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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2014-02-28Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Feb 28, 2014 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,494 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 63.1% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2013/142012/13 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % 76.2%76.1%0.2%-0.6% $499$464 7.4%7.1% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 66.9%66.6%0.6%4.6% $495$451 9.8%7.7% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, April to August: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 20.9%18.4%14.0%17.2% $248$220 12.5%3.9% 9.3%7.6%23.3%14.2% $132$122 8.9%6.5% 19.6%17.3%13.0%17.5% $167$153 9.5%1.3% 21.3%18.2%16.9%7.2% $212$197 7.6%10.4% 37.9%35.2%19.8%7.3% $372$350 -0.3%6.2% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Feb. 28, 2014 vs. Previous Year 6.0%5.4%10.8%9.7% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2014 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (February, 2014) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (February, 2013) for all arrival dates is up by (10.8%) Booking Pace (February) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (16.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (7.6%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (19.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-0.3%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (23.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.9%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (13.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.5%). Occupancy June ADR June Occupancy Rates for next month (March, 2014) are up (0.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (9.8%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are up (14.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (12.5%). Occupancy April ADR April DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (February, 2014) were up (0.2%) compared to the same period last year (February, 2013) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (7.4%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : MARKET OVERVIEW:Once again we finish a month with a mixed bag of econometrics in February, with consumers and markets going in divergent directions but things trending in the right direction overall. Financial markets recovery most of their January losses during the month as Wall Street reacted to fiscal policy milestones in the form of debt ceiling and budget agreements in Washington over the past 45 days. Employers were also positive during the month, creating 175,000 new jobs and only just falling short of the twelve month average. Consumers, however, were still showing reluctance, showing signs of a hangover from bad numbers the previous month and expressing concern about the short-term business and earnings environment. The weather wildcard was positive in most regions with heavy snowfall in the Rockies and drought-ridden far west, though eastern resorts were hamstrung by continued extremes. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for February is down a slight -0.6 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 7.1 percent for the month. Bookingstaken in February for arrival in February was up 12.4 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up a slight 0.2 percent in February versus 2013, with an increase in rate of 7.4 percent. Vail'saggregate historic six month (September -February) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2012/13 increasing by 7.1 percent while rate also increased by 6.4 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February were down -32.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:The outlook for March is perhaps one of the most optimistic in some time. Positive job creation and a rebound in financial markets should bode well for consumer confidence, which has been searching for a sweet spot in recent months. On a cautionary note, we are marking the five year anniversary of the stock market recovery, which began on March 9, 2009, during which time we’ve not experienced a standard 10 percent correction, usually occurring once every 17 to 20 months and making us about 40 months overdue. While there is no sure way to predict corrections, we must be prepared for them and their impact on consumerism. More positively, snow equity from February ought to bode well in the Rockiesand the far west, where things have dried up again, but not before conditions there improved to a state unexpected 4 weeks ago. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (March –August) is up 9.1 percent, while rate is also up 6.1 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during February for arrival February –July are up 9.7 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Locally, Vail on-the-books Occupancy for March is up 0.6 percent with an increase in rate of 9.8 percent compared to 2013. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in all five months while rates are up in four of the five months. Occupancy gains are led by May (23.3 percent) and August (19.8 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (March -August) in aggregate has increased 9.2 percent while rate has also increased by 6.1 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival February through July are up 10.8.