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HomeMy WebLinkAbout1.d. RRC Report- Competitive AssessmentVail Competitive Assessment
RRC Associates
July 15, 2014
RRC ASSOCIATES
Chris Cares
Nate Fristoe
David Becher
Office: (303) 449-6558
rrcassociates.com
2 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
3
•To consolidate information in a single place to “ground”
discussion on Vail’s future
•To provide an objective fact-based overview of:
o Resort industry trends and upcoming changes in the next 5
to 10 years
o To provide a set of comparisons to allow Vail to measure
against others
•To initiate discussions by Council to identify missing or needed
information and next steps for the Town.
Objectives of RRC’s participation at the Vail Council Retreat
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
THREE FOCUS AREAS | 2014-2016
4 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Our Mission - Grow a vibrant, diverse economy and community,
providing our citizens and guests with exceptional services and an
abundance of recreational, cultural and educational opportunities.
Vail Town Council Action Plan
GOAL AREA I
GOAL - Grow a vibrant and
diverse economy that keeps
us at the forefront of our
resort competitors for the
long-term with continued
opportunities for private and
public investment and
philanthropy.
5 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Jack Affleck
Vail Town Council Action Plan
KEY INITIATIVES & TACTICS
TACTICS
•Long-term strategic
plan to enhance
competitiveness of TOV
•Economic diversity
strategy
•Air service expansion
leadership
•TOV endowment fund
6 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail Town Council Action Plan
7
•The Vail Brand
•Vail Mountain and Back Bowls
•New lodging properties and relatively high quality bed base
•Signature events (Bravo, Mountain Games, etc.) and the overall program of
events including the particular success of Farmers Market
•Vail Valley Medical Center/Steadman Hawkins reputation and presence
•Proximity to Denver and Front Range
•Reputation on Front Range
•The Epic Pass and the Vail Resorts brand and initiatives, and the Vail
Resorts name and reach
STRENGTHS
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
8
•Vail Resorts capital improvements – winter and summer
•The Community Survey indicates that Vail is in “good shape” and that there
are no glaring deficiencies. High ratings of service delivery and positive
comments about management and fiscal discipline
•The economic strength of second homeowners, along with their geographic
origins, give Vail broad reach in multiple regions. This is further expanded by
Beaver Creek.
•International Visibility (note that measuring international reputation would
require testing)
STRENGTHS
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
9
•Perception of value and the actuality of relatively higher costs than most
competing resorts.
•Limited land for expansion and for major new facilities
•Lack of developed space at the base of the mountain for events and
concerts. (The limitations of Gold Peak have been identified. Long term, is
there an opportunity to mitigate some of the physical limitations?
•No true conference facility and limited improved concert and outdoor
gathering spaces
WEAKNESSES
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
10
•Workforce and affordable housing – vulnerability to down-valley competition
and to increased costs of labor as overall economy improves
•The parking experience, and issues of price, and supply at certain times
•I-70 – both its presence bisecting the Town, and problems of access at peak
times
•The Vail brand may be a turnoff for some, especially the younger set (
requires testing to confirm or reject)
•Vulnerability to climate change
WEAKNESSES
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
11
A Brief Industry Overview
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
12
52.5 54.1 52.1 52.2
57.3 54.4 57.6 57.1 56.9 58.9 55.1
60.5 57.4 59.8 60.5
51.0
56.9 56.2
16.1 15.5 17.4 17.4
18.6
18.9
18.9 19.1 18.0 18.6
18.7
20.3
18.3 18.1 18.9
17.7
18.6 18.0
68.6 69.7 69.5 69.6
75.9
73.3
76.5 76.2 74.9
77.5
73.8
80.8
75.7 77.9 79.4
68.7
75.5 74.2
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Sk
i
e
r
/
S
n
o
w
b
o
a
r
d
e
r
V
i
s
i
t
s
(
i
n
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Season
U.S. and Canadian Skier/Snowboarder Visits:
1996/97 to 2013/14
Canada
U.S.
