HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail Town Council.VEAC June 3 FINALVail
Winter Review/Summer Preview
Data as of April 30, 2014
Ralf Garrison
Who We Are…
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 2
Destination Travel Marketing Services since 1984
MTNWEST
•Aspen
•Avon, Colorado
•Breckenridge
•Beaver Creek
•Copper
•Gunnison/Crested Butte
•Jackson Hole
•Keystone
•Mt Bachelor
•Mammoth Lakes
•North Lake Tahoe
•Snowmass
•Steamboat
•Park City Area
•Summit County, CO
•Telluride
•Vail
•Winter Park
Reports with data as of
May 31, 2014 represent:
24 properties representing 2,390
units
60% of total community census
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346
4
Vail Participation
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 5
Arrabelle at Vail Square
Destination Resorts Vail
Vail Cascade Condos
Vail Cascade Resort & Spa
Evergreen Lodge at Vail
Four Seasons Resort Vail
Lion Square Lodge
Lodge at Lionshead
Lodge Tower
Manor Vail Resort
Montaneros
Sitzmark Lodge
Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
The Sebastian
The Wren
Tivoli Lodge
Vail International
Vail Mountain Lodge
Vail Racquet Club
Vail Spa Condominiums
Vail Marriott
The Lodge at Vail
The Ritz-Carlton Residences
EconoMetrics
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
Unemployment Rate
Consumer Confidence Index
Dow Jones
16,581
6.3%
82.3
Dow Jones
Confidence
Unemployment
Confidence, The Dow & Unemployment
Jan. ‘07 –Apr. ‘14
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 7
Review of Winter 13/14
Nov. 1 –Apr. 30
9
Regional Breakdown
Year over
Year
% Change in
NATIONAL
INDUSTRY-WIDE
FAR WEST
CA, OR, NV
ROCKY MTNS
WY, CO, UT Vail
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
4.6%
-8.9%
0.0%
-8.9%
5.9%
10.8%12%
6.7%
4.9%4.6%
5.4%
10.2%
Winter 2014
November -April
Vail vs. DMX Universe
November 2013 –April 2014
33
%
56
%
68
%
76
%
73
%
37
%
42
%
53
%
73
%74
%74
%
36
%
25
%
51
%
67
%
72
%73
%
31
%
24
%
48
%
62
%
70
%
72
%
30
%
22
%
47
%
58
%
69
%70
%
29
%
20
%
46
%
56
%
66
%
67
%
26
%
19
%
45
%
54
%
65
%
67
%
25
%
19
%
43
%
54
%
64
%
66
%
24
%
19
%
41
%
52
%
63
%
61
%
23
%
18
%
40
%
52
%
62
%
59
%
23
%
16
%
37
%
51
%
61
%
59
%
21
%
14
%
36
%
47
%
56
%57
%
21
%
14
%
34
%
47
%
51
%
55
%
18
%
14
%
33
%
46
%
51
%
52
%
15
%
19%
42%
54%
61%61%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
y
R
a
t
e
%
Vail
Other Individual Destinations
All Destination Aggregate
Vail 6 Year Trend Index to 2007/08
Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR
11
-10.2%
-5.3%-4.8%-6.2%
-5.5%-1.0%-5.4%
-13.3%
-7.9%
-1.7%
2.5%
9.4%
-14.9%-17.9%
-12.3%
-7.7%
-3.0%
8.5%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08
% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
Industry 6 Year Trend Index to 2007/08
Winter Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR
12
-17.0%
-15.7%-10.8%-13.8%
-9.3%
-7.6%
-7.4%
-11.1%-9.5%
-5.5%
-2.2%
1.8%
-22.4%
-25.0%
-19.1%-17.8%
-10.5%
-5.3%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08
% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
Preview of Summer 2014
May 1 –Oct. 31
21%
46%
57%53%
40%
27%
41%
15%
31%33%
23%
14%
6%
21%
16%
29%28%
19%
14%
6%
18%
-4%
9%
18%
26%
-1%
6%
12%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
May June July August September October Summer Total
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
R
a
t
e
&
%
C
h
g
i
n
O
c
c
u
p
R
a
t
e
Data as of April 30, 2014
Vail Occupancy
Summer 2014
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 14
On the Books
$1
3
8
$1
7
3
$2
1
5
$2
0
3
$1
6
4
$1
3
2
$1
8
4
$1
2
5
$1
6
1
$2
0
5
$2
0
3
$1
5
2
$1
2
3
$1
7
2
$1
2
5
$1
6
1
$2
0
0
$1
9
7
$1
6
2
$1
4
0
$1
7
3
11%
8%
5%
0%
8%
7%7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
May June July August September October Summer Total
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
A
D
R
Av
e
r
a
g
e
D
a
i
l
y
R
a
t
e
$
Data as of April 30, 2014
Vail ADR
Summer 2014
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 15
On the Books
$2
1
$5
4
$7
1
$4
7
$2
3
$8
$3
8
$2
0
$4
6
$5
7
$3
8
$2
1
$7
$3
2
$2
7
$7
5
$1
1
5
$1
0
5
$6
5
$3
8
$7
2
6%
18%
24%26%
7%
14%
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
May June July August September October Summer Total
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
R
e
v
P
A
R
Re
v
e
n
u
e
P
e
r
A
v
a
i
l
a
b
l
e
R
o
o
m
$
Data as of April 30, 2014
Vail RevPAR
Summer 2014
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 16
On the Books
Vail Market Demand
Summer 2014
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 17
-4.
