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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1.d. RRC Report- Competitive AssessmentVail Competitive Assessment RRC Associates July 15, 2014 RRC ASSOCIATES Chris Cares Nate Fristoe David Becher Office: (303) 449-6558 rrcassociates.com 2 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 3 •To consolidate information in a single place to “ground” discussion on Vail’s future •To provide an objective fact-based overview of: o Resort industry trends and upcoming changes in the next 5 to 10 years o To provide a set of comparisons to allow Vail to measure against others •To initiate discussions by Council to identify missing or needed information and next steps for the Town. Objectives of RRC’s participation at the Vail Council Retreat Town of Vail | 07/15/14 THREE FOCUS AREAS | 2014-2016 4 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Our Mission - Grow a vibrant, diverse economy and community, providing our citizens and guests with exceptional services and an abundance of recreational, cultural and educational opportunities. Vail Town Council Action Plan GOAL AREA I GOAL - Grow a vibrant and diverse economy that keeps us at the forefront of our resort competitors for the long-term with continued opportunities for private and public investment and philanthropy. 5 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Jack Affleck Vail Town Council Action Plan KEY INITIATIVES & TACTICS TACTICS •Long-term strategic plan to enhance competitiveness of TOV •Economic diversity strategy •Air service expansion leadership •TOV endowment fund 6 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail Town Council Action Plan 7 •The Vail Brand •Vail Mountain and Back Bowls •New lodging properties and relatively high quality bed base •Signature events (Bravo, Mountain Games, etc.) and the overall program of events including the particular success of Farmers Market •Vail Valley Medical Center/Steadman Hawkins reputation and presence •Proximity to Denver and Front Range •Reputation on Front Range •The Epic Pass and the Vail Resorts brand and initiatives, and the Vail Resorts name and reach STRENGTHS Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 8 •Vail Resorts capital improvements – winter and summer •The Community Survey indicates that Vail is in “good shape” and that there are no glaring deficiencies. High ratings of service delivery and positive comments about management and fiscal discipline •The economic strength of second homeowners, along with their geographic origins, give Vail broad reach in multiple regions. This is further expanded by Beaver Creek. •International Visibility (note that measuring international reputation would require testing) STRENGTHS Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 9 •Perception of value and the actuality of relatively higher costs than most competing resorts. •Limited land for expansion and for major new facilities •Lack of developed space at the base of the mountain for events and concerts. (The limitations of Gold Peak have been identified. Long term, is there an opportunity to mitigate some of the physical limitations? •No true conference facility and limited improved concert and outdoor gathering spaces WEAKNESSES Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 10 •Workforce and affordable housing – vulnerability to down-valley competition and to increased costs of labor as overall economy improves •The parking experience, and issues of price, and supply at certain times •I-70 – both its presence bisecting the Town, and problems of access at peak times •The Vail brand may be a turnoff for some, especially the younger set ( requires testing to confirm or reject) •Vulnerability to climate change WEAKNESSES Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 11 A Brief Industry Overview Town of Vail | 07/15/14 12 52.5 54.1 52.1 52.2 57.3 54.4 57.6 57.1 56.9 58.9 55.1 60.5 57.4 59.8 60.5 51.0 56.9 56.2 16.1 15.5 17.4 17.4 18.6 18.9 18.9 19.1 18.0 18.6 18.7 20.3 18.3 18.1 18.9 17.7 18.6 18.0 68.6 69.7 69.5 69.6 75.9 73.3 76.5 76.2 74.9 77.5 73.8 80.8 75.7 77.9 79.4 68.7 75.5 74.2 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 Sk i e r / S n o w b o a r d e r V i s i t s ( i n m i l l i o n s ) Season U.S. and Canadian Skier/Snowboarder Visits: 1996/97 to 2013/14 Canada U.S. North American Skier/Snowboarder Visits (excludes Nordi & Heli) Town of Vail | 07/15/14 US & Canada Skier/Snowboarder Visits 13 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Total Active US Snowsports Participants 14 315,200,000 56,800,000 10,000,000 20,000,000 18% of population 6.3% of population 3.2% of population ACTIVE LAPSED Socio-Economic Match Total population Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Estimated Market Size for Downhill Snow Sports in US 15 Never Been Beginner Revival Drop- Out Core Lapsed THE MODEL FOR GROWTH Annual Growth in Trial Town of Vail | 07/15/14 16 Never Been Beginner 10% Revival 25% Drop- Out Core 65% 15% 85% Lapsed 20% 75% 0% 25% THE MODEL 1999/2000 Annual Growth in Trial=0.0% Town of Vail | 07/15/14 17 Never Been Beginner 8% Revival 27% Drop- Out Core 65% Annual Growth in Trial=-3.3% 17% 83% Lapsed 27% 75% -1.7% 25% THE MODEL 2012/2013 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 18 57.1 56.2 55.3 54.4 53.6 52.8 52.0 51.2 50.5 49.8 49.0 48.4 47.7 47.1 46.5 45.9 45.3 57.1 56.9 56.8 56.8 56.9 57.0 57.2 57.5 58.0 58.5 59.1 59.9 60.8 61.8 63.0 64.1 65.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Vi s i t s Visitation Projections from 2013/14 through 2029/30: Decline vs. Growth -3% Decline in Trial 6% Growth in Trial / 0.2% Improvement in Conversion Visitation Projections Town of Vail | 07/15/14 19 Trial Goals Translated •On average we see about 1,000,000 first timers in any given season. •Based on a 6% growth in trial we would like to see an additional 60,000 first timers on the slopes. Town of Vail | 07/15/14 20 Number of First Time Participants Town of Vail | 07/15/14 21 Trends of Note •Significant generational differences in participation patterns •Slow growth in building diversity •Income inequality, the aging of wealth, and the affordability factor •Significant gender differences in participation levels •Impacts of climate change •The need to capitalize on summer Town of Vail | 07/15/14 22 Generational Differences Town of Vail | 07/15/14 23 Generational Differences 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 Pe r c e n t o f V i s i t s Single Year of Age Percent of Visits by Single Year of Age: 2012/13 vs. 2002/03 2012/13 2002/03 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 24 Generational Differences The Greatest Generation: •Born prior to 1928. •Currently age 87 and over. •1.3% of population. Town of Vail | 07/15/14 25 Generational Differences The Silent Generation: •Born between 1928 and 1945. •Currently age 69 to 86. •9% of population Town of Vail | 07/15/14 26 Generational Differences The Baby Boomer: •Born between 1946 and 1964. •Currently age 50 to 68. •23% of population. Town of Vail | 07/15/14 27 Generational Differences Generation X: •Born between 1965 and 1980. •Currently age 34 to 49. •21% of population. Town of Vail | 07/15/14 28 Generational Differences Millennials: •Born after 1980. •Currently age 33 and under. •18-33 year olds are 22% of population. Town of Vail | 07/15/14 29 Generational Differences Town of Vail | 07/15/14 30 Generational Differences 20% 50% 68% 83% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% Silent Generation Baby Boomer Gen X Millenials Percent Responding Percent Indicating Place Their Cell Phone On or Right Next to Their Bed When Sleeping Percent Who Sleep With Cell Phone CELL PHONE USE Town of Vail | 07/15/14 31 Percent of Adults Living Alone by Gender and Age: 1850-2010 More adults live alone than at any point in human history. In Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, San Francisco and Minneapolis - 40 percent or more of all households contain a single occupant. Sources: Analysis by Susan Weber and Andrew Beveridge, Queens College, CUNY, from historical and current census data Town of Vail | 07/15/14 32 Diminished Value of Ownership and the Rise of the Sharing Economy Town of Vail | 07/15/14 33 Total Active US Snowsports Participants Town of Vail | 07/15/14 34 Total Active US Snowsports Participants Town of Vail | 07/15/14 35 US Snowsports Participants by Cohort 77.3%79.1%78.8%77.3%75.9%74.0%72.8%71.0%69.1%67.5%66.8%65.4%65.8%63.1%60.3%58.0%55.3% 22.7%20.9%21.2%22.7%24.1%26.0%27.2%29.0%30.9%32.5%33.2%34.6%34.2%36.9%39.7%42.0%44.