North American Skier/Snowboarder Visits (excludes Nordi & Heli)
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
US & Canada Skier/Snowboarder Visits
13 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Total Active US Snowsports Participants
14
315,200,000
56,800,000
10,000,000
20,000,000
18% of population
6.3% of population
3.2% of population ACTIVE
LAPSED
Socio-Economic
Match
Total population
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Estimated Market Size for Downhill Snow Sports in US
15
Never
Been
Beginner
Revival
Drop-
Out
Core
Lapsed
THE MODEL
FOR GROWTH
Annual Growth in
Trial
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
16
Never
Been
Beginner
10%
Revival
25%
Drop-
Out
Core
65%
15%
85%
Lapsed
20%
75%
0%
25%
THE MODEL
1999/2000
Annual Growth in
Trial=0.0%
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
17
Never
Been
Beginner
8%
Revival
27%
Drop-
Out
Core
65%
Annual Growth in
Trial=-3.3%
17%
83%
Lapsed
27%
75%
-1.7%
25%
THE MODEL
2012/2013
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
18
57.1 56.2 55.3 54.4 53.6 52.8 52.0 51.2 50.5 49.8 49.0 48.4 47.7 47.1 46.5 45.9 45.3
57.1 56.9 56.8 56.8 56.9 57.0 57.2 57.5 58.0 58.5 59.1 59.9 60.8 61.8 63.0 64.1 65.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Vi
s
i
t
s
Visitation Projections from
2013/14 through 2029/30: Decline vs. Growth
-3% Decline in Trial
6% Growth in Trial / 0.2% Improvement in Conversion
Visitation Projections
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
19
Trial Goals Translated
•On average we see about 1,000,000
first timers in any given season.
•Based on a 6% growth in trial we
would like to see an additional 60,000
first timers on the slopes.
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
20
Number of First Time Participants
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
21
Trends of Note
•Significant generational differences in participation
patterns
•Slow growth in building diversity
•Income inequality, the aging of wealth, and the
affordability factor
•Significant gender differences in participation levels
•Impacts of climate change
•The need to capitalize on summer
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
22
Generational Differences
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
23
Generational Differences
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
V
i
s
i
t
s
Single Year of Age
Percent of Visits by Single Year of Age:
2012/13 vs. 2002/03
2012/13
2002/03
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
24
Generational Differences
The Greatest Generation:
•Born prior to 1928.
•Currently age 87 and over.
•1.3% of population.
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
25
Generational Differences
The Silent Generation:
•Born between 1928 and 1945.
•Currently age 69 to 86.
•9% of population
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
26
Generational Differences
The Baby Boomer:
•Born between 1946 and 1964.
•Currently age 50 to 68.
•23% of population.
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
27
Generational Differences
Generation X:
•Born between 1965 and 1980.
•Currently age 34 to 49.
•21% of population.
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
28
Generational Differences
Millennials:
•Born after 1980.
•Currently age 33 and under.
•18-33 year olds are 22% of population.
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
29
Generational Differences
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
30
Generational Differences
20%
50%
68%
83%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Silent Generation
Baby Boomer
Gen X
Millenials
Percent Responding
Percent Indicating Place Their Cell Phone On or
Right Next to Their Bed When Sleeping
Percent Who Sleep With Cell Phone
CELL PHONE USE
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
31
Percent of Adults Living Alone by Gender and Age: 1850-2010
More adults live alone than at any point in human history. In Atlanta, Denver, Seattle, San
Francisco and Minneapolis - 40 percent or more of all households contain a single occupant.
Sources: Analysis by Susan Weber and Andrew Beveridge, Queens College, CUNY, from historical and current census data
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
32
Diminished Value of Ownership and the
Rise of the Sharing Economy
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
33
Total Active US Snowsports Participants
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
34
Total Active US Snowsports Participants
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
35
US Snowsports Participants by Cohort
77.3%79.1%78.8%77.3%75.9%74.0%72.8%71.0%69.1%67.5%66.8%65.4%65.8%63.1%60.3%58.0%55.3%
22.7%20.9%21.2%22.7%24.1%26.0%27.2%29.0%30.9%32.5%33.2%34.6%34.2%36.9%39.7%42.0%44.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
P
a
r
t
i
c
i
p
a
n
t
s
Percent of Total U.S. Participants by Cohort:
1996/97 to 2012/13
Percent Millenial to GenX
Percent Boom & Pre-Boom
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
36
US Snowsports Participants by Age Group
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55 -64 65 and over
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
V
i
s
i
t
s
Percent of Visits Accounted for by Age Group: 1996/97 to 2012/13
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
37
Number of 18 to 39 Year Old Coloradans vs. 18 to 39 Year Old Colorado Skiers/Snowboarders: 1996/97 to 2012/13
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Si
z
e
o
f
G
r
o
u
p
18 to 39 Year Old Colorado Skiers/Snowboarders
18 to 39 Year Old Coloradans
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
38
Is Resort Product in Alignment with Millennial Needs?
