of Oct 31, 2024 include: 24 Vail properties representing 2,182 units 57.5% of total community census 17 Mountain Destinations representing 152 properties and ~18,000 units ~55% of total regional industry census Factors: Not Really an October Issue, but……. Oct 31, 2024 Oct 31, 2023Nov 12, 2023 Winter Paid Occupancy 2024/25 22.2%42.2%32.1%37.9%31.4% 47.1%11.9% -5. 0 % -10 . 6 % -6. 9 % 6. 1 % 5. 3 % 28 . 2 % -1. 2 % -9. 0 % -7. 7 % -4. 2 % 5. 8 % 4. 9 % 2. 4 % -1. 6 % -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% November December January February March April Winter Total Occupancy: Winter 2024/25 vs 2023/24 Industry Wide Winter Paid Occupancy 2024/25 22.2%42.2%32.1%37.9%31.4% 47.1%11.9% Winter Total Occupancy: Big Shifts Ahead President’s Day Same Day Easter Sunday 21 Day Shift MLK Jr. Day 7 Day Shift Christmas Day 2 Day Shift ThanksgivingDay 7 Day Shift 6. 3 % -11 . 6 % -14 . 7 % -14 . 9 % -14 . 5 % -10 . 2 % -5. 5 % 1. 8 % 8. 5 % 4. 7 % -0. 5 % -5. 0 % -3. 3 % 0. 2 % 5. 9 % 9. 1 % 13 . 8 % 14 . 0 % 11 . 5 % 4. 6 % -2. 3 % -3. 4 % 2. 0 % 4. 6 % 5. 0 % 6. 8 % 2. 3 % -0. 9 % -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 14 - D e c 15 - D e c 16 - D e c 17 - D e c 18 - D e c 19 - D e c 20 - D e c 21 - D e c 22 - D e c 23 - D e c 24 - D e c 25 - D e c 26 - D e c 27 - D e c 28 - D e c 29 - D e c 30 - D e c 31 - D e c 1- J a n 2- J a n 3- J a n 4- J a n 5- J a n 6- J a n 7- J a n 8- J a n 9- J a n 10 - J a n Oc c u p a n c y a n d Y O Y % C h a n g e i n O c c u p a n c y Total Occupancy and YOY % Change Christmas / New Years 2024/25 YOY Occ as of 10/31 Abs Occ as of 10/31 Ch r i s t m a s D a y Ne w Ye a r s D a y SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR DECEMBER HOLIDAYS – SCHOOL BREAKS MAKING WAVES 6. 3 % -11 . 6 % -14 . 7 % -14 . 9 % -14 . 5 % -10 . 2 % -5. 5 % 1. 8 % 8. 5 % 4. 7 % -0. 5 % -5. 0 % -3. 3 % 0. 2 % 5. 9 % 9. 1 % 13 . 8 % 14 . 0 % 11 . 5 % 4. 6 % -2. 3 % -3. 4 % 2. 0 % 4. 6 % 5. 0 % 6. 8 % 2. 3 % -0. 9 % -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 14 - D e c 15 - D e c 16 - D e c 17 - D e c 18 - D e c 19 - D e c 20 - D e c 21 - D e c 22 - D e c 23 - D e c 24 - D e c 25 - D e c 26 - D e c 27 - D e c 28 - D e c 29 - D e c 30 - D e c 31 - D e c 1- J a n 2- J a n 3- J a n 4- J a n 5- J a n 6- J a n 7- J a n 8- J a n 9- J a n 10 - J a n Oc c u p a n c y a n d Y O Y % C h a n g e i n O c c u p a n c y YOY Occ as of 10/31 Abs Occ as of 10/31 Ch r i s t m a s D a y Ne w Ye a r s D a y SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR DECEMBER HOLIDAYS – SCHOOL BREAKS MAKING WAVES ~42% Fewer K-12 Students on Break ~28% More K-12 Students on Break Winter ADR 2024/25 $309 $874 $790$912 $869 $875 $428 -2. 5 % 9. 3 % 7. 4 % 0. 7 % -4. 8 % 23 . 4 % 3. 3 % -0. 3 % 2. 3 % 2. 5 % -0. 2 % -0. 1 % 11 . 7 % 2. 0 % -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% November December January February March April Winter Total ADR: Winter 2024/25 vs 2023/25 Industry Wide Winter ADR 2024/25 $309 $874 $790$912 $869 $875 $428 Winter RevPAR 2023-24 $69 $369 $254$346 $273$412 $51 -7. 4 % -2. 4 % 0. 0 % 6. 9 % 0. 2 % 58 . 1 % 2. 0 % -9. 3 % -5. 5 % -1. 8 % 5. 6 % 4. 8 % 14 . 3 % 0. 3 % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% November December January February March April Winter Total RevPAR: Winter 2024/25 vs 2023/26 Industry Wide Winter RevPAR 2023-24 $69 $369 $254$346 $273$412 $51 Winter Spectrum: High Low Avg Vail Occupancy 37.2%11.7%27.3%32.1% ADR $1029 $230 $673 $790 RevPAR $313 $27 $184 $254 Takeaways •Economy: Macro Economic indicators are very positive. Consumers may be turning the corner but are touchy. Watch employment, inflation & interest rates closely in months ahead. •Summer: Vail pulls back on rate in 4 of 6 months, driving industry- beating occupancy, but slightly behind on revenue. Part rate reset, part solid season. •Winter: Rate sensitivity continues BUT luxury leading the way; Vail rates relatively higher than industry gains, occupancy and revenue also up, so……. Pre-Christmas needs help everywhere; big holiday and school shifts this year = opportunities abound. •Overall: The semi-reset of rates in Vail over the summer is healthy and may be forced into the winter as well. Consumers are the last piece of the econ puzzle, but they will likely be a while yet. Look for value add to boost soft spots and knife edge revenue wins/losses Snow may play Questions / Discussion tfoley@inntopia.com