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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMTRIP-Vail Town Council 7 17 12 finalSeasonal Review -Preview Vail Town Council July 17, 2012 1 INDEX Looking Back: Winter 2011/12 (as of 4/30/2012)Econometrics (as of 6/30/2012)Looking Forward: Summer 2012 (as of 5/31/2012) Seasonal Review-Preview 2 •Aspen •Avon •Breckenridge •Beaver Creek •Copper •Keystone •Mt Bachelor •Mammoth Lakes •North Lake Tahoe •South Lake Tahoe •Snowmass •Park City Area •Steamboat •Summit County (Dillon, Frisco, Silverthorne)•Telluride •Vail •Winter Park 3 2012 Destinations 3 Mountain Travel Intelligence Pack Travel News Talker Mountain Travel Newsletter Econometrics Mountain Market Briefing MTRiP.org Rooms Available Rooms Booked Avg. Price Data Center Participating Properties 4 •Antlers at Vail •Arrabelle at Vail Square •Destination Resorts •Evergreen Lodge •Four Seasons Vail •Lion Square Lodge •Lodge at Lionshead •Lodge at Vail •Lodge Tower •Manor Vail •Montaneros •Ritz Carlton Residences –Vail Resorts Legendary Lodging •Sonnenalp •The Sebastian •Sitzmark Lodge •Vail Cascade Condos •Vail Cascade Resort •Vail International •Vail Mountain Lodge •Vail Racquet Club •Vail Marriott •Vail Spa •Westwind Vail Participation Reports with data as of April 30, 2012 represent:24 properties representing 2,336 units 63% of total community census 5 Data as of April 30, 2012 6 55%27%59%66%72%75%31%56%20%56%67%73%73%38%55%36%6%-1%-1%2%-19%1%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%NovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilWinter Tot al Occupancy Rate & % Chg in Occup Rate Historic Actual Occup. Rate (2010/11 season)Occup. Rate as of: April 30, 2012 (2011/12 season)Occup. Rate as of: April 30, 2011 (2010/11 season)Percent Change in YTD Occ. Rate 7 Vail Occupancy Winter 2011/2012 Data as of April 30, 2012 Industry: 7 $143 $479 $411 $440 $428 $287 $402 $138 $412 $385 $432 $422 $202 $374 $374 4%16%7%2%1%42%8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 NovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilWinter Tot al Percent Change in ADR ADR ADR as of: April 30, 2012 (2011/12 season)ADR as of: April 30, 2011 (2010/11 season)Historic Actual ADR (2010/11 season)Percent Change in YTD ADR 8 Vail Average Daily Rate Winter 2011/2012 Data as of April 30, 2012 Industry: 8 -4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%Month of Measurement YOY % Chg Occupancy YOY % Change ADR YOY % Change RevPAR Progressive Winter Occupancy Rate and RevPAR 27%59%66%72%75%31%40%56%74%69%66%42%22%54%67%63%65%38%21%49%55%61%63%33%20%46%53%59%62%28%19%42%51%58%61%27%17%41%48%56%56%25%16%41%46%53%52%22%15%38%43%50%52%20%15%37%43%47%45%19%14%36%39%47%45%19%13%36%37%42%45%18%13%34%32%40%45%16%8%34%28%38%43%9%16%43%49%54%53%23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12 Occupancy Rate %Vail Other Individual Destinations All Destination Aggregate Occupancy Vail vs. Other Mtn Destinations Data as of April 30, 2012 10 Historic On the Books Rate Vail vs. Other Mtn Destinations 11 Data as of April 30, 2012 11 $143 $479 $411 $440 $428 $287 $192 $557 $409 $455 $492 $259 $163 $498 $392 $419 $393 $222 $154 $407 $377 $381 $391 $206 $149 $383 $355 $348 $384 $201 $148 $355 $278 $290 $293 $196 $137 $351 $270 $279 $265 $180 $135 $347 $246 $260 $253 $173 $128 $292 $227 $252 $239 $172 $123 $291 $214 $227 $220 $160 $122 $230 $194 $197 $217 $146 $120 $218 $159 $175 $213 $137 $111 $203 $155 $171 $194 $133 $101 $200 $153 $166 $177 $126 $135 $363 $307 $314 $315 $189 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12 Average Daily Rate $Vail Other Individual Destinations All Destination Aggregate -70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%29-Oct-11 5-Nov-11 12-Nov-11 19-Nov-11 26-Nov-11 3-Dec-11 10-Dec-11 17-Dec-11 24-Dec-11 31-Dec-11 7-Jan-12 14-Jan-12 21-Jan-12 28-Jan-12 4-Feb-12 11-Feb-12 18-Feb-12 25-Feb-12 3-Mar-12 10-Mar-12 17-Mar-12 24-Mar-12 31-Mar-12 7-Apr-12 14-Apr-12 21-Apr-12 28-Apr-12 Occupancy Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)2011/12 YTD vs. 2010/11 YTD as of 4/30 (22-23 prope rties)2011/12 - as of 4/30/12 (23 properties included)2010/11 - as of 4/30/11 (22 properties included)2010/11 - historic actuals (23 properties included)2011/12 YTD vs. 2010/11 YTD as of 3/31 (22-23 prope rties)2011/12 Major Events 2010/11 Major Events Report Date: 4/30/12 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 2011/2012 12 Vail Snow Daze Vail Holidaze Teva Games (Feb. 9 –12)Easter 2012 2011: Easter/ Closing Day/Spring Back MLK Thanksgiving President’s Day (Feb. 21)2012: Closing Day/Spring Back 13 MTRiP: Res Activity Outlook + 9% Increase TOV: All Store Winter Lodging Tax + 9.3 % Increase Seasonal Benchmark Comparison Recap: Winter –11-12 (as of 04/30/12)14 Overall: Economic / Weather “Flip Flop”o Weather:Anomaly? Black Swan?o Economics: Strongest economy since December of 2007 Occupancy: Strong start, slowed by weather; stronger than most Rate: Momentum from Summer 2011 carried over Properties held rate throughout the season Lessons of last 3 years applied Destination Stability: The Farther the Better International/National/Regional/Local Techno Marketing is Strategic:o Search/Mobile/Flash/Social Distribution Smack Down 51.0 53.2 48.6 49.9 54.3 53.3 64.8 72.0 63.8 66.0 61.7 57.6 59.2 45.2 46.4 40.9 55.2 64.8 61.5 71.6 69.5 68.7 64.4 62.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Index (Base year and calc. method varies by series)"Consumer Confidence Index"June '11 June Source: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index July ‘10–June ‘12 16