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Home My WebLink About09. DMX_Vail_Town_Council_2018-12-04-FVail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council Market Update December 4, 2018 Presented by Tom Foley | Data as of October 31, 2018 & November 15, 2018 2 1.Introduction 2.Market Update 3.Summer 2018 Update 4.Winter 2018/19 Outlook •Aspen •Avon, Colorado •Big Sky •Breckenridge •Beaver Creek •Copper •Gunnison/Crested Butte •Keystone •Jackson Hole •North Lake Tahoe •Snowmass •Steamboat •Park City Area •Summit County, CO •Sun Valley •Telluride •Vail •Winter Park Destinations included in Industry Wide Data Reports with data as of Oct. 31 & Nov. 15, 2018 include up to 27 properties representing up to 2,424 units 63.8% of 3,797 total community census 4 Vail Property Participation Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail International Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences 5 Antlers at Vail Arrabelle at Vail Square Christiania Lodge & Christiania Condos Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Hotel Talisa iTrip Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort 27 Vail Submitting Properties 6 1.Introduction 2.Market Update 3.Summer 2018 Update 4.Winter 2018/19 Outlook Dow Jones Confidence 7 Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment January ‘06 – October ‘18 24,324 126.4 4.0% Unemployment 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% Market Update: The Price of a Buck 8 Oct 2018: €1 EUR = $1.14 USD Jan 2014: €1 EUR = $1.36 USD Oct 2018: $1 CAD = $0.76 USD Jan 2014: $1 CAD = $0.94 USD Jan 2014: ₱10 = $0.77 USD Oct 2018: ₱10 = $0.50 USD 19% 16% 35% 9 Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment Last 12 Months 14 •Dow Jones: •~ 25,100 pts: varying broadly recently; “Red October”/ -1200 Nov 7-15 •+ 7.6% / 1,770.4 pts since last October •Record-setting gains in long-term •Major concerns around recent economic forecasts •+/- GM (-); Trade (-); Exchange Rates (-); Interest Rates (-) •Consumer Confidence •~ 135 pts: 16 months above 120 pts •Strongly favors suppliers of consumer goods •High Confidence = High Room, Activity, Event Rates •Responding to employment market; Watching Closely through Q4, Q1 ‘19 •+/- Consumer Spending (+); Lead Times (+); “Employment Cycle” (+) •Unemployment Rate / Jobs •3.7 percent: Near statistical ‘full employment’; Steady •Job Creation 225k 12MMA pacing flat •Watching Closely through Q4, Q1 ‘19 •+/- Holiday hiring is here (+); Earnings improving (+); Wall St. focused (-); 7m open positions to fill 10 1.Introduction 2.Market Update 3.Summer 2018 Update 4.Winter 2018/19 Outlook Occupancy Summer 2018 12 ADR Summer 2018 13 RevPAR Summer 2018 14 Daily Occupancy: Summer 2018 All West Vail Summer 2017 Summer 2018 YOY Pacing Summer 2017 Summer 2018 YOY Pacing OCCUPANCY 47.2% 48.3% +2.2% 49.0% 47.4% -3.3% RATE $232 $237 +2.5% $238 $244 +2.3% RevPAR $109 $115 +4.8% $117 $116 -1.1% 15 Summer 2017 & 2018 YTD Industry Wide vs. Vail 16 1.Introduction 2.Market Update 3.Summer 2018 Update 4.Winter 2018/19 Outlook 52.7% 57.4% 0%100% •Vail Summer 2018 Business In the Bank & •On the Books (% of 2017/18 total) 2018/19 53.2% 57.3% 0%100% 2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 Room Nights Room Nights Occupancy Winter 2018/19 19 ADR Winter 2018/19 20 RevPAR Winter 2018/19 21 Daily Occupancy: Winter 2018/19 As of November 15, 2018 Snow Days ‘17 Snow Days ‘18 Schools in Session MLK 2017 MLK 2018 Burton US Open 2019 All West Vail Winter ‘17/18 YTD Winter ‘18/19 YTD YOY Pacing Winter ‘17/18 YTD Winter ‘18/19 YTD YOY Pacing OCCUPANCY 24.6% 25.1% +2.2% 29.4% 26.3% -10.4% RATE $445 $445 -0.1% $558 $552 -1.2% RevPAR $110 $112 +2.0% $164 $145 -11.5% 22 Summer 2017 & 2018 YTD Industry Wide vs. Vail 23 YOY Occupancy Comparison: Winter 2018/19 24 YOY Occupancy Comparison: Winter 2018/19 25 YOY Rate Comparison: Winter 2018/19 26 Rate Comparison: Winter 2018/19 27 •Across Western Destinations, Rate (In)tolerance appears to be playing a role in occupancy gain / loss •5 Destinations dominate rate throughout the season, including Vail •Of the 4 other destinations: •2 have primarily small rate gains & moderate-to-strong occupancy declines – rate sensitivity •1 has primarily moderate rate declines & strong occupancy gains – rate sensitivity •1 has primarily high rate increases & primarily high occupancy declines – rate pushback •Vail has primarily moderate rate declines & primarily moderate occupancy declines – rate sensitivity •Supporting patterns are apparent in destinations that are not rate -dominant Comparative Performance Commentary Thank you!