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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2012-09-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Sep 30, 2012 . Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,320 Units ('MTRiP Census'*) and 59% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2012/132011/12 Vail Year over Year % Diff MTRiP Industry Wide Year over Year 41.4%37.5%10.5%3.2% $154$149 3.1%0.2% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 16.8%15.4%9.3%16.9% $130$132 -1.2%4.6% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, November to March: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 11.8%11.6%1.6%8.1% $147$145 1.6%1.4% 27.8%31.4%-11.5%-11.6% $483$500 -3.5%-0.1% 34.6%36.7%-5.7%-2.3% $436$423 3.0%8.2% 32.7%27.8%17.8%12.9% $425$435 -2.5%2.3% 33.3%32.8%-8.0%-9.9% $259$252 6.1%8.1% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Sep. 30, 2012 vs. Previous Year 6.0%7.0%-13.0%-3.9% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454; kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar MTRiP, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@mtrip.org www.mtrip.org DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail MTRiP participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (September, 2012) were up (10.5%) compared to the same period last year (September, 2011) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (3.1%). Occupancy (September) : ADR (September) : Occupancy Rates for next month (October, 2012) are up (9.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is down (-1.2%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are up (1.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (1.6%). Occupancy November ADR November On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-11.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-3.5%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-5.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (3.0%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are up (17.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-2.5%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-8.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.1%). Occupancy March ADR March Produced by MTRiP Copyright © 2009 - MTRiP, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (September, 2012) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (September, 2011) for all arrival dates is down by (-13.0%) Booking Pace (September) : MARKET OVERVIEW: September’s economic environment was positive in most all respects as financial and consumer markets reflected an upbeat tempo from Wall to Main Street. The Down Jones hit a 3 year high in September, while national unemployment reached its lowest level since January, 2009. Consumers, feelingmore optimistic about earnings and the short-term business outlook, boosted confidence above 70 points for only the third time this year. One benefactor of all this is mountain destination travel. Based on data aggregated from 16 participating western destinations, occupancy in September was up 3.2 percent versus September, 2011, while ADR continued its 12 month streak, gaining 0.2 percent versus last year. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September were essentially flat, declining a very slight -0.1 percent. Locally, Vail occupancy was up a moderate 10.5 percent in September versus 2011, with a somewhat increase in rate of 3.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (April -September) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2011 increasing a 2.6 percent while rate increased a somewhat 8.6 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September were down -10.5 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:The winter game is at-hand and we look ahead with a mixture of excitement and caution, seeing both economic threats and opportunities on the horizon. With the upcoming federal election we hope that historic trends prevail and financial and consumer markets will bump in the 60 days that follow. The holiday shopping season and its related jobs are also hopeful but may be limited depending on the conversion rate of seasonal employees to full-time. The biggest wildcard, however, is the ‘fiscal cliff’ on January 1st, which has the potential to undo most, if not all recent recovery progress. Bookings for the season at the aggregate level or similarly mixed. Based on data aggregated from our western destinations, occupancy on-the-books for October ’12 –March ’13 is up a very slight 0.5 percent compared to the same period in 2011/12, while rate is up slightly 1.7 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrival September –February are down moderately -3.9 percent. Locally, Vail on-the-books Occupancy for October is up considerably 9.3 percent with a slight decrease in rate of -1.2 percent compared to October 2011. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in two of the five months while rates are down in two of five. Occupancy gains are led by February (17.8 percent). Overall the six months on-the-books (October -March) show occupancy down -0.8 percent and a slight rate decrease of -0.7 percent. Bookingstaken in September for arrival September through February are down - 13.0 percent, with gains in one of the six months in scope.