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HomeMy WebLinkAbout15. Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-09-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of September 30, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,233 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 56.5% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2016/17 2015/16 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 51.5% 45.3%13.8% 10.4% $206 $183 12.3% 8.3% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 25.7% 18.9%35.7% 3.0% $176 $166 6.2% 8.5% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, November to March: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 18.2% 14.0%30.4% 7.3% $218 $192 13.7% 10.7% 32.9% 29.1%13.1% 10.7% $714 $651 9.6% 6.6% 35.2% 38.4%-8.1%11.4% $547 $523 4.7% 1.9% 34.6% 35.1%-1.5%4.3% $560 $533 4.9% 0.6% 38.0% 35.5%-8.7%6.3% $337 $317 6.5%-2.1% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Sep. 30, 2016 vs. Previous Year 6.9% 6.1%13.3% 7.0% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (September, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (September, 2015) for all arrival dates is up by (13.3%) Booking Pace (September): On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-1.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (4.9%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-8.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.5%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are up (13.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.6%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-8.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (4.7%). Occupancy January ADR January Occupancy Rates for next month (October, 2016) are up (35.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (6.2%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are up (30.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (13.7%). Occupancy November ADR November DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (September, 2016) were up (13.8%) compared to the same period last year (September, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (12.3%). Occupancy (September) : ADR (September) : MARKET OVERVIEW: With just one month left in the formal summer season, the peak months for warm weather travel to mountains are now behind us and winter is immediately ahead. Though potentially tumultuous, financial and consumer markets held on to strong performance through Brexit, challenges in Europe and Asia, and greater part of a contentious presidential campaign. September financial markets were essentially flat during the month, with the Dow Jones declining -0.5 percent at the end of September, and consumer confidence jumped to its highest level since September 2007, at 104.1 points. Though job creation was a little subdued and below expectations, employers added 156,000 jobs during the month and unemployment remained relatively low, now at 5.0 percent. These conditions, along with continued excellent marketing efforts by destinations, resulted in yet another all-time record month in September across mountain destinations. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for September was up 10.4 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was also up 8.3 percent for the month. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September was down -2.1 percent (not shown).Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 13.8 percent in September versus 2015, while rate increased 12.3 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (April - September) occupancy (not shown) was up 8.7 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 6.2 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September was down -14.1 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:The summer season is waning this month as October business, on-pace as of September 30th to set another all-time record, transition us to our traditional high season in mountain resorts. Financial markets are beginning to behave cautiously, as are employers, as a vitriolic election looms in the first week of November, and the economic fallout from Hurricane Matthew begins to be realized. While the economic impact of first-term presidencies is well-known, typified by a moderate slowing in financial markets, any predictions on how Election ’16 will impact the economy is not likely well-supported, so we’ll have to wait and see. And, while consumers are currently feeling better about the economy than they have in almost a decade, employers are slowing the pace of job creation, just in time for the winter and holiday hiring season. In a nutshell, then, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the economic outlook that will likely begin to unfold rapidly one way or the other in the coming 8 to 10 weeks. In the meantime, bookings for travel to mountain destinations for October and the first part of winter 2016/17 are very strong. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (October – March) is up 6.3 percent, while rate is also up 5.4 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during September for arrival September - February was up 7.0 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for October is up 35.7 percent with an inccrease in rate of 6.2 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in two of the five months while rates are up in all five of the months. Occupancy gains are led by October (35.7 percent) and November (30.4 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (October – March) in aggregate has increased 6.4 percent while rate has increased 5.3 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrival September through February was up 13.3 percent.