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Home My WebLink About07. VVP_State of the Economy_9.23.25Attention to the Risks Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist Associate Dean Leeds School of Business University of Colorado Boulder September 23, 2025 Vail Valley Partnership Student Loan Crisis Risks SeverityLow High Low High Sources: Business Research Division and Moody’s Analytics. Framework and select risks based on U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Baseline and Alternative Scenarios published by Moody’s. Li k e l i h o o d Tariffs Worker Shortage Consumer Growth Inflation Increases CRE Struggles Political Strife Negative Savings Rates Household Debt Fiscal Cliff Unions/Labor Movement Artificial Intelligence Extreme Weather Event Supply Chain Disruptions Climate Change Energy Price Spike Fed Policy Immigration Policy Tax Cuts Sovereign Debt Federal Gov’t Restructuring Geopolitics Foreign Policy Insurance Property Tax Demographics Stock Market Correction Interest Rates Travel Restrictions Geopolitical Conflicts Tax Cuts National Economy Signals GDP rebounded in Q2 Employment stagnating ISM Mfg below 50 for 6 months Confidence slumped Consumption up Prices inched up Debt and delinquencies growing Business confidence bounced Interest rates elevated Industrial production flat Capacity utilization flat Labor force increased U.S. Real GDP U.S. Quarterly GDP, $ Trillions Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Moody’s Analytics. 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Q1 2025: -0.5% Q2 2025 +3.3% SAAR Consumption Investment Net ExportsFederal State and local Optimistic Baseline Pessimistic Real GDP Growth -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth Excl. Trade and Inventory Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Colorado 15-Year Ranking, 2024 Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index, BRD calculations. Metric 15-Year Rank Real GDP Growth 5 Employment Growth 5 Population Growth 6 Personal Income Growth 3 Per Capita Personal Income Growth 3 Labor Force % Growth 6 FHFA Home Price Index Growth 1 Colorado Rank Among States Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2025), Bureau of Labor Statistics (8/25), U.S. Census Bureau (2025), Bureau of Lab or Statistics (2025), Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q2 2025), BRD calculations. *Unemployment rate for the last mo nth. Metric 1-Year Change/ Current Level 1-Year Rank Real GDP Growth 1-Year Change 2.0%23 Employment Growth 1-Year Change 0.6%34 Population Growth 1-Year Change 1.0%16 Personal Income Growth 1-Year Change 4.3%30 Per Capita Personal Income Growth 1-Year Change 3.5%31 Per Capita Personal Income Current Level $85,002 8 Average Hourly Wage % Growth 1-Year Change 4.4%22 Average Annual Pay % Growth 1-Year Change 4.3%23 Average Annual Pay Current Level $81,170 7 Unemployment Rate Current Level 4.2%35 Labor Force % Growth 1-Year Change 0.0%33 LFPR Current Level 67.4%6 FHFA Home Price Index Growth 1-Quarter Change 0.3%47 FHFA Home Price Index Growth 1-Year Change 0.9%50 Job Openings Rate Current Level 3.9%46 Worker Shortage Ratio Current Level 0.8 46 Jobs Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash. 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 Recession Jobs Lost: 21.9M Percentage: -14.4% April 2020 130.4 million U.S. Nonfarm Employment Monthly U.S. Nonfarm Employment in Millions Jan. 2017 145.6 million Feb. 2020 152.3 million August 2025 159.5 million March 2020 150.9 million +0.9% YoY +1.5M YoY Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Nonfarm Employment Growth Thousands of Jobs Added Per Month -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2021 Average 603k 2022 Average 380k 2023 Average 216k 2024 Average 166k 22k 2025 Average 75k Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics. National Unemployment and Wage Growth 0 5 10 15 20 25 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 U-6 8.1% U-34.3% Average U-6 Average U-3 U.S. Unemployment Rate, Monthly Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Real Nominal Private-Sector Wage Growth Job Growth -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2024 Apr 2024 Jul 2024 Oct 2024 Jan 2025 Apr 2025 Jul 2025 All Other Industries Tariff-Exposed Industries 3-Month Moving Average Change, Thousands Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Apollo. Tariff-exposed sectors include manufacturing, mining and logging, construction, wholesales trade, retail trade, transportation a nd warehousing. 