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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail Town Council.VEAC June 3 FINALVail Winter Review/Summer Preview Data as of April 30, 2014 Ralf Garrison Who We Are… Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 2 Destination Travel Marketing Services since 1984 MTNWEST •Aspen •Avon, Colorado •Breckenridge •Beaver Creek •Copper •Gunnison/Crested Butte •Jackson Hole •Keystone •Mt Bachelor •Mammoth Lakes •North Lake Tahoe •Snowmass •Steamboat •Park City Area •Summit County, CO •Telluride •Vail •Winter Park Reports with data as of May 31, 2014 represent: 24 properties representing 2,390 units 60% of total community census Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 4 Vail Participation Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 5 Arrabelle at Vail Square Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail International Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences EconoMetrics 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% Unemployment Rate Consumer Confidence Index Dow Jones 16,581 6.3% 82.3 Dow Jones Confidence Unemployment Confidence, The Dow & Unemployment Jan. ‘07 –Apr. ‘14 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 7 Review of Winter 13/14 Nov. 1 –Apr. 30 9 Regional Breakdown Year over Year % Change in NATIONAL INDUSTRY-WIDE FAR WEST CA, OR, NV ROCKY MTNS WY, CO, UT Vail Occupancy ADR RevPAR 4.6% -8.9% 0.0% -8.9% 5.9% 10.8%12% 6.7% 4.9%4.6% 5.4% 10.2% Winter 2014 November -April Vail vs. DMX Universe November 2013 –April 2014 33 % 56 % 68 % 76 % 73 % 37 % 42 % 53 % 73 %74 %74 % 36 % 25 % 51 % 67 % 72 %73 % 31 % 24 % 48 % 62 % 70 % 72 % 30 % 22 % 47 % 58 % 69 %70 % 29 % 20 % 46 % 56 % 66 % 67 % 26 % 19 % 45 % 54 % 65 % 67 % 25 % 19 % 43 % 54 % 64 % 66 % 24 % 19 % 41 % 52 % 63 % 61 % 23 % 18 % 40 % 52 % 62 % 59 % 23 % 16 % 37 % 51 % 61 % 59 % 21 % 14 % 36 % 47 % 56 %57 % 21 % 14 % 34 % 47 % 51 % 55 % 18 % 14 % 33 % 46 % 51 % 52 % 15 % 19% 42% 54% 61%61% 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Oc c u p a n y R a t e % Vail Other Individual Destinations All Destination Aggregate Vail 6 Year Trend Index to 2007/08 Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 11 -10.2% -5.3%-4.8%-6.2% -5.5%-1.0%-5.4% -13.3% -7.9% -1.7% 2.5% 9.4% -14.9%-17.9% -12.3% -7.7% -3.0% 8.5% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 Industry 6 Year Trend Index to 2007/08 Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 12 -17.0% -15.7%-10.8%-13.8% -9.3% -7.6% -7.4% -11.1%-9.5% -5.5% -2.2% 1.8% -22.4% -25.0% -19.1%-17.8% -10.5% -5.3% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 Preview of Summer 2014 May 1 –Oct. 31 21% 46% 57%53% 40% 27% 41% 15% 31%33% 23% 14% 6% 21% 16% 29%28% 19% 14% 6% 18% -4% 9% 18% 26% -1% 6% 12% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% May June July August September October Summer Total Oc c u p a n c y R a t e & % C h g i n O c c u p R a t e Data as of April 30, 2014 Vail Occupancy Summer 2014 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 14 On the Books $1 3 8 $1 7 3 $2 1 5 $2 0 3 $1 6 4 $1 3 2 $1 8 4 $1 2 5 $1 6 1 $2 0 5 $2 0 3 $1 5 2 $1 2 3 $1 7 2 $1 2 5 $1 6 1 $2 0 0 $1 9 7 $1 6 2 $1 4 0 $1 7 3 11% 8% 5% 0% 8% 7%7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 May June July August September October Summer Total Pe r c e n t C h a n g e i n A D R Av e r a g e D a i l y R a t e $ Data as of April 30, 2014 Vail ADR Summer 2014 