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Pe r c e n t o f P a r t i c i p a n t s Percent of Total U.S. Participants by Cohort: 1996/97 to 2012/13 Percent Millenial to GenX Percent Boom & Pre-Boom Town of Vail | 07/15/14 36 US Snowsports Participants by Age Group 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 18 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55 -64 65 and over Pe r c e n t o f V i s i t s Percent of Visits Accounted for by Age Group: 1996/97 to 2012/13 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 37 Number of 18 to 39 Year Old Coloradans vs. 18 to 39 Year Old Colorado Skiers/Snowboarders: 1996/97 to 2012/13 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Si z e o f G r o u p 18 to 39 Year Old Colorado Skiers/Snowboarders 18 to 39 Year Old Coloradans Town of Vail | 07/15/14 38 Is Resort Product in Alignment with Millennial Needs? Town of Vail | 07/15/14 39 Growing Diversity Town of Vail | 07/15/14 40 Growing Diversity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 Pe r c e n t N o n -Wh i t e Single Year of Age Percent Non -White by Single Year of Age 2014 2040 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 41 Growing Diversity 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 Pe r c e n t N o n -Wh i t e Single Year of Age Percent Non-White in 2012 Population vs. 2012/13 Skier/Snowboarder Population by Single Year of Age 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percent Non-White in Population) 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percent Non-White in Skier/Snowboarder Population) 20-40 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 42 Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth Town of Vail | 07/15/14 43 Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth Town of Vail | 07/15/14 44 Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth Source: http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412766-Lost-Generations-Wealth-Building-Among-Young-Americans.pdf AVERAGE NET WORTH BY AGE & YEAR Town of Vail | 07/15/14 45 Source: http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412766-Lost-Generations-Wealth-Building-Among-Young-Americans.pdf CHANGE IN AVERAGE NET WORTH BY AGE GROUP: 1983-2010 Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth Town of Vail | 07/15/14 46 Lack of Mobility by Geography Town of Vail | 07/15/14 47 Visits by Income 30% 25% 18% 27% 25%24% 19% 31% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Under $50,000 $50,000 -$99,999 $100,000 -$149,999 $150,00 or above Pe r c e n t R e s p o n d i n g Household Income Category Percent of Visits Accounted for by Household Income Category: 2007/08 to 2012/13 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 48 Average Adult Ticket Price $48.49 $53.34 $55.11 $58.96 $61.99 $66.13 $68.90 $72.28 $73.11 $76.89 $82.07 $86.17 $93.33 $- $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 A v e r a g e L i f t T i c k e t P r i c e ( w e e k e n d ) U.S. Average Adult Lift Ticket Price (weekend): 2001/02 to 2013/14 Avg. Lift Ticket Price (weekend) Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Avg. Season Pass Price: 2000/01 = $625 2012/13 = $717 49 Gender Differences in Participation Town of Vail | 07/15/14 50 Gender Differences in Participation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 Pe r c e n t o f V i s i t s Single Year of Age Visits Accounted for by Gender and Single Year of Age: 2010/11 to 2012/13 Average Male Female HI G H R I S K Z O N E 42-50 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 51 Snowboarding •Share of visits from snowboarders dropped to 26.6% in 2013/14, down from 30.6% in 2010/11 •Decline seen in all regions and all size ski areas •Most pronounced drop in Pacific South (down 10 percentage points in 3 years) Town of Vail | 07/15/14 52 Snowboarding 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Av e r a g e D a y s S k i e d / S n o w b o a r d e d Average Days Skied or Snowboarded: 1996/97 to 2012/13 Average Days for Snowboarders Average Days for Skiers Town of Vail | 07/15/14 53 Gender Differences in Participation 51%52%52%52%50%51%51%51%51%52%52%52%53%53%53%53% 49%48%48%48%50%49%49%49%49%48%48%48%47%47%47%47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Pe r c e n t o f P a r t i c i p a n t s Gender Ratios for Ski Participants: 1996/97 to 2011/12 Male Female Town of Vail | 07/15/14 54 Gender Differences in Participation 65% 62%62%61%61%62%61%62%62%62%62%62%63%63%63%64% 35% 38%38%39%39%38%39%38%38%38%38%38%37%37%37%36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Pe r c e n t o f P a r t i c i p a n t s Gender Ratios for Snowboarding Participants: 1996/97 to 2011/12 Male Female Town of Vail | 07/15/14 55 Climate Change Town of Vail | 07/15/14 56 Climate Change GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MODEL PROJECTIONS Town of Vail | 07/15/14 57 Climate Change PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THROUGH 2100 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 58 Climate Change PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL SNOW THROUGH 2100 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 59 Climate Change PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THROUGH 2100: COLORADO Town of Vail | 07/15/14 60 Climate Change PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL SNOW THROUGH 2100: COLORADO Town of Vail | 07/15/14 61 Climate Change ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURES Town of Vail | 07/15/14 62 Climate Change JANUARY OBSERVED AND PROJECTED TEMPERATURES Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation Town of Vail | 07/15/14 63 Climate Change JULY OBSERVED AND PROJECTED TEMPERATURES Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation Town of Vail | 07/15/14 64 Climate Change PROJECTED CHANGE IN COLORADO RIVER BASIN SNOWPACK Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation Town of Vail | 07/15/14 65 Rising Importance of Summer Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 66 67 Who we are… Town of Vail | 07/15/14 68 What we sometimes emulate… Town of Vail | 07/15/14 69 Industry Core Strengths. Are we building on them? •Unique Product/Location •High Barriers to Entry •Scalable Operations •Dedicated Customer Base Winter Summer Town of Vail | 07/15/14 What happens when we lose our edge with regards to unique product and high barriers to entry? 70 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 And what if our customer base isn’t as dedicated or engaged with the product offerings we can successfully monetize? 