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
39
Growing Diversity
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
40
Growing Diversity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
N
o
n
-Wh
i
t
e
Single Year of Age
Percent Non -White by Single Year of Age
2014 2040
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
41
Growing Diversity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
N
o
n
-Wh
i
t
e
Single Year of Age
Percent Non-White in 2012 Population vs. 2012/13 Skier/Snowboarder
Population by Single Year of Age
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percent Non-White in Population)
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percent Non-White in Skier/Snowboarder Population)
20-40
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
42
Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
43
Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
44
Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth
Source: http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412766-Lost-Generations-Wealth-Building-Among-Young-Americans.pdf
AVERAGE NET WORTH BY AGE & YEAR
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
45
Source: http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/412766-Lost-Generations-Wealth-Building-Among-Young-Americans.pdf
CHANGE IN AVERAGE NET WORTH BY AGE GROUP: 1983-2010
Income Inequality and the Aging of Wealth
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
46
Lack of Mobility by Geography
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
47
Visits by Income
30%
25%
18%
27%
25%24%
19%
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under $50,000 $50,000 -$99,999 $100,000 -$149,999 $150,00 or above
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
R
e
s
p
o
n
d
i
n
g
Household Income Category
Percent of Visits Accounted for by Household Income Category:
2007/08 to 2012/13
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
48
Average Adult Ticket Price
$48.49
$53.34 $55.11
$58.96 $61.99
$66.13 $68.90
$72.28 $73.11
$76.89
$82.07
$86.17
$93.33
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
L
i
f
t
T
i
c
k
e
t
P
r
i
c
e
(
w
e
e
k
e
n
d
)
U.S. Average Adult Lift Ticket Price (weekend):
2001/02 to 2013/14
Avg. Lift Ticket Price (weekend)
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Avg. Season Pass Price:
2000/01 = $625
2012/13 = $717
49
Gender Differences in Participation
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
50
Gender Differences in Participation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
V
i
s
i
t
s
Single Year of Age
Visits Accounted for by Gender and Single Year of Age:
2010/11 to 2012/13 Average
Male
Female
HI
G
H
R
I
S
K
Z
O
N
E
42-50
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
51
Snowboarding
•Share of visits from
snowboarders dropped to 26.6%
in 2013/14, down from 30.6% in
2010/11
•Decline seen in all regions and all
size ski areas
•Most pronounced drop in Pacific
South (down 10 percentage
points in 3 years)
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
52
Snowboarding
7.6
7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0
6.6 6.6 6.7
6.4 6.5 6.5
6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
5.9
5.5 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7
5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5
5.7
5.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Av
e
r
a
g
e
D
a
y
s
S
k
i
e
d
/
S
n
o
w
b
o
a
r
d
e
d
Average Days Skied or Snowboarded:
1996/97 to 2012/13
Average Days for Snowboarders
Average Days for Skiers
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
53
Gender Differences in Participation
51%52%52%52%50%51%51%51%51%52%52%52%53%53%53%53%
49%48%48%48%50%49%49%49%49%48%48%48%47%47%47%47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
P
a
r
t
i
c
i
p
a
n
t
s
Gender Ratios for Ski Participants:
1996/97 to 2011/12
Male
Female
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
54
Gender Differences in Participation
65%
62%62%61%61%62%61%62%62%62%62%62%63%63%63%64%
35%
38%38%39%39%38%39%38%38%38%38%38%37%37%37%36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
P
a
r
t
i
c
i
p
a
n
t
s
Gender Ratios for Snowboarding Participants:
1996/97 to 2011/12
Male
Female
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
55
Climate Change
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
56
Climate Change
GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MODEL PROJECTIONS
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
57
Climate Change
PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THROUGH 2100
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
58
Climate Change
PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL SNOW THROUGH 2100
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
59
Climate Change
PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE THROUGH 2100: COLORADO
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
60
Climate Change
PROJECTED CHANGES IN AVERAGE ANNUAL SNOW THROUGH 2100: COLORADO
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
61
Climate Change
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURES
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
62
Climate Change
JANUARY OBSERVED AND PROJECTED TEMPERATURES
Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
63
Climate Change
JULY OBSERVED AND PROJECTED TEMPERATURES
Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
64
Climate Change
PROJECTED CHANGE IN COLORADO RIVER BASIN SNOWPACK
Source: 2008, Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
65
Rising Importance of Summer
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Town of Vail | 07/15/14 66
67
Who we are…
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
68
What we sometimes emulate…
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
69
Industry Core Strengths. Are we building on them?
