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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2013-10-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Oct 31, 2013 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,317 Units ('MTRiP Census'*) and 58.6% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 20142013 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % 27.4%22.1%24.0%8.8% $140$129 8.5%7.9% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 25.4%22.6%12.3%7.1% $153$145 5.6%2.7% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, December to April: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 39.0%36.8%6.1%10.3% $504$465 8.3%6.6% 46.4%43.7%6.0%7.7% $446$433 3.0%2.7% 44.9%40.8%9.9%4.1% $443$433 2.4%4.7% 29.3%27.0%8.7%13.6% $479$420 14.0%7.2% 37.0%35.2%-0.9%16.9% $278$264 22.9%8.3% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Oct. 31, 2013 vs. Previous Year 8.0%8.0%-0.3%2.2% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (October, 2013) were up (24.0%) compared to the same period last year (October, 2012) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (8.5%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : Occupancy Rates for next month (November, 2013) are up (12.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (5.6%). Occupancy (November) : ADR (November) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are up (6.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.3%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are up (6.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (3.0%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are up (9.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (2.4%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are up (8.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (14.0%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-0.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (22.9%). Occupancy April ADR April Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2013 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (October, 2013) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (October, 2012) for all arrival dates is down by (-0.3%) Booking Pace (October) : MARKET OVERVIEW:We leave October behind with, from an economic point of view, a sigh of relief. The partial shutdown of the federal government,and the debt ceiling negotiations that accompanied it, provided good reason to feel edgy about the economy. Though the full impact of these events is not yet realized, we do know that employers far exceeded expectations for the month, while conversely consumers dropped their confidence level to its lowest since the early part of 2013. Amidst all of this, Wall Street was apathetic, paying closer attention to earning statement than Washington and for the most part confident that clearer heads would prevail and, if they did not, the Federal Reserve would continue to be there. Despite the decline in consumer confidence, only a moderate impact was felt in the mountain travel industry. Based on aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for October is up 8.8 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is also up 7.9 percent for the month. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October were up 11.0 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up a dramatic 24.0 percent in October versus 2012, with an increase in rate of 8.5 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (May -October) occupancy (not shown) was up a moderate compared to 2012 increasing by 3.4 percent while rate also increased by 2.8 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October were up 21.0 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:We are looking ahead to the holiday shopping and travel season with mixed emotions as consumer behavior and confidence –seemingly more acutely aware of the economy than Wall Street is –sit on a teeter-totter, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Though government has bought enough time to supportretailers through the holiday shopping season, round two of budget and debt ceiling negotiations will come up in January and February 2014, respectively. Fortunately for the mountain travel business, good snow equity from last season and fresh snow in many resorts have consumers buzzing and rooms being booked. Some surprising jumps in rate over the holidays seem to be holding fast as lodgerstest the marketplace and, at least for the next eight weeks, we can breathe more easily and look to recover what was lost last December. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (November –April) is up 8.7 percent, while rate is also up somewhat 5.1 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during October for arrival October –March are up 2.2 percent compared to the same period in 2012/13.Locally, Vail on-the-books Occupancy for November is up 12.3 percent with an increase in rate of 5.6 percent compared to 2012. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in four of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by February (9.9 percent) and March (8.7 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (November -April) in aggregate has increased 7.2 percent while rate has also increased by 6.2 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival October through March are down -0.3 percent, with gains in four of the six months in scope.