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HomeMy WebLinkAbout07. Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2017-12-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of December 31, 2017 Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,366 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 59.8% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2017/18 2016/17 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 49.4%60.8%-18.8%-2.1% $678 $686 -1.1%-1.4% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 56.5%64.3%-12.2%0.9% $600 $575 4.4%6.0% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, February to June: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 54.0%59.6%-9.4%2.9% $634 $607 4.5%4.3% 38.7%35.8%8.2%-2.2% $626 $579 8.0%7.9% 10.5%12.2%-13.7%1.9% $280 $254 10.0%3.0% 8.0%5.1%57.8%10.3% $158 $140 13.1%2.9% 23.1%18.9%22.0%6.5% $211 $207 2.1%0.1% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Dec. 31, 2017 vs. Previous Year 5.1%5.4%-5.9%-20.3% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Laura Waniuk, Event Marketing Liaison- Economic Development; (970) 477-3417 mailto:lwaniuk@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (December, 2017) were down (-18.8%) compared to the same period last year (December, 2016) , while Average Daily Rate was also down (-1.1%). Occupancy (December) : ADR (December) : Occupancy Rates for next month (January, 2018) are down (-12.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (4.4%). Occupancy (January) : ADR (January) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-9.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (4.5%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are up (8.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.0%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-13.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (10.0%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (57.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (13.1%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (22.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (2.1%). Occupancy June ADR June Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2017 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (December, 2017) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (December, 2016) for all arrival dates is down by (- 5.9%) Booking Pace (December): MARKET OVERVIEW: Following a troublesome fall riddled with numerous natural disasters on both sides of the country, December was the start of the winter season for many destinations. The holiday season further strengthened confidence in the US economy, with Mastercard SpendingPulse reporting a 4.9 percent i ncrease in retail sales from November 1st to December 24th compared to the same period in 2016. The Dow Jones was relatively flat, but mirrored the good feelings of the retail market, posting a 65.5-point gain, closing just under 25,000 at 24,837 points, marking the 71st record daily close of 2017. For comparison, December of 2016 closed just below 20,000 points. According to the CBOE Volatilit y Index, 2017 was marked as the least volatile year for trading since 1964. The Consumer Confidence Index experienced a slight decrease in December, now standing at 122.1 down 6.5 points from November’s 17-year high of 128.6. The U.S economy experienced growth of 148,000 jobs in December, continuing the trend of gaining jobs for the last 87 consecutive months. Unemployment remained unch anged at 4.1 percent in December, a measure some economists believe to be nearing “full employment”. Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -18.8 percent in December versus 2016, while there was a decrease in rate of -1.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (July-December) occupancy (not shown) was down -4.7 percent compared to the same period last year accompanied with an increase in rate of 0.3 percent. Bookings taken in December for arrival in December were down -39.6 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:The next six months include the critical peak months of the ski season, as well as the very early stages of the summer of 201 8. And, though we’re economically sound for the time being, with the Dow consistently setting records and employers keeping unemployment low with strong job creation, th e ski season is dependent on not only the economy, but snow. While the drive destinations of the northeast are pounded by snow and hounded by record cold temperatures, western resorts in the R ockies and Sierras are experiencing very dry and unseasonably warm weather that impacts their ability to draw on -mountain visitation that’s sustainable. But consumer confidence numbers are clear that consumers are feeling good about spending and the short -term direction of the economy, and room rate reflects this sentiment. Yet it should be no surprise that occupancy rates are decli ning and skier days are anecdotally suffering, so we’ll look to Mother Nature for some much-needed support as we head into bread-and-butter months.Locally, Vail on-the-books for January is down -12.2 percent accompanied with an increase in rate of 4.4 percent compared to this time last year. Year over year occupancy for February is down -9.4 percent. Occupancy for six months on-the-books (December-May) in aggregate has decreased -4.8 percent while rate has increased 2.9 percent. Bookings taken in November for arrival November -April were up 4.9 percent.