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HomeMy WebLinkAbout07. Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2018-01-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of January 31, 2018 Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,440 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 61.7% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2017/18 2016/17 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 60.1%72.3%-16.8%-4.4% $590 $581 1.6%7.3% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 64.7%72.5%-10.8%-4.8% $626 $622 0.7%5.9% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, March to July: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 49.0%51.1%-4.2%-5.8% $630 $606 3.9%6.9% 13.3%17.8%-25.2%6.4% $286 $282 1.3%-0.3% 8.5%6.3%35.6%16.4% $168 $158 6.5%12.5% 23.6%20.0%18.0%14.6% $215 $210 2.3%3.8% 20.1%21.7%-7.3%0.7% $266 $257 3.8%4.2% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jan. 31, 2018 vs. Previous Year 4.5%7.3%-37.8%-15.4% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Laura Waniuk, Event Marketing Liaison- Economic Development; (970) 477-3417 mailto:lwaniuk@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (January, 2018) were down (-16.8%) compared to the same period last year (January, 2017) , while Average Daily Rate was up (1.6%). Occupancy (January) : ADR (January) : Occupancy Rates for next month (February, 2018) are down (-10.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (0.7%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-4.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (3.9%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-25.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (1.3%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (35.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (6.5%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (18.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (2.3%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are down (-7.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (3.8%). Occupancy July ADR July Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2018 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (January, 2018) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (January, 2017) for all arrival dates is down by (-37.8%) Booking Pace (January): MARKET OVERVIEW: While January has brought some much-needed snow to western ski resorts, snow quantity is still a far cry from previous years’, creating angst for lodgers and ski companies alike at this midway point of the season. While the most immediate impact is on occupancy rates as they fall short compared to the same time last year, average daily rate continues to outperform last year. Fortunately, the economic wildcard is working in our favor. The Dow Jones experienced growth throughout January, closi ng at 26,076.89 points on the 31st, a 26.5 percent increase from last year at this time. Domestic job creation exceeded analysts’ expectations in January when 180,000 jobs were expected, yet 200,000 were created, and unemployment has stayed steady for the past 3 months at 4.1 percent, the lowest unemployment figure since 2000. Consumer confidence also beat expectations for January, increasing t o 125.4, a 2.7 percent increase from December, nearing the 17-year high of 128.6 set in November of 2017. In conjunction with other indicators showing a strong domestic economy, wages grew 2.9% from a year ago, the strongest wage growth since June of 2009, though there remains a long way to go. But with rising wages comes inflation and a need for the Federal Reserve to control it with interes t rate increases. Look for market volatility to persist over the coming months as the new Fed chair works to keep the economy growing manageably. Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -16.8 percent in January versus 2017, while there was an increase in rate of 1.6 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (August-January) occupancy (not shown) was down -8.7percent compared to the same period last year accompanied with a decrease in rate of -0.4 percent. Bookings taken in January for arrival in January were down -53.4 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:We look ahead to the second half of the ski season with the benefit of recent volatility in financial markets to help set our expectations. With wild swings on Wall Street in the very early part of February, some analysts are citing a new normal, while others look for stability as markets get used t o the idea of higher interest rates and rising wages. But most will agree that a full-scale correction to markets (-10 percent or greater) is long overdue and healthy. Whether consumers see it that way or not will remain to be seen. But market forces are only part of the issue. While late January and early February snowfall has improved conditions in some resorts, and others are having excellent seasons in their own right, there are many that continue to struggle with on-mountain product and healthy economic conditions are a supporting factor when snow is lacking, as we’ve seen in the past. In the mean time, strong Average Daily Rates at mountain lodging providers are offsetting the declines in occupancy and revenue is positive through the end of the season, though just barely, and the botto m line could go either way at this point.Locally, Vail on-the-books for February is down -10.8 percent accompanied with an increase in rate of 0.7 percent compared to this time last year. Year over year occupancy for March is down -4.2 percent. Occupancy for six months on-the-books (January-June) in aggregate has decreased -2.6 percent while rate has increased 1.8 percent. Bookings taken in January for arrival January -June were down -37.8 percent.