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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2014-01-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Jan 31, 2014 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,487 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 62.9% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2013/142012/13 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % 67.7%65.7%3.1%2.7% $478$449 6.4%5.1% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 74.0%70.6%4.8%-1.8% $484$454 6.7%6.2% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, March to July: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 56.3%53.0%6.1%6.8% $492$456 7.9%5.8% 16.2%15.0%7.8%14.5% $240$212 13.5%1.8% 6.0%6.6%-10.2%18.4% $133$119 12.3%8.7% 13.6%14.1%-3.2%16.9% $163$152 6.8%0.6% 38.5%36.1%20.8%8.2% $356$332 8.5%8.8% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jan. 31, 2014 vs. Previous Year 6.5%9.1%-28.3%-6.2% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (January, 2014) were up (3.1%) compared to the same period last year (January, 2013) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (6.4%). Occupancy (January) : ADR (January) : Occupancy Rates for next month (February, 2014) are up (4.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (6.7%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are up (6.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (7.9%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are up (7.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (13.5%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are down (-10.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (12.3%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are down (-3.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.8%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (20.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.5%). Occupancy July ADR July Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2014 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (January, 2014) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (January, 2013) for all arrival dates is down by (-28.3%) Booking Pace (January) : MARKET OVERVIEW:January was punctuated by a reversal in economic performance, with the Dow Jones declining sharply, while consumer confidence, driven in part by the stability that comes with a federal budget agreement, increasing during the month. Amidst this shift were employers, who remained out of the picture, adding just 113,000 new jobs during the month and extending the very low job growth to two consecutive months. Concern over earnings contributed strongly to the declines in the Dow, as did a senseof over-valuation of the market after a meteoric 2013 in which the market increased by 19.8 percent. Stagnant job creation was due, in part, to the extreme cold in many parts of the country, which kept retailers struggling to open store and construction crews off-site. Mountain travel was also a mixed bag, as stiflingly cold weather extremes in the east were mirrored by warm extremes and droughtin the far west, while the Rockies received good snow coverage at most resorts. Though bookings in January were slower than last year, business for the most part was positive and, based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for January is up 2.7 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is also up 5.1 percent for the month. Bookings taken in Januaryfor arrival in January was down -0.8 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up a moderate 3.1 percent in January versus 2013, with an increase in rate of 6.4 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (August -January) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2012/13 increasing by 7.3 percent while rate also increased by 6.9 percent. Bookings taken in January for arrival in January were down -29.7 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:February presents us with an economic environment that we haven’t experienced in several years, with both federal budget and debt ceiling agreements in place as of February 11. With modest immediate impact on financial marketplaces, we look to both consumerism and employment as the chief beneficiariesofthe resulting stability, hoping to see job creation move back up to the 200,000+ per month level that we saw through mid and late 2013. Such an increase will impact consumers, who remain fickle. LateJanuary snow in the Rockies, accompanied by significant early February snowfall in the far west, should provide some booking incentive, especially in those resorts experiencing a drought this season,leaving it up to marketeers to ensure that the word gets out to the client base in a timely and broad manner. Whether the shift in East to very late April –in many cases after scheduled closing day –is beneficial or not will remain to be seen. In the meantime, the future is bright for the ski season. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (February –July) is up 5.9 percent, while rate is also up 6.0 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during January for arrival January –June are down-6.2 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Locally, Vail on-the- books Occupancy for February is up 4.8 percent with an increase in rate of 6.7 percent compared to 2013. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in three of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by March (6.1 percent), April (7.8 percent) and July (20.8 percent). Occupancy for six months on- the-books (February -July) in aggregate has increased 5.6 percent while rate has also increased by 7.7 percent. Bookings takenin January for arrival January through June are down -28.3.