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2023 2025 Colorado Labor Shortage Labor Force Job Openings and Unemployed Sources: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS, and the Current Population Survey (NSA ) . th o u s a n d s 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2003 2008 2014 2019 2025 Th o u s a n d s Job Openings Unemployed Ratio: 0.8:1 Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2025 15,000 0.5% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2024 33,500 1.1% Colorado Employment Forecast Jobs Added, Thousands, 2000-2025 Total, Millions, 2000-2025 Colorado Employment Change—July 2025 YoY -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jobs (Thousands) -10%-5%0%5%10% Percent Change State Healthcare and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Transportation and Utilities Local Information Manufacturing Management of Companies and Enterprises Mining and Logging Construction Other Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Admin and Waste Management Federal Educational Services Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal Employment in Colorado Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1991 1995 1999 2003 2008 2012 2016 2020 2025 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2020 Census Federal Jobs, Thousands Percent of Total Employment 2000 Census 2010 Census Colorado Ski Counties Covered Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Ski counties include counties with ski areas, excluding Boulder and Mesa. 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000 200,000 210,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 +1.3% Year-over-Year Monthly 12 -Month Trailing Average Eagle County Covered Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Ski counties include counties with ski areas, excluding Boulder and Mesa. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 +1.9% Year-over-Year Monthly 12 -Month Trailing Average Industry Location Quotients Eagle County compared to the U.S., 2024 Ar t s , e n t e r t a i n m e n t , a n d r e c r e a t i o n Re a l e s t a t e a n d r e n t a l a n d l e a s i n g Ac c o m m o d a t i o n a n d f o o d se r v i c e s Co n s t r u c t i o n Ad m i n i s t r a t i v e a n d w a s t e ma n a g e m e n t s e r v i c e s Ot h e r s e r v i c e s , e x c e p t go v e r n m e n t Lo c a l G o v Re t a i l t r a d e He a l t h c a r e a n d s o c i a l as s i s t a n c e Pr o f e s s i o n a l , s c i e n t i f i c , a n d te c h n i c a l s e r v i c e s Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d wa r e h o u s i n g Ed u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s In f o r m a t i o n Ut i l i t i e s Fi n a n c e a n d i n s u r a n c e Wh o l e s a l e t r a d e Ma n a g e m e n t o f c o m p a n i e s an d e n t e r p r i s e s Mi n i n g Pr i v a t e Fe d e r a l G o v St a t e G o v Ag r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y , f i s h i n g , an d h u n t i n g Ma n u f a c t u r i n g 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Lo c a t i o n Q u o t i e n t Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Eagle County Employment Composition Accommodations and Food Construction Retail trade Health Care Arts/Entertainment Admin and Waste Real Estate Prof. Scientific, Technical Other Transp/W arehouse Finance and insurance Wholesale trade Manufa cturing Private Educ… Infor mati on H Q U A M… Fed Local Gov Sta te Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW, 2024. Colorado Ski Counties Average Covered Wages $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 4Q R o l l i n g A v e r a g e Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Ski counties include counties with ski areas, excluding Boulder and Mesa. +3.4%, $2,035 Year-over-Year +3.1%, $1,944 Ski Counties Eagle County Income and Prices Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash. 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 Jul 2019 Jul 2022 Jul 2025 National Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Transfer ReceiptsProprietor Income Dividends, Interest, and RentEmployee Compensation $ B i l l i o n s , S e a s o n a l l y A d j . A n n u a l R a t e 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 Jul 2019 Jul 2022 Jul 2025 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Jul 2019 Jul 2022 Jul 2025 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Jul 2019 Jul 2022 Jul 2025 Household Liabilities as Percentage of Household Assets Source: Federal Reserve. 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 Q1 2002 Q3 2005 Q1 2007 Q3 2010 Q1 2012 Q3 2015 Q1 2017 Q3 2020 Q1 2022 Q3 2025 Q1 Percentage Assets Across the Income Distribution Source: Federal Reserve, Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 0-20 percentile 20-40 percentile 40-60 percentile 60-80 percentile 80-99 percentile Top 1 percentile $ trillions, Q2 2018 - Q1 2025 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2003 Q1 2007 Q4 2012 Q3 2017 Q2 2021 Q2 Pe r c e n t Mortgage HELOC Auto Credit Card Student Loan Other All Loan Delinquency Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (Q1 2024). 2025 Q2 Inflation 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 8/2021 8/2022 8/2023 8/2024 8/2025 U.S. – All Items Mountain – All Items Denver – All Items Items U.S. City Average Mountain Denver- Aurora- Lakewood Item Weights All items 2.9%2.5%2.1%100.0% Food and beverages 3.1%2.5%1.8%14.5% Housing 4.0%1.6%1.7%44.2% Apparel 0.2%2.6%4.9%2.5% Transportation 0.9%0.6%0.5%16.6% Medical care 3.4%7.1%6.4%8.3% Recreation 2.3%4.8%3.3%5.3% Education and comm.0.3%1.8%-1.5%5.7% Other goods and services 3.9%7.0%6.8%2.9% Core Inflation 3.1%3.0%2.