•Unique Product/Location
•High Barriers to Entry
•Scalable Operations
•Dedicated Customer Base
Winter Summer
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
What happens when
we lose our edge with
regards to unique
product and high
barriers to entry?
70 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
And what if our
customer base isn’t as
dedicated or engaged
with the product
offerings we can
successfully monetize?
71 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
72
Rising Importance of Summer
153,860,114
118,163,525
25,925,625 9,770,964
72%
55%
12%
5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
Potential Overnight
Summer Traveler (Over 18,
non-incarcerated, and living
above the poverty line)
Non-Mountain Travelers Mountain Travlers, with Ski
Resort Exposure
Mountain Travelers,
Exclusively Non-Ski
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
U
.
S
.
A
d
u
l
t
s
Traveler Categories
Size of Potential Summer Travel Markets
Number of U.S. Adults in Category
Percent of Overall U.S. Adult Population
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
73
Rising Importance of Summer
SIZING SUMMER VS. WINTER
10M 26M
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
74
Rising Importance of Summer
4.2
4.3
4.5
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.2
6.3
7.0
7.0
7.2
7.4
8.7
8.8
9.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Geocaching
Disc Golf
Mountain Biking (XC)
Hiking
Golf
Downhill Mountain Biking
Festivals/Concerts
Mini Golf
Adventure Races
Climbing Wall
Scenic Lift Rides
Bungee
Weddings/Meetings/Fa…
Ropes/Challenge Course
Zip-line/ Canopy Tour
Mountain Coaster
Water Park
Alpine Slide
Average Rating (1="Not at All Successful"/10="Extremely Successful"
Average Rating of Amenity's Financial Success
Average
Definite winners and losers
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
75
Rising Importance of Summer
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
6%
6%
7%
7%
8%
13%
26%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%
Recommend by friend, family, word of mouth
Wedding/honeymoon/anniversary
Convention/conference/trade show
Seasonal residence
Special package/offer/price/discount
Competitive sporting event participant
Other
Previous experience/annual vacation
Special event
Business/professional
Hadn't been to the area before, wanted to see it
National/state park
Combined business/pleasure
Group arrangement/family reunion
Noncompetitive recreational activity
General sightseeing/touring
Mountain getaway
Climate/weather
Visit friends/relatives
Enjoyment of the ski area resort/town
Rest and relaxation
Enjoyment of the scenic beauty of the mountain/area
Percent Responding
Most Important Reason for Trip to Ski Area
Percent Responding
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Source: NSAA Summer Traveler Survey, RRC Associates.
76
Population Projections
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
STATE OF COLORADO
5,363,689
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Es
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
S
i
z
e
Year
Colorado Population Projections, 2014-2040
Source: CO State Demographer; RRC Associates.
10-yr increase: 885,460 (17%)
10-yr increase: 842,018 (13%)
77
Population Projections
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
BY COUNTY
55,579
17,888
29,811
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Es
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
S
i
z
e
Year
Population Projections by County, 2014-2040
Eagle
Pitkin
Summit
Source: CO State Demographer; RRC Associates.
