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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2012-10-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Oct 31, 2012 . Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,233 Units ('MTRiP Census'*) and 56.5% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2012/132011/12 Vail Year over Year % Diff MTRiP Industry Wide Year over Year 22.6%20.9%8.2%8.8% $129$129 0.1%5.6% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 22.6%19.7%15.0%10.3% $145$144 0.7%2.7% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, December to April: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 36.8%41.1%-10.5%-12.4% $465$495 -6.1%0.6% 43.7%46.4%-5.8%-0.7% $433$416 4.2%7.2% 40.8%34.5%18.5%9.5% $433$440 -1.7%2.8% 27.0%29.7%-9.2%-7.8% $420$410 2.4%6.6% 35.6%34.4%-1.7%-13.4% $264$269 -22.7%-16.7% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Oct. 31, 2012 vs. Previous Year 8.0%7.7%3.8%-3.3% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454; kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar MTRiP, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@mtrip.org www.mtrip.org Produced by MTRiP Copyright © 2009 - MTRiP, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (October, 2012) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (October, 2011) for all arrival dates is up by (3.8%) Booking Pace (October) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-9.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (2.4%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-1.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-22.7%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-5.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (4.2%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are up (18.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-1.7%). Occupancy February ADR February Occupancy Rates for next month (November, 2012) are up (15.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (0.7%). Occupancy (November) : ADR (November) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-10.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-6.1%). Occupancy December ADR December DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail MTRiP participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (October, 2012) were up (8.2%) compared to the same period last year (October, 2011) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (0.1%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : MARKET OVERVIEW: The weeks leading up to the federal election in early November saw a combination of waxing and waning momentum, as stock marketshit 5 year highs, consumer confidence continued its upward trend and the unemployment rate dipped –and stayed –below the 8 percent point for the first time since January 2008. Perhaps some of the momentum we’ve seen in the mountain travel industry this summer is rubbing off on the greater economy? Not likely, but the summer seasonhas closed out with a bang at MTRiP destinations. Based on data aggregated from 16 participating western destinations, occupancy in October was up 8.8 percent versus October, 2011, while ADR continued its 12 month streak, gaining 5.6 percent versus last year. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October were down somewhat -6.4 percent. Locally, Vail occupancy was up a moderate 8.2 percent in October versus 2011, with a slight increase in rate of 0.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (May -October) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2011 increasing by 6.7 percent while rate increased a moderate 3.6 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October were up a considerable 5.1 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:The road ahead is perhaps murkier than it has been for several years. Uncertainty surrounding the ‘fiscal cliff’, a combinationof tax increases and spending cuts that will automatically engage in January if legislators are not able to reach agreement on the economic path forward, is looming large. Dramatic drops in the Dow as investors turn their attention toward Washington, have already had an impact, while the effect on consumers to remain confident and employers to continue hiring remains unknown until the end of the month. Some of this uncertainty is reflected in MTRiP’s winter data, as critical high-volume months slump and consumers wonder what’s next. Based on data aggregated from our western destinations, occupancy on-the-books for November 2012 –April 2013 is down -3.9 percent compared to the same period in 2011/12, while rate is up a moderate 2.3 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival October –March are down -3.3 percent. Locally, Vail on-the-books Occupancy for November is up a sharp 15.0 percent with a slight increase in rate of 0.7 percent compared to November 2011. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in one of the five months while rates are down in three of five. Occupancy gains are led by February (18.5 percent). Overall the six months on-the-books (November -April) show occupancy down -0.8 percent and a slight rate decrease of -2.5 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival October through March are up 3.8 percent, with gains in three of the six months in scope.