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HomeMy WebLinkAbout18. Vail Executive Summary through 2018-03-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of March 31, 2018 Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,438 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 61.7% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2017/18 2016/17 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 67.2%68.8%-2.2%0.5% $605 $632 -4.3%1.1% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 24.8%32.1%-22.6%4.2% $280 $289 -2.9%-0.9% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, May to September: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 14.3%12.1%18.6%15.1% $170 $160 6.3%6.5% 35.4%30.2%17.1%12.3% $222 $220 1.0%2.9% 31.0%32.8%-5.6%1.2% $284 $268 5.7%4.7% 22.7%20.4%11.3%1.6% $284 $267 6.3%-3.3% 15.6%14.9%4.7%-1.8% $212 $205 3.7%1.0% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Mar. 31, 2018 vs. Previous Year 5.7%6.6%-13.7%12.4% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Laura Waniuk, Event Marketing Liaison- Economic Development; (970) 477-3417 mailto:lwaniuk@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (March, 2018) were down (-2.2%) compared to the same period last year (March, 2017) , while Average Daily Rate was also down (-4.3%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : Occupancy Rates for next month (April, 2018) are down (-22.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also down (-2.9%). Occupancy (April) : ADR (April) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (18.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (6.3%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (17.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (1.0%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are down (-5.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (5.7%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (11.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (6.3%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (4.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (3.7%). Occupancy September ADR September Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2018 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (March, 2018) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (March, 2017) for all arrival dates is down by (-13.7%)Booking Pace (March): MARKET OVERVIEW: The DestiMetrics lodging market data for the West reflected growth in both occupancy and rate for March. While the lodging s ector performance grew in March, March brought some volatility to financial markets, which may have been partially due to a change in leadership in the Federal Rese rve and tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum were announced. Though the implementation of tariffs was in hopes of promoting domestic job growth, jobs created in March did not reach analysts’ expect ations of 185,000, landing short at 103,000. March marked the 90th consecutive month of job growth, corresponding with unemployment remaining unchanged since October at 4.1 percent, its lowest level since 2000. While year over year wage growth has increased 2.7 percent over the past year, current wage growth figures are still below pre -recession levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average c losed the month of March at 24,103.1 points, marking the second consecutive monthly decline since January’s peak of 26,149. U.S. consumer confidence declined in March to 127.7, falling bel ow expectations of 131 (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -2.2 percent in March versus 2017, while there was a decrease in rate of -4.3 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (October-March) occupancy (not shown) was down -8.7 percent compared to the same period last year accompanied with a decrease in rate of -2.1 percent. Bookings taken in March for arrival in March were up 21.9 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:The economic outlook for the next eight months is healthy according to the key economic indicators. The most critical indicat or is the gross domestic product. The GDP growth rate is expected to remain between the 2 percent to 3 percent ideal range, while inflation remains relatively stable, though that is expected to change as interest rates climb in the coming months. Unemployment is forecasted to remain relatively unchanged near statistical unemployment of 4 percent. However, we ca ution that both domestic and global trade and politics are highly influential factors in how these metrics perform, and current instability in both of these arenas compels us to be extremely conservative about the ongoing predictability of economic conditions. Currently, the continued positive US economic story is translating into a notable increase in booking pace through June 2018 and based on an aggregate of DestiMetrics west industry wide data, on - the-books occupancy for the upcoming summer season (April -September) is showing a notable seasonal increase of 5.0 percent over the same time last year. Rate has also increased slightly at 1.5 percent compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during March for arrival March –August were up significantly at 11.6 percent compared to the same period last year. After a rocky winter season it appears that lodgers are back in the driver seat and poised for a banner summer season. Locally, Vai l on-the-books for April is down -22.6 percent accompanied with a decrease in rate of -2.9 percent compared to this time last year. Year over year occupancy for May is up 18.6 percent. Occupancy for si x months on-the-books (April-September) in aggregate has increased 0.4 percent while rate has increased 1.0 percent. Bookings taken in March for arrival March -August were down -13.7 percent.