4
%
9.
2
%
18
.
4
%
25
.
9
%
-0.
5
%
6.
4
%
11
.
8
%
10
.
8
%
7.
6
%
5.
0
%
0.
2
%
8.
0
%
7.
0
%
7.
0
%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
May 14 vs May 13 Jun 14 vs Jun 13 Jul 14 vs Jul 13 Aug 14 vs Aug 13 Sept 14 vs Sept 13 Oct 14 vs Oct 13 Summer Total
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
O
c
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
/
A
D
R
Percent Chg in Occupancy YTD: 2014 vs 2013
Percent Chg in ADR YTD: 2014 vs 2013
Data as of April 30, 2014
Year over
Year
% Change in
NATIONAL
INDUSTRY-WIDE
FAR WEST
CA, OR, NV
ROCKY MTNS
WY, CO, UT Vail
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
18
Summer 2014
May -October
10.9%
5.4%
16.9%19.7%
11.8%10.0%
3.6%
13.9%
5.6%
3.3%
9.0%
7.0%
Vail vs. DMX Universe
Occupancy
May 2014 –October 2014
15
%
31
%
33
%
23
%
14
%
6%
32
%
62
%
59
%
47
%
39
%
17
%
28
%
46
%
54
%
43
%
23
%
13
%
24
%
41
%
43
%
29
%
23
%
12
%
16
%
37
%
43
%
28
%
16
%
11
%
13
%
29
%
30
%
21
%
14
%
6%
11
%
27
%
30
%
20
%
14
%
5%
11
%
23
%
28
%
20
%
13
%
4%
11
%
22
%
26
%
20
%
12
%
3%
9%
21
%
22
%
15
%
10
%
3%
7%
20
%21
%
13
%
10
%
2%
4%
19
%
21
%
12
%
9%
2%
3%
13
%
21
%
12
%
6%
1%
3%
13
%
20
%
9%
4%
1%
12%
28%
31%
21%
14%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
y
R
a
t
e
%
Vail
Other Individual Destinations
All Destination Aggregate
On the Books
20
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
26
-
A
p
r
-
1
4
3-
M
a
y
-
1
4
10
-
M
a
y
-
1
4
17
-
M
a
y
-
1
4
24
-
M
a
y
-
1
4
31
-
M
a
y
-
1
4
7-
J
u
n
-
1
4
14
-
J
u
n
-
1
4
21
-
J
u
n
-
1
4
28
-
J
u
n
-
1
4
5-
J
u
l
-
1
4
12
-
J
u
l
-
1
4
19
-
J
u
l
-
1
4
26
-
J
u
l
-
1
4
2-
A
u
g
-
1
4
9-
A
u
g
-
1
4
16
-
A
u
g
-
1
4
23
-
A
u
g
-
1
4
30
-
A
u
g
-
1
4
6-
S
e
p
-
1
4
13
-
S
e
p
-
1
4
20
-
S
e
p
-
1
4
27
-
S
e
p
-
1
4
4-
O
c
t
-
1
4
11
-
O
c
t
-
1
4
18
-
O
c
t
-
1
4
25
-
O
c
t
-
1
4
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
Date
(Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
2014 YTD vs. 2013 YTD as of 5/15 (22 properties)
2014 - as of 5/15/14 (22 properties included)
2013 - as of 5/15/13 (22 properties included)
2013 - historic actuals (22 properties included)
Report Date: 5/15/14
Vail Daily Occupancy Report
21
Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007
Summer Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR
-4.1%
-16.1%
-9.7%
-3.3%2.6%
6.1%
-47.1%
-1.3%
-9.6%
-2.6%
0.6%
8.3%
10.9%
17.9%
-4.9%
-24.6%
-13.1%
-3.3%
11.5%
18.0%
-37.7%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (OTB)
% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 % Chg ADR vs 2007 % Chg Revenue vs 2007
On-the-books
as of April 30
Property of DestiMetrics LLC All Rights Reserved www.DestiMetrics.com info@destimetrics.com 303-722-7346 22
-1.3%
-13.9%
-9.5%
-4.1%
4.1%
21.1%
0.0%
-4.9%-4.3%-2.4%
1.2%
13.4%
0.0%
-15.7%
-11.8%
-3.9%
13.7%
39.2%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07
% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 % Chg ADR vs 2007 % Chg RevPAR vs 2007
Industry 7 Year Trend Index to 2007
Summer Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR
23
Thank you!