71 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 72 Rising Importance of Summer 153,860,114 118,163,525 25,925,625 9,770,964 72% 55% 12% 5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000 Potential Overnight Summer Traveler (Over 18, non-incarcerated, and living above the poverty line) Non-Mountain Travelers Mountain Travlers, with Ski Resort Exposure Mountain Travelers, Exclusively Non-Ski Nu m b e r o f U . S . A d u l t s Traveler Categories Size of Potential Summer Travel Markets Number of U.S. Adults in Category Percent of Overall U.S. Adult Population Town of Vail | 07/15/14 73 Rising Importance of Summer SIZING SUMMER VS. WINTER 10M 26M Town of Vail | 07/15/14 74 Rising Importance of Summer 4.2 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 8.7 8.8 9.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Geocaching Disc Golf Mountain Biking (XC) Hiking Golf Downhill Mountain Biking Festivals/Concerts Mini Golf Adventure Races Climbing Wall Scenic Lift Rides Bungee Weddings/Meetings/Fa… Ropes/Challenge Course Zip-line/ Canopy Tour Mountain Coaster Water Park Alpine Slide Average Rating (1="Not at All Successful"/10="Extremely Successful" Average Rating of Amenity's Financial Success Average Definite winners and losers Town of Vail | 07/15/14 75 Rising Importance of Summer 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 13% 26% 0%5%10%15%20%25%30% Recommend by friend, family, word of mouth Wedding/honeymoon/anniversary Convention/conference/trade show Seasonal residence Special package/offer/price/discount Competitive sporting event participant Other Previous experience/annual vacation Special event Business/professional Hadn't been to the area before, wanted to see it National/state park Combined business/pleasure Group arrangement/family reunion Noncompetitive recreational activity General sightseeing/touring Mountain getaway Climate/weather Visit friends/relatives Enjoyment of the ski area resort/town Rest and relaxation Enjoyment of the scenic beauty of the mountain/area Percent Responding Most Important Reason for Trip to Ski Area Percent Responding Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Source: NSAA Summer Traveler Survey, RRC Associates. 76 Population Projections Town of Vail | 07/15/14 STATE OF COLORADO 5,363,689 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Es t i m a t e d P o p u l a t i o n S i z e Year Colorado Population Projections, 2014-2040 Source: CO State Demographer; RRC Associates. 10-yr increase: 885,460 (17%) 10-yr increase: 842,018 (13%) 77 Population Projections Town of Vail | 07/15/14 BY COUNTY 55,579 17,888 29,811 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Es t i m a t e d P o p u l a t i o n S i z e Year Population Projections by County, 2014-2040 Eagle Pitkin Summit Source: CO State Demographer; RRC Associates. 10-yr increase: 14,360 (26%) 10-yr increase: 8,145 (22%) 10-yr increase: 3,924 (27%) 10-yr increase: 15,282 (22%) 10-yr increase: 4,426 (18%) 10-yr increase: 7,017 (20%) 78 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail Visitation 79 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 2009/10-2013/14 80 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 15,428 54,327 74,141 69,184 72,056 34,637 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 October-November December January February March April Av e r a g e M o n t h l y N u m b e r o f F r o n t R a n g e V i s i t o r s 5-Year Averages of Monthly Front Range Visitors at Vail, 2009/10-2013/14 5-Year Averages of Monthly Front Range Visitors to Vail 2009/10-2013/14 81 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 5.8% 10.3% 11.1% 12.1%12.3% 13.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% October-November December January February March April Av e r a g e M o n t h l y S h a r e o f F r o n t R a n g e V i s i t o r s 5-Year Averages of Monthly Market Share of Front Range Visitors at Vail, 2009/10-2013/14 5-Year Averages of Monthly Market Share Front Range Visitors to Vail 2002/03-2013/14 82 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 9% 12% 11% 12%12% 11% 10%9%9% 12% 10%11% 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 4%4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 15%15%15% 14% 16% 14% 13% 14%14% 15% 14% 16% 16%16%16% 14% 15%14% 17%17% 15% 15% 14% 13% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2013/142012/132011/122010/112009/102008/092007/082006/072005/062004/052003/042002/03 Se a s o n -to -Da t e M a r k e t S h a r e o f F r o n t R a n g e V i s i t o r s Season-to-Date Market Share of Front Range Visitors at Vail Resorts, 2002/03- 2013/14 Vail Beaver Creek Breckenridge Keystone Season-to-Date Share of Front Range Visitors to Vail Resorts Source: RRC Associates Snowsports Enthusiast Panel. 2001/02-2011/12 83 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail’s Share of Colorado and U.S. Visits 14.5% 13.8% 3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 2011-20122010-20112009-20102008-20092007-20082006-20072005-20062004-20052003-20042002-20032001-2002 Vail's Share of Colorado Visits Vail's Share of U.S. Visits 2001/02-2011/12 84 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail, Breckenridge, and Aspen/Snowmass’ Share of Colorado and U.S. Visits 14.5% 13.8% 3.1% 2.8% 13.5% 13.2% 2.9% 2.7% 12.1% 11.4% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 2011-20122010-20112009-20102008-20092007-20082006-20072005-20062004-20052003-20042002-20032001-2002 Vail's Share of Colorado Visits Vail's Share of U.S. Visits Breckenridge's Share of Colorado Visits Breckenridges Share of U.S. Visits Aspen/Snowmass's Share of Colorado Visits Aspen/Snowmass's Share of U.S. Visits 85 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 1,319,400 1,855,263 1,775,355 1,577,386 1,627,008 1,374,696 4.9% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7%2.8% 2.4% 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Zermatt Ischgl/Samnaun Silvretta Park City Area Breckenridge Vail Aspen/Snowmass 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 5-Se a s o n A v e r a g e S k i e r / S n o w b o a r d e r V i s i t s Benchmarking Resort's Five Season Average Skier/Snowboarder Visits and Five Season Average Share of Home Country's Visitation Resort's 5-Season Average Skier/Snowboarder Visits Share of Country's Skier/Snowboarder Visits Benchmarking Resort’s Five-Season Average Skier/Snowboarder Visits and Five Season Average Share of Home Country’s Visitation 1998/99-2011/12 86 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail vs. Breckenridge Skier/Snowboarder Visits 1,594,250 1,750,000 1,599,000 1,622,000 1,569,788 1,608,204 1,676,118 1,568,192 1,555,513 1,610,961 1,536,024 1,645,902 1,371,702 1,334,939 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Sk i e r / S n o w b o a r d e r V i s t i s Season Vail Breckenridge 1997/98-2011/12 87 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail vs. Aspen/Snowmass Skier/Snowboarder Visits 1,594,250 1,750,000 1,599,000 1,622,000 1,569,788 1,608,204 1,676,118 1,568,192 1,555,513 1,610,961 1,536,024 1,645,902 1,371,702 1,334,939 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Sk i e r / S n o w b o a r d e r V i s t i s Season Vail Aspen/Snowmass 1998/99-2011/12 88 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail vs. Park City Skier/Snowboarder Visits 1,594,250 1,750,000 1,599,000 1,622,000 1,569,788 1,608,204 1,676,118 1,568,192 1,555,513 1,610,961 1,536,024 1,645,902 1,371,702 1,334,939 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Sk i e r / S n o w b o a r d e r V i s t i s Season Vail Park City Area (The Canyons, Deer Valley, & Park City) 1990/91 – 2013/14 89 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail Resorts’ Share of Colorado Skier Visits 38 . 4 % 38 . 6 % 38 . 4 % 38 . 9 % 39 . 4 % 40 . 6 % 41 . 3 % 39 . 4 % 40 . 3 % 42 . 2 % 42 . 