10-yr increase: 14,360 (26%)
10-yr increase: 8,145 (22%)
10-yr increase: 3,924 (27%)
10-yr increase: 15,282 (22%)
10-yr increase: 4,426 (18%)
10-yr increase: 7,017 (20%)
78 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail Visitation
79 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
2009/10-2013/14
80 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
15,428
54,327
74,141
69,184
72,056
34,637
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
October-November December January February March April
Av
e
r
a
g
e
M
o
n
t
h
l
y
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
F
r
o
n
t
R
a
n
g
e
V
i
s
i
t
o
r
s
5-Year Averages of Monthly Front Range Visitors at Vail, 2009/10-2013/14
5-Year Averages of Monthly Front Range Visitors to Vail
2009/10-2013/14
81 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
5.8%
10.3%
11.1%
12.1%12.3%
13.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
October-November December January February March April
Av
e
r
a
g
e
M
o
n
t
h
l
y
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
F
r
o
n
t
R
a
n
g
e
V
i
s
i
t
o
r
s
5-Year Averages of Monthly Market Share of Front Range Visitors at Vail,
2009/10-2013/14
5-Year Averages of Monthly Market Share Front Range Visitors to Vail
2002/03-2013/14
82 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
9%
12%
11%
12%12%
11%
10%9%9%
12%
10%11%
5%
6%
5%
4%
5%
6%
4%4%
3%
5%
4%
3%
15%15%15%
14%
16%
14%
13%
14%14%
15%
14%
16%
16%16%16%
14%
15%14%
17%17%
15%
15%
14%
13%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2013/142012/132011/122010/112009/102008/092007/082006/072005/062004/052003/042002/03
Se
a
s
o
n
-to
-Da
t
e
M
a
r
k
e
t
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
F
r
o
n
t
R
a
n
g
e
V
i
s
i
t
o
r
s
Season-to-Date Market Share of Front Range Visitors at Vail Resorts, 2002/03-
2013/14
Vail
Beaver Creek
Breckenridge
Keystone
Season-to-Date Share of Front Range Visitors to Vail Resorts
Source: RRC Associates Snowsports Enthusiast Panel.
2001/02-2011/12
83 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail’s Share of Colorado and U.S. Visits
14.5%
13.8%
3.1% 2.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2011-20122010-20112009-20102008-20092007-20082006-20072005-20062004-20052003-20042002-20032001-2002
Vail's Share of Colorado Visits Vail's Share of U.S. Visits
2001/02-2011/12
84 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail, Breckenridge, and Aspen/Snowmass’ Share of Colorado and U.S. Visits
14.5%
13.8%
3.1% 2.8%
13.5% 13.2%
2.9% 2.7%
12.1%
11.4%
2.6% 2.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2011-20122010-20112009-20102008-20092007-20082006-20072005-20062004-20052003-20042002-20032001-2002
Vail's Share of Colorado Visits Vail's Share of U.S. Visits
Breckenridge's Share of Colorado Visits Breckenridges Share of U.S. Visits
Aspen/Snowmass's Share of Colorado Visits Aspen/Snowmass's Share of U.S. Visits
85 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
1,319,400
1,855,263
1,775,355
1,577,386 1,627,008
1,374,696
4.9%
3.6%
3.1%
2.7%2.8%
2.4%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Zermatt Ischgl/Samnaun
Silvretta
Park City Area Breckenridge Vail Aspen/Snowmass
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
5-Se
a
s
o
n
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
S
k
i
e
r
/
S
n
o
w
b
o
a
r
d
e
r
V
i
s
i
t
s
Benchmarking Resort's Five Season Average Skier/Snowboarder Visits
and Five Season Average Share of Home Country's Visitation
Resort's 5-Season Average Skier/Snowboarder Visits
Share of Country's Skier/Snowboarder Visits
Benchmarking Resort’s Five-Season Average Skier/Snowboarder Visits and Five Season Average Share of Home Country’s Visitation
1998/99-2011/12
86 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail vs. Breckenridge Skier/Snowboarder Visits
1,594,250
1,750,000
1,599,000
1,622,000
1,569,788
1,608,204
1,676,118
1,568,192 1,555,513
1,610,961
1,536,024
1,645,902
1,371,702
1,334,939
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Sk
i
e
r
/
S
n
o
w
b
o
a
r
d
e
r
V
i
s
t
i
s
Season
Vail
Breckenridge
1997/98-2011/12
87 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail vs. Aspen/Snowmass Skier/Snowboarder Visits
1,594,250
1,750,000
1,599,000
1,622,000
1,569,788
1,608,204
1,676,118
1,568,192 1,555,513
1,610,961
1,536,024
1,645,902
1,371,702
1,334,939
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Sk
i
e
r
/
S
n
o
w
b
o
a
r
d
e
r
V
i
s
t
i
s
Season
Vail
Aspen/Snowmass
1998/99-2011/12
88 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail vs. Park City Skier/Snowboarder Visits
1,594,250
1,750,000
1,599,000
1,622,000
1,569,788
1,608,204
1,676,118
1,568,192 1,555,513
1,610,961
1,536,024
1,645,902
1,371,702
1,334,939
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Sk
i
e
r
/
S
n
o
w
b
o
a
r
d
e
r
V
i
s
t
i
s
Season
Vail
Park City Area (The Canyons, Deer Valley, & Park City)
1990/91 – 2013/14
89 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail Resorts’ Share of Colorado Skier Visits
38
.
