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HomeMy WebLinkAbout18. Vail Executive Summary through 2017-05-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of May 31, 2017 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,096 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 53.0% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2016/17 2015/16 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 25.0%24.0%4.5%1.6% $192 $151 26.9%6.7% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 45.1%47.1%-4.3%0.8% $231 $205 12.9%6.9% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, July to November: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 46.8%43.4%7.8%-1.8% $276 $261 5.8%8.4% 28.5%31.9%-10.6%2.0% $280 $269 4.3%13.5% 20.4%22.4%-8.9%-0.5% $209 $196 6.4%8.0% 10.3%7.9%30.5%11.1% $233 $166 40.4%6.7% 3.8%3.6%6.3%9.9% $191 $223 -14.2%-1.9% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: May. 31, 2017 vs. Previous Year 5.0%5.1%-2.5%-2.6% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (May, 2017) were up (4.5%) compared to the same period last year (May, 2016) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (26.9%). Occupancy (May) : ADR (May) : Occupancy Rates for next month (June, 2017) are down (-4.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (12.9%). Occupancy (June) : ADR (June) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (7.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (5.8%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are down (-10.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (4.3%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are down (-8.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.4%). Occupancy September ADR September On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are up (30.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (40.4%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are up (6.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-14.2%). Occupancy November ADR November Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2017 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (May, 2017) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (May, 2016) for all arrival dates is down by (-2.5%)Booking Pace (May): MARKET OVERVIEW: May brings us the first “official” month of the summer season and the fundamental shift that takes place in mountain communit ies as they transition from winter sport. Financial markets during May were uninspired as Wall Street, employers and consumers are all reflecting the uncertainty in Wa shington. The Dow Jones was essentially flat during the month, though remained at near-record territory at just over 21,000 points. Meanwhile, employers failed to deliver the goods, adding an anemi c 138,000 jobs, with both March and April adjusted downward. And all this is reflected in a decline in consumer confidence, down to 117.9 points from over 119 in April, but still in a strong pos ition. While the numbers remain very strong, the past 3 months have been underwhelming as the economy holds its collective breath. None of this seemed to have much impact on mountain resort travele rs in May as both occupancy and rate increased across the mountain communities. Based on aggregate data from all West DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for May was up 1.6 percent versus th e same time last year, while rate was up 6.7 percent for the month. Bookings taken in May for arrival in May were up 3.1 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 4.5 percent in May versus 2016, accompanied by an increase in rate of 26.9 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (December -May) occupancy (not shown) was up 1.2 percent compared to the same per iod last year accompanied with an increase in rate of 9.9 percent. Bookings taken in May for arrival in May were up 11.7 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:We look forward to the coming months with little clarity on where the economy, and therefore travel consumer behavior, will g o. Though financial markets remain at or near record levels, policy implementation out of Washington is non-existent and investors are watching and waiting to see which way things go. Employers are feeling the tension as well, with weaker job performance and a shrinking workforce that’s experiencing lower wa ges than expected, neither of which is good for consumerism, while consumers look for increasing earnings that aren’t showing up. How things play out over the coming 90 to 120 days is anyone’s guess, but the point at which markets and consumers are stalled makes a negative response potentially very bad, while a positive would signal incredi ble economic strength. In the meantime, booking patters in mountain communities remain unchanged from the winter, with mixed occupancy performance while rate skyrockets. Ba sed on the aggregate of West DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books occupancy for the upcoming six months (June -November) is slightly up 0.9 percent, while rate is up 8.6 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during May for arrival May –October were down -2.6 percent compared to the same period last year. Locally, Vail on-the-books for June is down -4.3 percent while there was an increase in rate of 12.9 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, econo mics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in three of the five months while rates are up in four of the five months. Year ove r year occupancy gains are led by October (30.5 percent) and then July (7.8 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (June -November) in aggregate has decreased -2.7 percent while rate has increased 8.6 percent. Bookings taken in May for arrival May -October were down -4.4 percent.