6 % 42 . 5 % 41 . 3 % 41 . 5 % 41 . 3 % 42 . 0 % 42 . 3 % 41 . 8 % 43 . 0 % 43 . 2 % 43 . 4 % 44 . 0 % 44 . 1 % 43 . 4 % Colorado resorts trend: +62,700 visits/yr y = 62738x + 1E+07 R² = 0.4093 Vail Resorts (CO) trend: +52,300 visits/yr y = 52316x + 4E+06 R² = 0.7496 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Va i l R e s o r t s S h a r e o f C o l o r a d o S k i e r V i s i t s Sk i e r V i s i t s ( M i l l i o n s ) Vail Resorts share of Colorado Colorado resort skier visits (25 resorts, incl. Vail Rsrts) Vail Resorts skier visits (4 CO resorts) Source: CSCUSA; Vail Resorts (Vail Resorts data approximate for 2012/13 & 2013/14). 1996/97 - 2013/14 90 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Rocky Mountain Resort Skier Visits by Visitor Type In-state trend: +109,100 visits/yr y = 109132x + 7E+06 R² = 0.7129 Out of state trend: -12,600 visits/yr y = -12567x + 1E+07 R² = 0.0183 International trend: +35,500 visits/yr y = 35543x + 897533 R² = 0.6873 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Sk i e r V i s i t s ( M i l l i o n s ) In-state visits Out of state visits International visits Source: NSAA; RRC Associates. NSAA Rocky Mountain Region includes resorts in NM, CO, UT, WY, ID, MT. Perceptions of Vail 91 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Ski Magazine Survey Analysis 92 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Vail Strengths 2003/04 93 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 terrain 23% variety 19% snow 15% great 9% bowls 8% ski 8% good 7% size 7% best 5% Vail Strengths 2011/12 94 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 terrain 24% variety 15% bowls 12% snow 11% great 10% mountain 8% huge 7% grooming 6% size 6% Vail Weaknesses 2003/04 95 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 expensive 24% lift 17% parking 16% crowded 14% price 9% people 7% walk 7% lines 6% Vail Weaknesses 2011/12 96 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 expensive 27% parking 25%crowded 11% lift 11% long 10% lines 8% price 7% Vail-Specific Importance Ratings Across Seasons 1997/98-2011/12 97 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Av e r a g e R a t i n g Snow Quality Terrain Variety Terrain Challenge Weather Value Lifts Accessibility Scenery Grooming Resort Service Lodging Dining On-mtn Food Apres Ski Off-hill Act. Family Progs. Terrain Parks Vail Average Ratings 1997/98-2011/12 98 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Av e r a g e R a t i n g Terrain Variety Terrain Challenge Grooming Snow Quality Scenery Lifts Weather Resort Service Dining Apres Ski Lodging On-mt. Food Off-hill Act. Accessibility Family Prog. Terrain Parks Value Average Importance Ratings by Average Resort Ratings 2001/02 99 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Snow QualityGrooming Terrain Variety Terrain Challenge Value Lifts Resort Service WeatherAccessibility On-mt. Food Lodging DiningApres Ski Off-hill Act. Family Prog. Scenery Terrain Parks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Va i l R a t i n g s Importance Ratings Average Importance Ratings by Average Resort Ratings 2011/12 100 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Va i l R a t i n g s Importance Ratings Percentage of 9 & 10 Ratings by Age 2011/12 101 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 snow grooming* variety* challenge* value lifts** resort service weather accessibili ty*on-mt foodlodging dining aprski off-hill act. family scenery parks satisfactio n dig. pres character 34 and younger 35 and older *significant at .05; ** significant at .01 Percentage of 9 & 10 Ratings by State 2011/12 102 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 snow grooming variety challenge value lifts resort service weather accessibility* * on-mt food* lodging* dining aprski off-hill act. family scenery parks satisfaction dig. pres character CO resident Out of State * significant at .05; ** significant at .01 Lodging Metrics 103 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 41 % 58 % 70 % 53 % 52 % 52 % 52 % 51 % 50 % 50 % 40 % 47 % 36 % 46 % 33 % 44 % 33 % 42 % 33 % 42 % 30 % 41 % 29 % 40 % 27 % 39 % 22 % 36 % 20 % 33 % 17 % 31 % 15 % 27 % 38% 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Summer 2013 total Winter 2013/14 total Oc c u p a n c y R a t e Month of Occupancy Occupancy Rate: Vail vs. Other Western Mountain Resorts VAIL Other individual resorts Aggregate Total Source: DestiMetrics. Lodging Metrics 104 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 9.2% 7.9% 9.9% 13.8% 13.5% 13.3% 14.9% 12.6% 14.0% 60.7% 60.7% 58.6% 52.4% 54.4% 55.1% 55.8% 54.9% 57.5% 51.5% 52.8% 48.7% 38.6% 40.9% 41.9% 40.9% 42.2% 43.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Winter 2005/06 Winter 2006/07 Winter 2007/08 Winter 2008/09 Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 Winter 2011/12 Winter 2012/13 Winter 2013/14 Winter Paid Occupancy Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate Vail vs. Aggregate (ppt difference) Vail Industry Source: DestiMetrics. Lodging Metrics 105 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 3.0% 0.0% 5.7% 6.7% 7.7% 7.1% 8.6% 3.0% 39.4% 40.4% 38.0% 32.6% 36.1% 37.6% 41.1% 41.5% 36.3% 40.4% 32.3% 25.9% 28.4% 30.5% 32.5% 38.4% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Summer 2006 Summer 2007 Summer 2008 Summer 2009 Summer 2010 Summer 2011 Summer 2012 Summer 2013 Summer Paid Occupancy Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate Vail vs. Aggregate (ppt difference) Vail Western Resort Aggregate Source: DestiMetrics. Note: Resorts included in aggregate were expanded in summer 2013. Lodging Metrics 106 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 26 - O c t - 1 3 2- N o v - 1 3 9- N o v - 1 3 16 - N o v - 1 3 23 - N o v - 1 3 30 - N o v - 1 3 7- D e c - 1 3 14 - D e c - 1 3 21 - D e c - 1 3 28 - D e c - 1 3 4- J a n - 1 4 11 - J a n - 1 4 18 - J a n - 1 4 25 - J a n - 1 4 1- F e b - 1 4 8- F e b - 1 4 15 - F e b - 1 4 22 - F e b - 1 4 1- M a r - 1 4 8- M a r - 1 4 15 - M a r - 1 4 22 - M a r - 1 4 29 - M a r - 1 4 5- A p r - 1 4 12 - A p r - 1 4 19 - A p r - 1 4 26 - A p r - 1 4 Oc c u p a n c y R a t e Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) Winter 2013/14 Lodging Occupancy Vail vs. Destimetrics Western Resort Aggregate Vail vs. DestiMetrics Aggregate 2013/14 Vail 2013/14 DestiMetrics Aggregate 2013/14 Source: DestiMetrics. Lodging Metrics 107 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $1 7 3 $4 4 3 $2 8 0 $4 9 6 $2 3 3 $4 5 7 $2 1 7 $4 1 5 $1 9 8 $3 7 9 $1 9 5 $3 2 6 $1 9 5 $2 9 4 $1 5 1 $2 7 3 $1 4 3 $2 7 2 $1 3 7 $2 5 9 $1 3 6 $2 5 6 $1 3 6 $2 2 7 $1 3 5 $2 0 6 $1 3 3 $1 8 5 $1 0 6 $1 8 4 $9 9 $1 5 4 $9 5 $1 5 4 $186 $331 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Summer 2013 total Winter 2013/14 total AD R Month of Occupancy ADR: Vail vs. Other Western Mountain Resorts VAIL Other individual resorts Aggregate Total Source: DestiMetrics. Lodging Metrics 108 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $59 $75 $75 $92 $109 $112 $364 $363 $369 $402 $415 $443 $305 $287 $294 $311 $306 $331 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 Winter 2008/09 Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 Winter 2011/12 Winter 2012/13 Winter 2013/14 Winter Average Daily Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate Vail vs. Aggregate ($ difference) Vail Western Resort Aggregate Source: DestiMetrics. Lodging Metrics 109 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 -$4 -$9 -$4 -$1 $2 -$13 $155 $141 $153 $157 $169 $173 $158 $150 $158 $158 $166 $186 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 Summer 2008 Summer 2009 