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. *U.S., Mountain, Denver MSA data through July. Consumer Price Index, Percent Change Year -Over-Year Monetary Policy and Interest Rates Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Pe r c e n t Interest Rates Sources: Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average 10-Year T-Note 3-Month T-Bill “The decision to ease reflected a "shift in the balance of risks" with the Committee believing that the "downside risks to employment have risen." While inflation has ticked up since the spring, a development acknowledged in the post-meeting statement, job growth has downshifted sharply and the unemployment rate has risen to the top end of the Committee's central tendency range consistent with full employment.” Source: Wells Fargo Economics Confidence Photo by Johnathan Klok on Unsplash. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Index of Consumer Confidence 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Sources: The Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Michigan. ISM Indices Source: Institute for Supply Management® (ISM). 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI ® Index ISM Services PMI® Index Small Business Outlook -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Business Conditions Optimism Index Source: National Federation of Independent Business. Colorado Population, Employment, and the Economy Photo by Johnathan Klok on Unsplash. Colorado Change in Population Sources: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Business Research Division. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Na t u r a l In c r e a s e Ne t Mi g r a t i o n -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Thousands Natural Increase Net Migration Ski Counties – Population Change Source: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Business Research Division. 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Under Age 25 Over Age 65 25 -34 55 -6435-4445-54 Taxable Expenditures by Age Cohort Percent Taxable Expenditures Source: Based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Calculations based on Colorado taxabl e goods. $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Under Age 25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 Over Age 65 Under Age 25 Over Age 65 25 -34 55 -64 45 -54 35 -44 Taxable Expenditures by Age Cohort Total Taxable Expenditures Source: Based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Calculations based on Colorado taxabl e goods. National Retail and Food Services Sales 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 $ M i l l i o n s August 2025 Year -over-Year: 5% Month-over-Month: 0.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Seasonally Adjusted. State Taxable Sales from Counties Source: Colorado Department of Revenue. -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Ki t C a r s o n Do l o r e s Co n e j o s Se d g w i c k Mo r g a n Mi n e r a l Ph i l l i p s Su m m i t Wa s h i n g t o n Mo f f a t Lo g a n La s A n i m a s Bo u l d e r El P a s o Ad a m s Fr e m o n t Gr a n d Pr o w e r s El b e r t Ot e r o Ar a p a h o e Je f f e r s o n Sa n J u a n Br o o m f i e l d La r i m e r Te l l e r Al a m o s a Sa n M i g u e l Ea g l e Ri o G r a n d e Gi l p i n De n v e r Sa g u a c h e Do u g l a s Mo n t r o s e Me s a Ri o B l a n c o La P l a t a Ch a f f e e Ro u t t We l d Ga r f i e l d Li n c o l n Pi t k i n Ar c h u l e t a De l t a Be n t Mo n t e z u m a Ja c k s o n Yu m a Ou r a y Cu s t e r Pu e b l o Gu n n i s o n Hi n s d a l e Co s t i l l a Hu e r f a n o Pa r k Cl e a r C r e e k Ki o w a La k e Ba c a Cr o w l e y Ch e y e n n e June 2025 YTD Compared to June 2024 State: 1.5% >20% Ski Counties Taxable Sales 0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,800,000,000 2,000,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ta x a b l e S a l e s Source: Colorado Department of Revenue . 2021 2019 2020 2023 2024: +0.98% 2025 YTD % change: +3.6% 2022 2024 2025 Indexed Employment Fe b r u a r y 2 0 2 0 = 1 0 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (Seasonally Adjusted). 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total Employment Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Resident Labor Force Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted). -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Pe r c e n t La PlataSan Miguel Grand Lake, Pitkin Archuleta Garfield Summit Clear Creek GunnisonEagle July 2025 Year-over-Year San Juan Chaffee Resident Employment Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted). -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Pe r c e n t C h a n g e La Plata Clear Creek San Miguel, Garfield Eagle, Archuleta Routt San Juan Lake, Pitkin Chaffee , Gunnison Grand Summit July 2025 Year-over-Year Resident Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted). -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Pe r c e n t Lake, Clear Creek San Miguel, Grand La Plata, Pitkin Routt, Garfield, Archuleta Chaffee Gunnison San Juan Summit July 2025 Year-over-Year Leisure and Hospitality Photo by Melanie Magdalena on Unsplash . Tourism Covered Employment 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Jun-25 Th o u s a n d s Colorado Urban Rural Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% -10%-5%0%5%10%15%20% Nevada Montana Colorado New Jersey Wyoming Compared to January 2020 Ye a r -ov e r -Ye a r Louisiana West Virginia Idaho Hawaii Utah DIA Enplanements and Deplanements 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 3-Month Moving Average Monthly 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2022 2023 2024 2025 DIA Monthly Passenger Traffic, Thousands, 2000-2025 June YTD (Millions) Source: Denver International Airport. International +5.7% Domestic -1.6% Total -1.2% DIA Enplanements and Deplanements Source: Denver International Airport. