HomeMy WebLinkAbout12. Inntopia Seasonal Equinox Report-DMX VEAC 2024-11-11VEAC Seasonal Equinox Update
Data as of October 31, 2024
Tom Foley, SVP Business Intelligence, Inntopia
tfoley@inntopia.com
November 12, 2024
Factors: Economic Forces At-Play
Factors - Economic Trends: Green Lights (Almost) Everywhere
Infl
0.2 Pt
Conf
9.5 Pt
4.1%
2.1%
108.7
Dow Jones 41,763
Unemployment
Consumer Confidence
Inflation*
Unchanged
Dow
-1.3%
Wages: Beating Inflation for 17 Months…….
0.
2
%
9.1%
2.4%
4.0%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
Na
t
i
o
n
a
l
I
n
f
l
a
t
i
o
n
R
a
t
e
/
M
.
O
.
M
.
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
C
P
I
Month of Year
National Inflation Rate & Change from Last Month
Month over Month Change in Consumer Prices National Inflation Rate Annualized Wage Growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2021 2022 2023 2024
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Na
t
i
o
n
a
l
I
n
f
l
a
t
i
o
n
R
a
t
e
/
M
.
O
.
M
.
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
C
P
I
Month of Year
Inflation, Wages & Consumer Savings
National Inflation Rate Personal Savings ($Billions)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Factors: Price Sensitivity - Savings: 22% Below Jan 1, 2019
$1,332.5 $1053.2
$370.5
Factors: Election Year Angst
Source: Office of the International Trade Administration
-4.4%-4.1%
4.0%
1.6%
-6.8%
1.5%
-12.1%
0.0%
6.6%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
All Election Years All Election Years Excl '08 & '20 Non-Election Years
YOY Booking Pace: September & October Bookings
Election Years vs Non-Election Years, 2004 to 2024
Pace: Sept & Oct Combined Pace: Sept Only Pace: Oct Only
(c) 2024 Sterling Valley Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Lodging Performance: A Glance at Summer 2024
Vail Summer Occupancy: Steady & Stable Gains, Beat Industr
26
.
0
%
4.
2
%
4.
1
%
2.
1
%
2.
5
%
2.
3
%
4.
4
%7.
7
%
2.
7
%
4.
4
%
3.
3
%
-2.
9
%
1.
2
%
2.
5
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
May June July August September October Summer Total
Occupancy: Summer 2024 vs Summer 2023 Industry Wide
21.1%64.3%44.1%47.9%47.2% 55.2%30.6%
-15
.
7
%
-4.
1
%
0.
0
%
1.
6
%
-1.
6
%
2.
9
%
-1.
7
%
4.
4
%
3.
2
%
0.
1
%
4.
5
%
0.
8
%
3.
2
%
2.
5
%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
May June July August September October Summer Total
ADR: Summer 2024 vs Summer 2023 Industry Wide
Vail Summer ADR: Stepping Back for Success
$223 $416 $341$317 $324 $375 $271
6.
2
%
-0.
1
%
4.
1
%
3.
7
%
0.
9
%
5.
3
%
2.
6
%
12
.
4
%
6.
0
%
4.
5
%
7.
9
%
-2.
0
%
4.
2
%
5.
0
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
May June July August September October Summer Total
RevPAR: Summer 2024 vs Summer 2023 Industry Wide
Vail Summer RevPAR:– Short Term Losses Have Long-Term Cau
$47 $268 $150$152 $153 $207 $83
Summer Performance Spectrum
High Low Avg Vail
Occupancy 74.9%7.9%47.6%44.1%
ADR $654 $153 $385 $341
RevPAR $401 $12 $183 $150
Lodging Performance: Winter 2024/25
Vail Property Participation
Reports with data as of Oct 31, 2024 include:
24 Vail properties representing 2,182 units
57.5% of total community census
17 Mountain Destinations representing
152 properties and ~18,000 units
~55% of total regional industry census
Factors: Not Really an October Issue, but…….
Oct 31, 2024 Oct 31, 2023Nov 12, 2023
Winter Paid Occupancy 2024/25
22.2%42.2%32.1%37.9%31.4% 47.1%11.9%
-5.
0
%
-10
.
6
%
-6.
9
%
6.
1
%
5.
3
%
28
.
2
%
-1.
2
%
-9.
0
%
-7.
7
%
-4.
2
%
5.
8
%
4.
9
%
2.
4
%
-1.
6
%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
November December January February March April Winter Total
Occupancy: Winter 2024/25 vs 2023/24 Industry Wide
Winter Paid Occupancy 2024/25
22.2%42.2%32.1%37.9%31.4% 47.1%11.9%
Winter Total Occupancy: Big Shifts Ahead
President’s Day
Same Day
Easter Sunday
21 Day Shift
MLK Jr. Day
7 Day Shift
Christmas Day
2 Day Shift
ThanksgivingDay
7 Day Shift
6.
3
%
-11
.
6
%
-14
.
7
%
-14
.
9
%
-14
.
5
%
-10
.
2
%
-5.
5
%
1.
8
%
8.
5
%
4.
7
%
-0.
5
%
-5.
0
%
-3.
3
%
0.