Summer 2010 Summer 2011 Summer 2012 Summer 2013 Summer Average Daily Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate Vail vs. Aggregate ($ difference) Vail Western Resort Aggregate Source: DestiMetrics. Lodging Metrics - Summary 110 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Winter: Vail very strong •Occupancy ranked #1 among measured western resorts •Steady 12.6 – 14.9 ppt outperformance of average past 6 winters •ADR ranked 3rd •Vail ADR gap widening vs. average ($59 in 08/09, $112 in 13/14) •Potential issues / opportunities: •Pushing capacity on weekends? Limits potential additional upside? •Value perceptions? •Dividend of recent lodging upgrades sustainable? •Summer: Vail moderately strong •Occupancy ranked 5th; 3ppts above average •ADR ranked 6th; $13 below average •Potential issues / opportunities: •Capacity relatively underutilized •Continued opportunity to drive visitation (special events, etc.) •Relatively weak Sundays/Mondays (opportunities for longer stays?) •Capitalize on relatively lower ADRs? TOV Sales Tax 111 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 16% 19% 26% -34% 12% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 Retail Lodging & Property Management Food & Beverage Other Total (x3) % C h a n g e 2 0 0 8 - 13 An n u a l S a l e s T a x C o l l e c t i o n s ( M i l l i o n s ) TOV Sales Tax Collections by Sector, 1997-2013 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 vs. 2008 Source: TOV, Annual Vail Business Review; RRC Associates. TOV Sales Tax 112 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 17% 24% 26% -28% 16% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Retail Lodging & Prop Mgt Food & Beverage Other TOTAL (x3) % C h a n g e , 1 3 / 1 4 v s . 0 7 0 8 Sa l e s T a x C o l l e c t i o n s ( M i l l i o n s ) TOV Sales Tax Collections by Sector, Winter 1995/96-2013/14 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 13/14 vs. 07/08 Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr. TOV Sales Tax 113 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 14% 33% 32% -39% 11% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% $0 $1 $2 $3 Retail Lodging & Property Management Food & Beverage Other TOTAL (x3) Pe r c e n t C h a n g e 2 0 0 8 - 20 1 3 Sa l e s T a x C o l l e c t i o n s ( M i l l i o n s ) TOV Sales Tax Collections by Sector, Summer 1997-2013 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 vs. 2008 Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct. TOV Sales Tax 114 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 33% 34% 24% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Retail Lodging & Property Management Food & Beverage Other Sh a r e o f A n n u a l S a l e s T a x C o l l e c t i o n s TOV Share of Sales Tax Collections by Sector, 1997 - 2013 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. TOV Sales Tax 115 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 32% 21% 37% 40% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Retail Lodging & Property Management Food & Beverage Other TOTALSh a r e o f A n n u a l S a l e s C o l l e c t i o n s O c c u r r i n g i n S u m m e r TOV Share of Annual Sales Tax Collections Occurring in Summer: by Sector, 1997-2013 Summer 1997 share of Nov 1-Oct 31 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Summer 2013 share of Nov 1-Oct 31 Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct. TOV Sales Tax 116 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $1.43 $0.48 $1.16 $2.57 $0.25 $0.07 $0.06 $1.28 $0.00 0% 25% 46% 14% 10% -33% 1% 26% -54% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% $- $1 $2 $3 Food Liquor Apparel Sport Jewelry Gift Gallery Other Home Occupation % C h a n g e , 2 0 1 3 v s . 2 0 0 8 An n u a l S a l e s T a x C o l l e c t i o n s ( M i l l i o n s ) TOV Retail Sales Tax Collections by Type, 1999-2013 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13 vs. 08 Source: TOV, Annual Vail Business Review; RRC Associates. TOV Sales Tax 117 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 48% 21% 18% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Vail Village Lionshead Cascade Village/East Vail/Sandstone/West Vail Out of town Sh a r e o f T o t a l A n n u a l T a x a b l e S a l e s TOV Neighborhood Share of Total Taxable Sales, 2007-2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: TOV, Annual Vail Business Review; RRC Associates. TOV Sales Tax - Summary 118 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •TOV taxable sales have exceeded pre-recession peak (+12% 2013 v. 2008) •Summer 2013 vs. 2008: +11% overall •Winter 2013/14 vs. 2007/08: +16% overall •Lodging, F&B, retail have all grown strongly; “other” has declined •Sectoral mix of sales activity has shifted over time •Absolute growth in all sectors except other •Relative growth of lodging & F&B, relative decline of retail & other •Within retail, absolute growth in liquor, apparel, sport, other •Flat trending for food stores and (recently) galleries •Declining trend for jewelry and gift •Locational mix of sales activity has shifted post-recession •Increased share of sales in Vail Village •Lionshead relatively flat •Decreased share in other Vail, out of town •Summer share of sales has edged up slightly (28.7% in 2006 -> 30.1% in 2013) •Issues/opportunities: •Ensuring vitality of retail; online & downvalley competition •Vitality outside of Vail Village •Summer gap vs. winter Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 119 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $540 $392 $109 $155 $159 $561 $687 $420 $112 12% 26% 15% 12% 11% 10% 5% -5% -13% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Vail Breckenridge Telluride Snowmass Avon Aspen Park City Steamboat Beaver Creek South Lake Tahoe (thru 2012) Pe r c e n t C h a n g e , 2 0 0 8 -13 An n u a l T a x a b l e S a l e s ( M i l l i o n s ) Total Annual Taxable Sales, 2002-2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Chg 2008-13 Source: Respective towns, UT State Tax Commission & CA State Board of Equalization; RRC Associates. Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 120 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 16% 26% 15% 13% 12% 8% 6% -4% -13% 11% 39% 22% 15% 14% 8% 8% -4% -5% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Growth in Taxable Sales Since Pre-Recession Peak Winter and Summer Source: Respective towns; RRC Associates; DestiMetrics. Summer=May-Oct; Winter=Nov-Apr. Park City based on quarterly reports (winter=Oct -Mar). Telluride winter 13/14 extrapolated from Nov-Mar reports. Growth in WINTER taxable sales 2007/08 - 2013/14 Growth in SUMMER taxable sales 2008 - 2013 Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 121 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 48% 56% 56% 57% 64% 68% 70% 77% 79% 52% 44% 44% 43% 36% 32% 30% 23% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Telluride Steamboat Aspen Avon Breckenridge Park City*Vail Beaver Creek Snowmass Village Ta x a b l e L o d g i n g S a l e s ( M i l l i o n s ) Share of Sales Tax Collections, Winter 2012/13 vs. Summer 2013 Percent of taxable sales in Summer 2013 Percent of taxable sales in Winter 2012/13 Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct; Winter=Nov-Apr. Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 122 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 30% 52% 36% 44% 44% 23% 21% 32% 43% -0.3% 4.3% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% -0.2% -0.6% -1.5% -2.3% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Vail Telluride Breckenridge Steamboat Aspen Beaver Creek Snowmass Village Park City*Avon Pe r c e n t C h a n g e i n S u m m e r S h a r e , 2 0 0 4 -20 1 3 Sh a r e o f S a l e s O c c u r r i n g i n S u m m e r Share of Annual Taxable Sales Occurring in Summer, 2004-2013 Summer 2004 share of Nov 1-Oct 31 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Summer 2013 share of Nov 1-Oct 31 Ppt Change, 2004-2013 Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct. * Based on quarterly reports. Summer=Apr-Sept. Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 123 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 33.7% 45.2% 41.2% 25.4% 22.7% 16.0% 14.3% 14.0% 5.0% -0.2% -7.0% 1.0% 1.8% -2.4% -4.1% 7.6% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Vail Beaver Creek Snowmass Breckenridge Aspen Steamboat Telluride Avon Pe r c e n t P o i n t C h a n g e , 2 0 0 3 -20 1 3 Sh a r e o f T o t a l S a l e s A t t r i b u t a b l e t o L o d g i n g Percent of Total Taxable Sales Attributable to Lodging, 2003-2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ppt change, 2003-13 Source: Respective towns; RRC Associates. Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 124 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 26 18 18 15 13 8 7 6 4 4 24 34 18 8 23 20 12 7 7 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jackson Park City Steamboat VAIL Aspen Breckenridge Telluride/Mountain Village Teton Village Beaver Creek Snowmass AAA-Rated Hotels and Restaurants Total AAA-rated hotels Total AAA-rated restaurants Source: AAA Tourbooks (2012 editions). Includes establishments rated with 1 to 5 diamonds. Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set - Summary 125 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Growth since pre-recession peak has varied by resort, with Vail about average: •TOV up 12% 2008-13. Lower than Breckenridge (26%) and Telluride (15%). Similar to Snowmass (12%), Avon (11%), Aspen (10%). Greater than Steamboat (-5%) and Beaver Creek (-13%). •Vail’s tax collections have a strong winter focus: 70% winter/30% summer •Most other resorts also tilt to winter, but not as strongly, e.g. Aspen 56/44 mix. (Exceptions – BC, Snowmass are more winter-focused.) •Likely reflects Vail’s very strong winter performance, comparatively softer summer tourism, & relatively modest local resident economic base •Seasonal shifts over time: •Several resorts have gradually become more summer-focused over time: Telluride, Breckenridge, Steamboat •Others have maintained are relatively stable balance: Vail, Aspen, Park City, Snowmass, BC •Almost all resorts have seen increased summer share since 2008-10, but at least some of that might be disproportionate recessionary impact on winter •Vail’s tax base is somewhat more heavily focused on lodging than most other resorts •Vail’s focus on lodging has also increased more than most other resorts over time •Likely speaks to Vail’s tourism focused economy & upgrades to lodging bed base Employment and Establishments 126 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 12% 15% 15% 19% 17% 54% 62% 59% 41% 61% 9% 11% 8% 17% 5% 6% 4% 4% 12% 5% Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County Base Industry Employment by County, 2012 Households Tourism Regional Center/National Services Traditional Source: CO State Demographer, Economic Base Analysis (2012); RRC Associates. 29,391 10,625 16,651 14,536 5,003 -7.7% -8.7% -2.6% -7.3% -9.9% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County Pe r c e n t C h a n g e , 2 0 0 8 -20 1 3 Re s i d e n t s i n L a b o r F o r c e Residents in Labor Force by County, 2004-2013 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Change, 2008-2013 Source: CO Department of Labor & Employment, Labor Force Employment & Unemployment; RRC Associates. Note: Labor force counts are not seasonally adjusted. Employment and Establishments 127 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Employment and Establishments 128 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 6.6% 6.5% 5.8% 5.8% 6.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County Un e m p l o y m e n t R a t e Unemployment Rate by County, 2000-2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CO Department of Labor & Employment, Labor Force Employment & Unemployment. Recovery, 2010-2013: 45% Recovery, 2010-2013: 28% Recovery, 2010-2013: 21% Recovery, 2010-2013: 64% Recovery, 2010-2013: 38% Employment and Establishments 129 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 775 780 787 774 668 637 625 629 612 598 578 565 565 551 557 1123 850 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 To t a l N u m b e r o f E s t a b l i s h m e n t s Total Number of Establishments, 1998-2012 Vail Aspen Breckenridge Source: US Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Plans by NAICS; RRC Associates. Employment and Establishments - Summary 130 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Base industry employment: •Eagle, Pitkin, Summit, and San Miguel counties have similar reliance on tourism for base industry jobs (54-62%); remainder split between households, regional center/national services, and traditional. •Routt County also has a large, albeit smaller, tourism base (41%) •Labor force: As of 2013, still below pre-recession peaks in all compared resort counties •Unemployment rate: Still elevated as of 2013 in all comparison counties. •Establishments: Long term decline in establishments in Vail, vs. increase in Breckenridge, and decline since 2006 in Aspen. More research needed to evaluate sectors with reduced establishments. Real Estate 131 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $203 $380 $400 $277 $199 $259 $253 $259 $302 $217 $374 $128 $412 $175 $261 $236 $505 $596 $774 $405 $610 $434 $514 $495 $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Gr o s s R e a l E s t a t e S a l e s ( M i l l i o n s ) TOV Gross Real Estate Sales Volume, 2006-2013 Winter Summer Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov (of prior year)-Apr. Summer=May-Oct. Real Estate 132 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 381 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 To t a l N u m b e r o f R e a l E s t a t e T r a n s a c t i o n s w i t h i n V a i l TOV Total Number of Real Estate Transactions, 2006-2013 Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Annual total based on Nov 1 (of prior year)-Oct 31. Recovery, 2009-2013: 79.7% Real Estate 133 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $1.28 $1.77 $2.38 $1.98 $1.88 $1.74 $1.55 $1.33 $- $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Av e r a g e S a l e P r i c e ( M i l l i o n s ) Average Sale Price of TOV Real Estate, 2006-2013 Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Annual average based on Nov 1 (of prior year)-Oct 31. Real Estate 134 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 95% 95% 96% 92% 85% 88% 89% 91% 95% 94% 97% 85% 90% 90% 90% 92% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Av e r a g e R a t i o o f L i s t P r i c e t o S a l e P r i c e TOV Average Ratio of List Price to Sale Price, 2006-2013 Winter Summer Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov (of prior year)-Apr. Summer=May-Oct. Real Estate 135 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $486 $1,403 $1,238 $889 $504 $339 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Vail Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County Gr o s s R e a l E s t a t e S a l e s ( M i l l i o n s ) Annual Gross Real Estate Sales, 2004-2013 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Land Title Guarantee Company, Colorado Mountain Resorts Market Analysis (4th Quarter) & Eagle County Market Analysis; RRC Ass ociates. Recovery 2009-2013: 56% Recovery 