4
%
38
.
6
%
38
.
4
%
38
.
9
%
39
.
4
%
40
.
6
%
41
.
3
%
39
.
4
%
40
.
3
%
42
.
2
%
42
.
6
%
42
.
5
%
41
.
3
%
41
.
5
%
41
.
3
%
42
.
0
%
42
.
3
%
41
.
8
%
43
.
0
%
43
.
2
%
43
.
4
%
44
.
0
%
44
.
1
%
43
.
4
%
Colorado resorts trend: +62,700 visits/yr
y = 62738x + 1E+07
R² = 0.4093
Vail Resorts (CO) trend: +52,300 visits/yr
y = 52316x + 4E+06
R² = 0.7496
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Va
i
l
R
e
s
o
r
t
s
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
C
o
l
o
r
a
d
o
S
k
i
e
r
V
i
s
i
t
s
Sk
i
e
r
V
i
s
i
t
s
(
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Vail Resorts share of Colorado
Colorado resort skier visits (25 resorts, incl. Vail Rsrts)
Vail Resorts skier visits (4 CO resorts)
Source: CSCUSA; Vail Resorts (Vail Resorts data approximate for 2012/13 & 2013/14).
1996/97 - 2013/14
90 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Rocky Mountain Resort Skier Visits by Visitor Type
In-state trend: +109,100 visits/yr
y = 109132x + 7E+06
R² = 0.7129
Out of state trend: -12,600 visits/yr
y = -12567x + 1E+07
R² = 0.0183
International trend: +35,500 visits/yr
y = 35543x + 897533
R² = 0.6873
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sk
i
e
r
V
i
s
i
t
s
(
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
In-state visits
Out of state visits
International visits
Source: NSAA; RRC Associates. NSAA Rocky Mountain Region includes resorts in NM, CO, UT, WY, ID, MT.
Perceptions of Vail
91 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Ski Magazine Survey Analysis
92 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Vail Strengths
2003/04
93 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
terrain
23%
variety
19%
snow
15%
great
9%
bowls
8%
ski
8%
good
7%
size
7%
best
5%
Vail Strengths
2011/12
94 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
terrain
24%
variety
15%
bowls
12%
snow
11%
great
10%
mountain
8%
huge
7%
grooming
6%
size
6%
Vail Weaknesses
2003/04
95 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
expensive
24%
lift
17%
parking
16%
crowded
14%
price
9%
people
7%
walk
7%
lines
6%
Vail Weaknesses
2011/12
96 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
expensive
27%
parking
25%crowded
11%
lift
11%
long
10%
lines
8%
price
7%
Vail-Specific Importance Ratings Across Seasons
1997/98-2011/12
97 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Av
e
r
a
g
e
R
a
t
i
n
g
Snow Quality
Terrain Variety
Terrain Challenge
Weather
Value
Lifts
Accessibility
Scenery
Grooming
Resort Service
Lodging
Dining
On-mtn Food
Apres Ski
Off-hill Act.
Family Progs.
Terrain Parks
Vail Average Ratings
1997/98-2011/12
98 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Av
e
r
a
g
e
R
a
t
i
n
g
Terrain Variety
Terrain Challenge
Grooming
Snow Quality
Scenery
Lifts
Weather
Resort Service
Dining
Apres Ski
Lodging
On-mt. Food
Off-hill Act.
Accessibility
Family Prog.
Terrain Parks
Value
Average Importance Ratings by Average Resort Ratings
2001/02
99 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Snow QualityGrooming
Terrain Variety
Terrain Challenge
Value
Lifts
Resort Service WeatherAccessibility
On-mt. Food
Lodging
DiningApres Ski
Off-hill Act.
Family Prog.