2
%
5.
9
%
9.
1
%
13
.
8
%
14
.
0
%
11
.
5
%
4.
6
%
-2.
3
%
-3.
4
%
2.
0
%
4.
6
%
5.
0
%
6.
8
%
2.
3
%
-0.
9
%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
14
-
D
e
c
15
-
D
e
c
16
-
D
e
c
17
-
D
e
c
18
-
D
e
c
19
-
D
e
c
20
-
D
e
c
21
-
D
e
c
22
-
D
e
c
23
-
D
e
c
24
-
D
e
c
25
-
D
e
c
26
-
D
e
c
27
-
D
e
c
28
-
D
e
c
29
-
D
e
c
30
-
D
e
c
31
-
D
e
c
1-
J
a
n
2-
J
a
n
3-
J
a
n
4-
J
a
n
5-
J
a
n
6-
J
a
n
7-
J
a
n
8-
J
a
n
9-
J
a
n
10
-
J
a
n
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
a
n
d
Y
O
Y
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
O
c
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
Total Occupancy and YOY % Change
Christmas / New Years 2024/25
YOY Occ as of 10/31 Abs Occ as of 10/31
Ch
r
i
s
t
m
a
s
D
a
y
Ne
w
Ye
a
r
s
D
a
y
SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR
DECEMBER HOLIDAYS – SCHOOL BREAKS MAKING WAVES
6.
3
%
-11
.
6
%
-14
.
7
%
-14
.
9
%
-14
.
5
%
-10
.
2
%
-5.
5
%
1.
8
%
8.
5
%
4.
7
%
-0.
5
%
-5.
0
%
-3.
3
%
0.
2
%
5.
9
%
9.
1
%
13
.
8
%
14
.
0
%
11
.
5
%
4.
6
%
-2.
3
%
-3.
4
%
2.
0
%
4.
6
%
5.
0
%
6.
8
%
2.
3
%
-0.
9
%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
14
-
D
e
c
15
-
D
e
c
16
-
D
e
c
17
-
D
e
c
18
-
D
e
c
19
-
D
e
c
20
-
D
e
c
21
-
D
e
c
22
-
D
e
c
23
-
D
e
c
24
-
D
e
c
25
-
D
e
c
26
-
D
e
c
27
-
D
e
c
28
-
D
e
c
29
-
D
e
c
30
-
D
e
c
31
-
D
e
c
1-
J
a
n
2-
J
a
n
3-
J
a
n
4-
J
a
n
5-
J
a
n
6-
J
a
n
7-
J
a
n
8-
J
a
n
9-
J
a
n
10
-
J
a
n
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
a
n
d
Y
O
Y
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
O
c
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
YOY Occ as of 10/31 Abs Occ as of 10/31
Ch
r
i
s
t
m
a
s
D
a
y
Ne
w
Ye
a
r
s
D
a
y
SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR SA SU MO TU WE TH FR
DECEMBER HOLIDAYS – SCHOOL BREAKS MAKING WAVES
~42% Fewer K-12
Students on Break
~28% More K-12
Students on Break
Winter ADR 2024/25
$309 $874 $790$912 $869 $875 $428
-2.
5
%
9.
3
%
7.
4
%
0.
7
%
-4.
8
%
23
.
4
%
3.
3
%
-0.
3
%
2.
3
%
2.
5
%
-0.
2
%
-0.
1
%
11
.
7
%
2.
0
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
November December January February March April Winter Total
ADR: Winter 2024/25 vs 2023/25 Industry Wide
Winter ADR 2024/25
$309 $874 $790$912 $869 $875 $428
Winter RevPAR 2023-24
$69 $369 $254$346 $273$412 $51
-7.
4
%
-2.
4
%
0.
0
%
6.
9
%
0.
2
%
58
.
1
%
2.
0
%
-9.
3
%
-5.
5
%
-1.
8
%
5.
6
%
4.
8
%
14
.
3
%
0.
3
%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
November December January February March April Winter Total
RevPAR: Winter 2024/25 vs 2023/26 Industry Wide
Winter RevPAR 2023-24
$69 $369 $254$346 $273$412 $51
Winter Spectrum:
High Low Avg Vail
Occupancy 37.2%11.7%27.3%32.1%
ADR $1029 $230 $673 $790
RevPAR $313 $27 $184 $254
Takeaways
•Economy: Macro Economic indicators are very positive.
Consumers may be turning the corner but are touchy. Watch
employment, inflation & interest rates closely in months ahead.
•Summer: Vail pulls back on rate in 4 of 6 months, driving industry-
beating occupancy, but slightly behind on revenue. Part rate
reset, part solid season.
•Winter: Rate sensitivity continues BUT luxury leading the way; Vail
rates relatively higher than industry gains, occupancy and
revenue also up, so……. Pre-Christmas needs help everywhere;
big holiday and school shifts this year = opportunities abound.
•Overall: The semi-reset of rates in Vail over the summer is
healthy and may be forced into the winter as well.
Consumers are the last piece of the econ puzzle, but they
will likely be a while yet. Look for value add to boost soft
spots and knife edge revenue wins/losses Snow may play
Questions / Discussion
tfoley@inntopia.com