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HomeMy WebLinkAbout06. Vail Executive Summary through 2017-08-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of August 31, 2017 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,096 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 53.0% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2017/18 2016/17 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 58.6%59.9%-2.0%-1.2% $262 $255 2.5%9.7% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 42.6%44.4%-4.0%0.0% $222 $208 6.6%6.9% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, October to February: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 17.6%17.5%0.8%7.3% $177 $168 5.5%8.4% 7.9%12.8%-38.5%-5.5% $227 $214 6.2%6.1% 21.8%25.2%-13.3%-6.4% $658 $706 -6.8%3.0% 24.1%28.6%-15.7%0.1% $626 $542 15.5%11.3% 25.7%28.9%-10.9%0.7% $597 $547 9.0%11.3% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Aug. 31, 2017 vs. Previous Year 6.1%8.1%-24.9%-10.4% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2017 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (August, 2017) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (August, 2016) for all arrival dates is down by (-24.9%)Booking Pace (August): On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-15.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (15.5%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-10.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (9.0%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-38.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.2%). Occupancy November ADR November On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-13.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-6.8%). Occupancy December ADR December Occupancy Rates for next month (September, 2017) are down (-4.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (6.6%). Occupancy (September) : ADR (September) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are up (0.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (5.5%). Occupancy October ADR October DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (August, 2017) were down (-2.0%) compared to the same period last year (August, 2016) , while Average Daily Rate was up (2.5%). Occupancy (August) : ADR (August) : MARKET OVERVIEW: The economy continued to grow, but took a moderate shift to the flatter side of the spectrum in August, with financial market s essentially flat, while job creation and consumer confidence kept pace with recent months. The Dow Jones added a very slight 0.3 percent in Au gust, though remained in record territory despite the low gains, and showed ongoing resilience to policy challenges in Washington and geopolitical rhetoric. Employers showed this same resilience, adding more than 150,000 jobs during the month, while consumer confidence rose to its second-highest level since December 2000. Wildfires in the Western US and Canada remained widespread, and ski areas have been spared any direct impact for the most part this year, but the fires are such that smoke i s widespread through the entire western region, including at altitute, and whether this impacted occupancy rates, which declined slightly year over year, is not clear. However, mountain destination lodging peformance is still reflective of the strong employment and consumer markets, with strong gains in rate and revenue.Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -2.0 percent in August versus 2016, while there was an increase in rate of 2.5 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (March -August) occupancy (not shown) was slightly up 0.8 percent compared to the same period last year accompanied with an increase in rate of 4.4 percent. Bookings taken in August for arrival in August were slightly down -1.1 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:We have moved into what DestiMetrics considers the ‘new’ fall season, where mountain resorts have found incredible growth in September and October in recent years. With a strong economy and a peak summer season that saw little or no direct impact from wildfires, this growth should be expected to continue. But global and domestic politics are breaking new ground or, in some cases, revisiting an era-gone-by, and how markets and consumers will react to them is an unknown; thus far the impact has been little, if any. However, there may be some impact from the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas in late August and will have the attention of both travelers from and to that market for some time. While not all destinations see Texas as a large source for visitation, the Colorado, and to a lesser extent, Utah, resorts may see some negative impact as Texans in the south deal with cleanup. Additionally, we’ll be looking to see what fallout Hurricane Irma has on the market and whether beach snowbirds consider mountain alternatives while recovery takes place in the southeast. Locally, Vail on- the-books for September is down -4.0 percent accompanied with an increase in rate of 6.6 percent compared to this time last year . For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in one of the five months while rates are up in four of the five months. Year over year occupancy gains are led by October (0.8 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (September -February) in aggregate has decreased -13.5 percent while rate has increased 2.8 percent. Bookings taken in August for arrival August - January were up 5.1 percent.