HomeMy WebLinkAbout01. Vail Lodging Performance Update as of 2.28.26Vail Lodging Performance
Update
Analysis for December 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 as of February
28, 2026.
Vail Winter Lodging Performance
Hotels & Professionally Managed Homes & Condos
Season-to-date analysis for Dec. 1, 2025 through Apr. 30, 2026 as of February 28, 2026.
These differences reflect how each segment responds to demand uncertainty. Hotels adjust pricing more quickly to maintain volume. Homes and condos
often prioritize rate stability due to longer stays and owner-driven pricing decisions. These figures are updated as of January 27, 2026, showing slight
adjustments from the end-of-year snapshot.
Flat
Hotel
Occupancy
+2% as of 1/27/26
-8%
Hotel
Average Daily Rate
-8% as of 1/27/26
-6%
Homes & Condos
Occupancy
-6% as of 1/27/26
+2%
Homes & Condos
Average Daily Rate
+2% as of 1/27/26
Cancellation Trends: +24% in cancelled nights YOY (+16% as of 1/27/26)
There is a significant increase in cancelled room nights, pacing 24% higher year-over-year and from a month ago.. This trend is now predominantly driven
by an increased concentration of cancellations for arrivals occurring from late January through late February. This aligns with the pattern of increased
cancellations happening within 30 days of arrival, suggesting heightened last-minute uncertainty.
Spotlight on High Demand Periods
Understanding the movement in key metrics between December 31st and January 27th.
Christmas / New Year's (Dec 19 – Jan 4)
Hotel Occupancy: -8% (12/31) → -7% (1/27)
Hotel Rates: -2% (12/31) → -2% (1/27)
Homes & Condos Occupancy: -7% (12/31) → -4% (1/27)
Homes & Condos Rates: +4% (12/31) → +3% (1/27)
Analysis: Both segments show modest recovery in occupancy and rates since year-end, with the exception of a slight dip in Homes & Condos
rates.
President's Week (Feb 13 – 22)
Hotel Occupancy: +8% (12/31) → -7% (1/27) → -5% (2/28)
Hotel Rates: -8% (12/31) → -9% (1/27) → -11% (2/28)
Homes & Condos Occupancy: -8% (12/31) → -10% (1/27) → -7% (2/28)
Homes & Condos Rates: +7% (12/31) → +3% (1/27) → -1% (2/28)
Analysis: Pricing pressure increased as the holiday approached. Hotel ADR declined further to -11% YoY, while homes and condos saw rates fall
from +7% to slightly below last year (-1%), suggesting operators lowered prices to stimulate demand., which increase occupancy pacing slightly
from a month ago.
Spotlight on High Demand Periods
Understanding the movement in key metrics between December 31st and January 27th.
Spring Break (Mar 6 – 15)
Hotel Occupancy: +33% (12/31) → +18% (1/27) → +11% (2/28)
Hotel Rates: -5% (12/31) → -8% (1/27) → -9% (2/28)
Homes & Condos Occupancy: -10% (12/31) → -14% (1/27) → -11% (2/28)
Homes & Condos Rates: +7% (12/31) → +3% (1/27) → -3% (2/28)
Analysis: Spring Break demand in Vail softened over the past month, with hotel occupancy declining from +18% to +11% YoY and rates falling further to
-9%, signaling weaker booking momentum. Homes and condos also trailed last year in occupancy and saw rates shift from +3% to -3%, reflecting
growing price pressure across both lodging segments.
April/Easter (April 5th - Week before & after)
Hotel Occupancy: +46% (12/31) → +29% (1/27) → +15% (2/28)
Hotel Rates: +9% (12/31) → +2% (1/27) → +6% (2/28)
Homes & Condos Occupancy: +74 (12/31) → +57% (1/27) → +34% (2/28)
Homes & Condos Rates: +33% (12/31) → +30% (1/27) → +32% (2/28)
Analysis: Easter period performance in Vail remains ahead of last year across both lodging segments, though the large YoY gains have moderated as
the booking window progresses. Because booking volumes are still relatively low this far out, the high percentage changes—particularly in homes and
condos—should be interpreted cautiously despite the recent softening.
How Vail Compares to Western Mountain Resort Peers
While Vail maintains stronger visitation, especially in Hotels, by offering lower room rates, Homes and Condos largely
mirror regional trends.
Hotels: Vail vs. Peers
Vail: Occupancy FLAT, rates down 8%
Peers: Occupancy down 10%, rates up 7%
Vail is holding occupancy flat while rates are down 8%,
suggesting a deliberate move to protect volume. Meanwhile,
peer destinations are preserving rate at the expense of
visitation—an environment where Vail may be better positioned
to sustain overall in-destination spend despite softer room
revenue.
Homes & Condos: Vail vs. Peers
Vail: Occupancy down 7%, rates up 2%
Peers: Occupancy down 8%, rates FLAT
Vail’s homes and condos segment is performing slightly better
than its peers, with occupancy down 7% compared to peers
down 8% and rates up 2% while peer rates remain flat. This
suggests Vail is maintaining modest pricing strength while
demand trends remain broadly consistent across the mountain
vacation rental market.
Data is as of Feb. 28, 2026, for arrival dates between Dec. 1, 2025 - Apr. 30, 2026. The competitive set includes Aspen, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Crested Butte,
Jackson Hole, Keystone, Park City, Steamboat, and Winter Park.