2009-2013: 15% Recovery 2009-2013: 39% Recovery 2009-2013: 38% Recovery 2009-2013: 30% Recovery 2009-2013: 97% Real Estate 136 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 354 1,766 1,702 1,908 1,278 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Vail Eagle Pitkin Summit Routt To t a l N u m b e r o f T r a n s a c t i o n s Annual Number of Real Estate Transactions, 2006-2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Land Title Guarantee Company, Market Analysis for respective counties; RRC Associates. Recovery 2009-2013: 88% Recovery 2009-2013: 53% Recovery 2009-2013: 20% Recovery 2009-2013: 142% Recovery 2009-2013: 62% Real Estate 137 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 53% 49% 26% 43% 34% 15% 3% 40% 13% 3% 30% 45% 33% 43% 61% Eagle Pitkin Summit Routt San Miguel 2013 Buyer Profile by County International Out of State (Domestic) Front Range Local Source: Land Title Guarantee Company, Colorado Mountain Resorts Market Analysis (4th Quarter); RRC Associates. Real Estate 138 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 35 % 7% 6% 6% 6%5% 4% 2% 2%2% 12 % 11 % 14 % 6% 6% 8% 5% 3%3% 3% 29 % 10 % 11 % 6% 3% 5% 1%2% 2%2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Pe r c e n t R e s p o n d i n g Primary Residence Location of Second-Home Owners By State/Country (Top 10) Vail Beaver Creek Other Eagle County Source:AssessorData from Eagle County (2011);RRC Associates Real Estate - Summary 139 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SUMMARY: REAL ESTATE •Sales trends in TOV: •TOV seeing recovery in sales transactions, list:sales price ratios •Average prices trending down. Total dollar volume erratic, up from low point. •Sales trends in resort counties: •Gross dollar volumes well below peaks, but up from lows; choppy post-recession. •Sales transaction counts trending up from lows in most communities. •Second homeowner residence: •Approximately 1/3rd of second homeowners are from Front Range – similar to Breckenridge, moderately higher vs. Steamboat, and much higher than Beaver Creek, Pitkin Co and San Miguel Co. •Other 2nd homeowners are widely dispersed. In Vail, led by FL (7%), TX (6%), CA (6%), NY (6%) and IL (5%). Air Transport 140 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 16 18 20 22 24 26 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nu m b e r o f E n p l a n e m e n t s ( M i l l i o n s ) Year Denver International Airport Annual Enplanements, 2000-2013 Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Annual Passenger Boarding and All-Cargo Data; RRC Associates. 134 128 73 3 21 116 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 EGE (Vail)ASE (Aspen)HDN (Steamboat)TEX (Telluride)GUC (Crested Butte)JAC (Jackson Hole) Nu m b e r o f E n p l a n e m e n t s ( T h o u s a n d s ) Resort Airports Domestic Enplanements, Winter 2002/03-2013/14 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Passengers by Month Data; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr. Air Transport 141 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 Air Transport 142 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 30 80 17 2 9 186 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 EGE (Vail)ASE (Aspen)HDN (Steamboat)TEX (Telluride)GUC (Crested Butte)JAC (Jackson Hole) Nu m b e r o f E n p l a n e m e n t s ( T h o u s a n d s ) Resort Airports Domestic Enplanements, Summer 2003-2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Passengers by Month Data; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct. Air Transport - Summary 143 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •DIA: •Strong long-term growth in enplanements; great asset for Vail •Ability to retain 3 airline hubs & competitive fares? •Eagle Airport: •Significant declines in winter enplanements since peak (-25% 06/07 – 12/13). •Summer volume (30K enplanements 2013) much lower than winter (137K). Down -37% from 2008. •Other mountain resort airports: •Hayden, Telluride, and Gunnison have experienced declines similar to EGE. •Jackson and Aspen have been more resilient re: enplanements. •Jackson and Sun Valley becoming increasingly aggressive in expanding air service to new communities. Highway Traffic 144 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 3.9% -2.1% 4.4% -1.7% -6.3% 7.3% -5.8% 14.4% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 I-70 Eisenhower Tunnel I-70 Vail Pass I-70 Dowd Junction I-70 Glenwood Canyon Hwy 82 Snowmass Hwy 9 Breckenridge US 40 Steamboat I-80 Parley's Canyon (UT) % C h a n g e , 20 0 7 / 0 8 -20 1 3 / 1 4 Av e r a g e D a i l y T r a f f i c ( b o t h d i r e c t i o n s ) Average Daily Highway Traffic, Winter 2004/05-2013/14 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 % Change, 2007/08-2013/14 Source: CDOT, Monthly Traffic Data & UDOT, Monthly Traffic Bulletins; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr. Highway Traffic 145 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 1.6% -2.7% -2.3% -2.2% -9.9% 5.5% -7.3% 7.3% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 I-70 Eisenhower Tunnel I-70 Vail Pass I-70 Dowd Junction I-70 Glenwood Canyon Hwy 82 Snowmass Hwy 9 Breckenridge US 40 Steamboat I-80 Parley's Canyon (UT) % C h a n g e , 20 0 8 -20 1 3 Av e r a g e D a i l y T r a f f i c ( b o t h d i r e c t i o n s ) Average Daily Highway Traffic, Summer 2004-2013 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008-13 % Change Source: CDOT, Monthly Traffic Data & UDOT, Monthly Traffic Bulletins; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct. Highway Traffic 146 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 101% 120% 107% 137% 109% 93% 132% 111% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 I-70 Eisenhower Tunnel I-70 Vail Pass I-70 Dowd Junction I-70 Glenwood Canyon Hwy 82 Snowmass Hwy 9 Breckenridge US 40 Steamboat I-80 Parley's Canyon (UT) Ra t i o o f S u m m e r t o W i n t e r Av e r a g e D a i l y T r a f f i c ( b o t h d i r e c t i o n s ) Average Daily Highway Traffic, Summer 2013 vs. Winter 2013/14 Summer 2013 Winter 2013/14 Ratio of summer to winter Source: CDOT, Monthly Traffic Data & UDOT, Monthly Traffic Bulletins; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct, Winter=Nov-Apr. Highway Traffic 147 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 12 A M 1A M 2A M 3A M 4A M 5A M 6A M 7A M 8A M 9A M 10 A M 11 A M 12 P M 1P M 2P M 3P M 4P M 5P M 6P M 7P M 8P M 9P M 10 P M 11 P M Saturday Av e r a g e H o u r l y T r a f f i c Average Westbound Saturday Winter Traffic, I-70 at Eisenhower Tunnel 2013/14 1996/97 2003/04 Source: CDOT, Hourly Traffic Data; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr. Highway Traffic 148 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 12 A M 1A M 2A M 3A M 4A M 5A M 6A M 7A M 8A M 9A M 10 A M 11 A M 12 P M 1P M 2P M 3P M 4P M 5P M 6P M 7P M 8P M 9P M 10 P M 11 P M Sunday Av e r a g e H o u r l y T r a f f i c Average Eastbound Sunday Winter Traffic, I-70 at Eisenhower Tunnel 2013/14 1996/97 2003/04 Source: CDOT, Hourly Traffic Data; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr. Highway Traffic - Summary 149 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Growth trends: •Traffic volumes on several key tourism highways have had little net change over past 10 years •Within that time, traffic declined in recent recession, with varying degrees of recovery since then •Note that factors other than tourism can impact traffic - e.g. general economic conditions, population growth, demand suppression due to congestion, etc. •Seasonal balance: •Average daily traffic is typically higher in summer than winter – likely reflective of