Scenery
Terrain Parks
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Va
i
l
R
a
t
i
n
g
s
Importance Ratings
Average Importance Ratings by Average Resort Ratings
2011/12
100 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Va
i
l
R
a
t
i
n
g
s
Importance Ratings
Percentage of 9 & 10 Ratings by Age
2011/12
101 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
snow
grooming*
variety*
challenge*
value
lifts**
resort
service
weather
accessibili
ty*on-mt
foodlodging
dining
aprski
off-hill
act.
family
scenery
parks
satisfactio
n
dig. pres
character 34 and younger
35 and older
*significant at .05; ** significant at .01
Percentage of 9 & 10 Ratings by State
2011/12
102 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
snow
grooming
variety
challenge
value
lifts
resort service
weather
accessibility*
*
on-mt food*
lodging*
dining
aprski
off-hill act.
family
scenery
parks
satisfaction
dig. pres
character
CO resident
Out of State
* significant at .05; ** significant at .01
Lodging Metrics
103 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
41
%
58
%
70
%
53
%
52
%
52
%
52
%
51
%
50
%
50
%
40
%
47
%
36
%
46
%
33
%
44
%
33
%
42
%
33
%
42
%
30
%
41
%
29
%
40
%
27
%
39
%
22
%
36
%
20
%
33
%
17
%
31
%
15
%
27
%
38%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Summer 2013 total Winter 2013/14 total
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
R
a
t
e
Month of Occupancy
Occupancy Rate: Vail vs. Other Western Mountain Resorts
VAIL
Other individual resorts
Aggregate Total
Source: DestiMetrics.
Lodging Metrics
104 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
9.2% 7.9% 9.9%
13.8% 13.5% 13.3% 14.9% 12.6% 14.0%
60.7% 60.7% 58.6%
52.4% 54.4% 55.1% 55.8% 54.9%
57.5%
51.5% 52.8%
48.7%
38.6% 40.9% 41.9% 40.9% 42.2% 43.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Winter
2005/06
Winter
2006/07
Winter
2007/08
Winter
2008/09
Winter
2009/10
Winter
2010/11
Winter
2011/12
Winter
2012/13
Winter
2013/14
Winter Paid Occupancy Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate
Vail vs. Aggregate (ppt difference)
Vail
Industry
Source: DestiMetrics.
Lodging Metrics
105 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
3.0%
0.0%
5.7% 6.7% 7.7% 7.1% 8.6%
3.0%
39.4% 40.4%
38.0%
32.6%
36.1% 37.6%
41.1% 41.5%
36.3%
40.4%
32.3%
25.9%
28.4%
30.5%
32.5%
38.4%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Summer 2006 Summer 2007 Summer 2008 Summer 2009 Summer 2010 Summer 2011 Summer 2012 Summer 2013
Summer Paid Occupancy Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate
Vail vs. Aggregate (ppt difference)
Vail
Western Resort Aggregate
Source: DestiMetrics.
Note: Resorts included in
aggregate were expanded
in summer 2013.
Lodging Metrics
106 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
26
-
O
c
t
-
1
3
2-
N
o
v
-
1
3
9-
N
o
v
-
1
3
16
-
N
o
v
-
1
3
23
-
N
o
v
-
1
3
30
-
N
o
v
-
1
3
7-
D
e
c
-
1
3
14
-
D
e
c
-
1
3
21
-
D
e
c
-
1
3
28
-
D
e
c
-
1
3
4-
J
a
n
-
1
4
11
-
J
a
n
-
1
4
18
-
J
a
n
-
1
4
25
-
J
a
n
-
1
4
1-
F
e
b
-
1
4
8-
F
e
b
-
1
4
15
-
F
e
b
-
1
4
22
-
F
e
b
-
1
4
1-
M
a
r
-
1
4
8-
M
a
r
-
1
4
15
-
M
a
r
-
1
4
22
-
M
a
r
-
1
4
29
-
M
a
r
-
1
4
5-
A
p
r
-
1
4
12
-
A
p
r
-
1
4
19
-
A
p
r
-
1
4
26
-
A
p
r
-
1
4
Oc
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
R
a
t
e
Date
(Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
Winter 2013/14 Lodging Occupancy
Vail vs. Destimetrics Western Resort Aggregate
Vail vs. DestiMetrics Aggregate 2013/14
Vail 2013/14
DestiMetrics Aggregate 2013/14
Source: DestiMetrics.
