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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEver Vail Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis 062410Memorandum To: File From: George Ruther, Director of Community Development Date: June 23, 2010 Re: Ever Vail Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Follow Up On June 18, 2010, the Economic and Planning Systems presented the preliminary findings on the Ever Vail Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis. The analysis was completed at the direction of the Vail Town Council in response to an Ever Vail Economic Report submitted by Vail Resorts Development Company. The purpose of the analysis is to review the conclusions of the Ever Vail Economic Report and to assess the economic and fiscal impacts of the proposed Ever Vail development application. Upon presentation of the preliminary analysis, a number of additional questions were raised. The purpose of this memorandum is to provide a written list of the those questions which still need to be addressed and identify the additional information that is need to complete the Ever Vail Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis. The proposed project has the ability to have a significant impact on the Town’s economic goals. To facilitate a positive economic outcome for the Town, what are the Town’s economic goals for retail, hotel development, free market residential development, deed-restricted residential development, professional and business office space and public parking? The preliminary conclusions of the Ever Vail Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis are based on development program assumptions which require approval of a request to rezone a portion of the development site. The economic conclusions of the report are forthcoming. How will the conclusions of the Ever Vail Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis be used in the consideration of the request to rezone a portion of the development site? How much additional retail square footage is economically supportable within the Town of Vail? Within Lionshead? At which point does saturation of retail square footage occur? Will rezoning more land in the Town of Vail to required retail square footage result in cannibalization of existing markets? If so, what is the absorption rate of additional retail square footage? What are the economic benefits that can be achieved by rezoning additional land in the Town of Vail that requires retail square footage? What is the anticipated revenue per square foot for the additional The economic issues associated with the Ever Vail project have not been fully analyzed and quantified. What are the economic issues that the Town of Vail should consider as the project advances through the development review process? The preliminary analysis realizes heavily upon many projected assumptions. For instance, 90% of the visitors to Ever Vail are projected to be net new visitors. In order to better understand the consequences of the decision making with the development review process, please clarify and test the assumptions utilized in the analysis. For example, 90% net new visitors, 60% of the hotel guests will be net new, etc. In testing the assumptions, please qualify and quantify the impact of the recently completed, or soon to be completed, residential and mixed use projects in the Town of Vail (Ritz-Carlton Residences, Four Seasons Hotel, Solaris, etc.). How many are really net new visitors and how much is shift in share market from elsewhere in the community? At the present time the Ever Vail project anticipates the construction of 400 new public parking spaces in a new structured parking garage. The Ever Vail project does not propose ski in access back to the portal. Instead, it is assumed most skiers will ski back into Town to a different portal from which they accessed the mountain. That said, what impact will this have on the public transit system? How does this impact sales at other portals in the Town of Vail? What issues, or unintended consequences should the decision makers evaluate when reviewing the development applications? Are there options that should be considered which would either maximize the benefits or minimize the negative impacts that the decision makers should be evaluate? For instance, summer time access to Vail Mountain. The term “peak population” is used within the analysis. Please define “peak population” and describe how it was determined? What correlations exist between peak population and the traffic count assumptions? What affects does “peak population” have on the Town’s public transit system? For instance, how many people are expected to access Vail Mountain from Ever Vail and then need to rely upon public transit to get then back? The development program assumptions indicate that it is estimated that the for-sale deed restrict dwelling units will sell for approximately $750,000 per unit. What market data was used to set the projected price? What is the net affect if the units sell for less? A phasing plan for the development of the site is required. Upon receipt of said plan, please quantify the net impact of the proposed phasing on the fiscal impacts reported within the analysis. Additionally, please identify what, if any, considerations the decision makers should evaluate when reviewing the phasing plan. The goal should be to maintain a net positive fiscal impact of the project from initial construction through build out and stabilization. Through the creation of the metropolitan district a service plan for the district is required. As presented, it is contemplated that the owners within the district will be financially obligated to maintain and operate much of the proposed infrastructure. Upon receipt of said plan, please quantify the net impact of the proposed service plan on the fiscal impacts report within the analysis? Please itemize the estimated annual expenditure for the various services provided. The plan shall also describe the anticipated level or standard of service contemplated. The fiscal analysis assumes that an average of $170 is collected per lodging tax transaction. That said, please clarify this assumption and provide per person data for sales tax collection correlated to the price paid for lodging. Please provide a comparison of the conclusion reported in the BBC economic and fiscal impact analysis that completed EPS. The comparison shall include a total cost projection for each of the reports.