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 15 On the Books $2 1 $5 4 $7 1 $4 7 $2 3 $8 $3 8 $2 0 $4 6 $5 7 $3 8 $2 1 $7 $3 2 $2 7 $7 5 $1 1 5 $1 0 5 $6 5 $3 8 $7 2 6% 18% 24%26% 7% 14% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 May June July August September October Summer Total Pe r c e n t C h a n g e i n R e v P A R Re v e n u e P e r A v a i l a b l e R o o m $ Data as of April 30, 2014 Vail RevPAR Summer 2014 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 16 On the Books Vail Market Demand Summer 2014 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 17 -4. 4 % 9. 2 % 18 . 4 % 25 . 9 % -0. 5 % 6. 4 % 11 . 8 % 10 . 8 % 7. 6 % 5. 0 % 0. 2 % 8. 0 % 7. 0 % 7. 0 % -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% May 14 vs May 13 Jun 14 vs Jun 13 Jul 14 vs Jul 13 Aug 14 vs Aug 13 Sept 14 vs Sept 13 Oct 14 vs Oct 13 Summer Total % C h a n g e i n O c c u p a n c y / A D R Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2014 vs 2013 Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2014 vs 2013 Data as of April 30, 2014 Year over Year % Change in NATIONAL INDUSTRY-WIDE FAR WEST CA, OR, NV ROCKY MTNS WY, CO, UT Vail Occupancy ADR RevPAR 18 Summer 2014 May -October 10.9% 5.4% 16.9%19.7% 11.8%10.0% 3.6% 13.9% 5.6% 3.3% 9.0% 7.0% Vail vs. DMX Universe Occupancy May 2014 –October 2014 15 % 31 % 33 % 23 % 14 % 6% 32 % 62 % 59 % 47 % 39 % 17 % 28 % 46 % 54 % 43 % 23 % 13 % 24 % 41 % 43 % 29 % 23 % 12 % 16 % 37 % 43 % 28 % 16 % 11 % 13 % 29 % 30 % 21 % 14 % 6% 11 % 27 % 30 % 20 % 14 % 5% 11 % 23 % 28 % 20 % 13 % 4% 11 % 22 % 26 % 20 % 12 % 3% 9% 21 % 22 % 15 % 10 % 3% 7% 20 %21 % 13 % 10 % 2% 4% 19 % 21 % 12 % 9% 2% 3% 13 % 21 % 12 % 6% 1% 3% 13 % 20 % 9% 4% 1% 12% 28% 31% 21% 14% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Oc c u p a n y R a t e % Vail Other Individual Destinations All Destination Aggregate On the Books 20 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 26 - A p r - 1 4 3- M a y - 1 4 10 - M a y - 1 4 17 - M a y - 1 4 24 - M a y - 1 4 31 - M a y - 1 4 7- J u n - 1 4 14 - J u n - 1 4 21 - J u n - 1 4 28 - J u n - 1 4 5- J u l - 1 4 12 - J u l - 1 4 19 - J u l - 1 4 26 - J u l - 1 4 2- A u g - 1 4 9- A u g - 1 4 16 - A u g - 1 4 23 - A u g - 1 4 30 - A u g - 1 4 6- S e p - 1 4 13 - S e p - 1 4 20 - S e p - 1 4 27 - S e p - 1 4 4- O c t - 1 4 11 - O c t - 1 4 18 - O c t - 1 4 25 - O c t - 1 4 Oc c u p a n c y Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 2014 YTD vs. 2013 YTD as of 5/15 (22 properties) 2014 - as of 5/15/14 (22 properties included) 2013 - as of 5/15/13 (22 properties included) 2013 - historic actuals (22 properties included) Report Date: 5/15/14 Vail Daily Occupancy Report 21 Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007 Summer Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR -4.1% -16.1% -9.7% -3.3%2.6% 6.1% -47.1% -1.3% -9.6% -2.6% 0.6% 8.3% 10.9% 17.9% -4.9% -24.6% -13.1% -3.3% 11.5% 18.0% -37.7% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (OTB) % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 % Chg ADR vs 2007 % Chg Revenue vs 2007 On-the-books as of April 30 Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 22 -1.3% -13.9% -9.5% -4.1% 4.1% 21.1% 0.0% -4.9%-4.3%-2.4% 1.2% 13.4% 0.0% -15.7% -11.8% -3.9% 13.7% 39.2% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 % Chg ADR vs 2007 % Chg RevPAR vs 2007 Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007 Summer Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 23 Thank you!