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012 2015 2018 2021 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2000 2006 2012 2018 2025 Originating and Destination, Thousands Transfers, Thousands Construction and Real Estate Photo by Josh Olalde on Unsplash. Colorado Total Value of Construction 0 5 10 15 20 25 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential $22.2 $19.2 $ B i l l i o n s 2022 2023 2024 2025 YTD Jan. – August Sources: Dodge Construction Network and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Ski Areas Total Value of Construction 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential $ M i l l i o n s 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2022 2023 2024 2025 YTD Jan. – August Sources: Dodge Construction Network and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Eagle County Total Value of Construction 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential $ M i l l i o n s 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2022 2023 2024 2025 YTD Jan. – August Sources: Dodge Construction Network and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. FHFA Home Price Index by State Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted). 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% IL MDCT LADE AKMS WVNJ NMVAAL MNPAWYNY IAVTWI AR MORIHI KY OHKS OK MA NHINNDORMEMI NCSCNE GA SDWACAMT NVAZ TNUT IDTXFL CO Colorado Year-over-Year Home Price Change, 2008 -2023 FHFA Home Price Index by State Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted). 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% LAHI AZ COORTX SDMSFL IACAGA ID NDMNUT AR WANCOKAK TNMT NMMOSC MADE NE INWYKS KY MDNVWI PAMI AL VA WVIL ME OH NHNYCTNJRI VT Colorado Year-over -Year Home Price Change, Q4 2024 FHFA Home Price Index by State Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted). 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% COFL ORTXAZ CAMT LANVWANE GAUT NC WVSC MNTNMDVT SDMS IDAROKDEKS IAVAAL MOKY MAWY IN NMAKHIMI OHPA NDNHMEWI ILNJRI NYCT Colorado Year-over -Year Home Price Change, Q2 2025 FHFA Home Price Index by MSA -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Denver- Aurora- Lakewood Greeley Pueblo Fort Collins Grand Junction Boulder 1-Year Home Price Change, Q2 2025 Colorado Springs Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Colorado Residential Building Permits YTD July 2023 YTD July 2024 YTD July 2025Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Multifamily Single Family 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Ski Counties Residential Building Permits Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Multifamily Single Family SF MF Total '21-'22 -19%-20%-19% '22-'23 -24%37%-6% '23-'24 5%7%6% Permits, 2004-2024 Eagle County Residential Building Permits 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Multifamily Single Family YTD July 2023 YTD July 2024 YTD July 2025 Indicators Photo by Riccardo Annandale on Unsplash. National and State Expectations 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Q3 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 2007 Q2 2008 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2012 Q2 2013 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2022 Q2 2023 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Colorado United States Index (50=Neutral) Source: LBCI. BRD Publications and Confidence Index Register and Receive Free Access to: •Colorado Business Economic Outlook •Colorado Business Review •Leeds Business Confidence Index •Quarterly Indicators Report •Research Publications Student Loan Crisis Risks SeverityLow High Low High Sources: Business Research Division and Moody’s Analytics. Framework and select risks based on U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Baseline and Alternative Scenarios published by Moody’s. Li k e l i h o o d Tariffs Worker Shortage Consumer Growth Inflation Increases CRE Struggles Political Strife Negative Savings Rates Household Debt Fiscal Cliff Unions/Labor Movement Artificial Intelligence Extreme Weather Event Supply Chain Disruptions Climate Change Energy Price Spike Fed Policy Immigration Policy Tax Cuts Sovereign Debt Federal Gov’t Restructuring Geopolitics Foreign Policy Insurance Property Tax Demographics Stock Market Correction Interest Rates Travel Restrictions Geopolitical Conflicts Tax Cuts Q&A