differing visitor profile & travel patterns in each season •Time of day (Eisenhower): •Saturday westbound peak have extended later •Sunday eastbound peak has moved much earlier •Above trends may reflect congestion avoidance strategies, changes in skiing patterns with season passes SWOT Analysis THREATS (CHALLENGES) 150 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Complacency – doing little to address the long term opportunities and ignoring trends. •Divisions concerning which future(s) should be pursued – For example, by age cohorts, year round/part time residents, Vail Resorts versus the Town, etc. •Climate change •Growth of passes in other regions changing visitation patterns and creating new loyalties •Degrading of experience and brand with deteriorating quality or crowded conditions SWOT Analysis THREATS (CHALLENGES) 151 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Summer – more competition from multiple sources •Loss of the baby boomers without a message/product and direction for the next generation •Loss or degradation of the local environment through gradual decline or a big event – Gore Creek, fire, more vegetation kill, population growth, increased peaking of demand, etc. •I-70 – traffic, noise, trucks, impact on character of Town (in other words, the highway presents multiple challenges that together represent ongoing threats). •Travel industry diversification – new behaviors and choices SWOT Analysis OPPORTUNITIES 152 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •2015 World Alpine Championships, US Pro Challenge, Burton US Open Snowboarding Championships, other events that continue to put Vail on the National and World Stage •Summer economic growth •Climate change (relative to competition) •New event(s) •Enhance parking experience – (through additional facilities, management and pricing) •While available land is limited, there exists the potential to address competitive opportunities including changing demographics, parking and various aspects of Vail’s identity and brand with physical changes and improvements. Could include West Vail, EverVail, Frontage Road, Timber Ridge, underpass(es), etc. OPPORTUNITIES 153 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Expand brand to embrace an affluent younger clientele – may not be for everyone, but for a segment that is up and coming •Continued population growth in Colorado; Vail will get its fair share. •DIA, a major airport centrally located •Expanded international tourism as Denver grows and the world comes to Colorado and potentially the mountains. •Enhanced flight offerings at Eagle County Regional Airport – international terminal •I-70 enhancements and changes from tolling, truck restrictions, etc. •Vail’s retail mix - quality and quantity SWOT Analysis 154 •The Vail Brand •Vail Mountain and Back Bowls •New lodging properties and relatively high quality bed base •Signature events (Bravo, Mountain Games, etc.) and the overall program of events including the particular success of Farmers Market •Vail Valley Medical Center/Steadman Hawkins reputation and presence •Proximity to Denver and Front Range •Reputation on Front Range •The Epic Pass and the Vail Resorts brand and initiatives, and the Vail Resorts name and reach STRENGTHS Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 155 •Vail Resorts capital improvements – winter and summer •The Community Survey indicates that Vail is in “good shape” and that there are no glaring deficiencies. High ratings of service delivery and positive comments about management and fiscal discipline •The economic strength of second homeowners, along with their geographic origins, give Vail broad reach in multiple regions. This is further expanded by Beaver Creek. •International Visibility (note that measuring international reputation would require testing) STRENGTHS Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 156 •Perception of value and the actuality of relatively higher costs than most competing resorts. •Limited land for expansion and for major new facilities •Lack of developed space at the base of the mountain for events and concerts. (The limitations of Gold Peak have been identified.) Long term, is there an opportunity to mitigate some of the physical limitations? •No true conference facility and limited improved concert and outdoor gathering spaces WEAKNESSES Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis 157 •Workforce and affordable housing – vulnerability to down-valley competition and to increased costs of labor as overall economy improves •The parking experience, and issues of price, and supply at certain times •I-70 – both its presence bisecting the Town, and problems of access at peak times •The Vail brand may be a turnoff for some, especially the younger set (requires testing to confirm or reject) •Vulnerability to climate change WEAKNESSES Town of Vail | 07/15/14 SWOT Analysis Questions for Council PART 1 158 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •From this SWOT list, what stands out as correct and what rings incorrect? Is this the right list? What’s missing in the opinion of Council? •If the SWOT analysis seems incorrect, is there additional information that can be acquired to further understand the identified trend or direction? Or is it that you simply don’t agree, that you don’t think the particular theme or idea is important for Vail? •Is there support for exploring ideas about potential physical changes (EverVail, West Vail, intercept parking, trails, the Frontage Road, etc.) as a part of positioning Vail for long-term changes in demography, technology, consumer habits, the competitive environment, etc.? Questions for Council PART 2 159 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 •Is there support for broadening the Vail economy by pursuing additional economic initiatives such as health care, quality of life exploration, or Lone Eagle opportunities? If yes, what additional information or direction is needed to galvanize support and leadership toward these additional (beyond tourism) alternative economic futures beyond tourism? •Is there a next “big idea” or is Vail’s future to continue to take smaller but very deliberate steps to perform at the very highest levels in the identified industries? •What are the next steps in this process? a)Work session in August? b)RRC collects further secondary information to address identified gaps? c)Additional primary research? d)Other: Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 161 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $372 $313 $243 $229 $52 $466 $121 $85 $88 39% 38% 44% 23% 18% 62% 44% -2% 36% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Vail Aspen Breckenridge Steamboat Telluride Park City*Snowmass Village Beaver Creek Avon Pe r c e n t C h a n g e , 2 0 0 3 / 0 4 -20 1 2 / 1 3 Ta x a b l e S a l e s ( M i l l i o n s ) Total Winter Taxable Sales, 2003/04-2012/13 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 % Change, 2003/04-2012/13 Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr. * Based on quarterly reports. Winter=Oct-Mar. Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set 162 Town of Vail | 07/15/14 $156 $242 $139 $183 $56 $224 $33 $25 $67 40% 48% 67% 40% 46% 67% 61% 6% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Vail Aspen Breckenridge Steamboat Telluride Park City*Snowmass Village Beaver Creek Avon Pe r c e n t C h a n g e , 2 0 0 3 -20 1 3 Ta x a b l e S a l e s ( M i l l i o n s ) Total Summer Taxable Sales, 2003-2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Change, 2003-2013 Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct. * Based on quarterly reports. Summer=Apr-Sept.