Lodging Metrics
107 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$1
7
3
$4
4
3
$2
8
0
$4
9
6
$2
3
3
$4
5
7
$2
1
7
$4
1
5
$1
9
8
$3
7
9
$1
9
5
$3
2
6
$1
9
5
$2
9
4
$1
5
1
$2
7
3
$1
4
3
$2
7
2
$1
3
7
$2
5
9
$1
3
6
$2
5
6
$1
3
6
$2
2
7
$1
3
5
$2
0
6
$1
3
3
$1
8
5
$1
0
6
$1
8
4
$9
9
$1
5
4
$9
5
$1
5
4
$186
$331
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Summer 2013 total Winter 2013/14 total
AD
R
Month of Occupancy
ADR: Vail vs. Other Western Mountain Resorts
VAIL
Other individual resorts
Aggregate Total
Source: DestiMetrics.
Lodging Metrics
108 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$59 $75 $75 $92
$109 $112
$364 $363 $369
$402 $415
$443
$305
$287 $294
$311 $306
$331
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Winter 2008/09 Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 Winter 2011/12 Winter 2012/13 Winter 2013/14
Winter Average Daily Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate
Vail vs. Aggregate ($ difference)
Vail
Western Resort Aggregate
Source: DestiMetrics.
Lodging Metrics
109 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
-$4 -$9 -$4 -$1
$2
-$13
$155
$141
$153 $157
$169 $173
$158
$150 $158 $158 $166
$186
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Summer 2008 Summer 2009 Summer 2010 Summer 2011 Summer 2012 Summer 2013
Summer Average Daily Rate: Vail vs. Western Mountain Resort Aggregate
Vail vs. Aggregate ($ difference)
Vail
Western Resort Aggregate
Source: DestiMetrics.
Lodging Metrics - Summary
110 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Winter: Vail very strong
•Occupancy ranked #1 among measured western resorts
•Steady 12.6 – 14.9 ppt outperformance of average past 6 winters
•ADR ranked 3rd
•Vail ADR gap widening vs. average ($59 in 08/09, $112 in 13/14)
•Potential issues / opportunities:
•Pushing capacity on weekends? Limits potential additional upside?
•Value perceptions?
•Dividend of recent lodging upgrades sustainable?
•Summer: Vail moderately strong
•Occupancy ranked 5th; 3ppts above average
•ADR ranked 6th; $13 below average
•Potential issues / opportunities:
•Capacity relatively underutilized
•Continued opportunity to drive visitation (special events, etc.)
•Relatively weak Sundays/Mondays (opportunities for longer stays?)
•Capitalize on relatively lower ADRs?
TOV Sales Tax
111 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
16%
19%
26%
-34%
12%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Retail Lodging &
Property
Management
Food & Beverage Other Total (x3)
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
2
0
0
8
- 13
An
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l
S
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s
T
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C
o
l
l
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n
s
(
M
i
l
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n
s
)
TOV Sales Tax Collections by Sector, 1997-2013
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013 vs. 2008
Source: TOV, Annual Vail Business Review; RRC Associates.
TOV Sales Tax
112 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
17%
24%
26%
-28%
16%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Retail Lodging & Prop
Mgt
Food & Beverage Other TOTAL (x3)
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
1
3
/
1
4
v
s
.
0
7
0
8
Sa
l
e
s
T
a
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C
o
l
l
e
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s
(
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s
)
TOV Sales Tax Collections by Sector, Winter 1995/96-2013/14
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
13/14 vs. 07/08
Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr.
TOV Sales Tax
113 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
14%
33% 32%
-39%
11%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$0
$1
$2
$3
Retail Lodging &
Property
Management
Food & Beverage Other TOTAL (x3)
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
2
0
0
8
- 20
1
3
Sa
l
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s
T
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TOV Sales Tax Collections by Sector, Summer 1997-2013
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2013 vs. 2008
Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct.
TOV Sales Tax
114 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
33% 34%
24%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Retail Lodging & Property
Management
Food & Beverage Other
Sh
a
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e
o
f
A
n
n
u
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S
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T
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C
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c
t
i
o
n
s
TOV Share of Sales Tax Collections by Sector, 1997 - 2013
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates.
TOV Sales Tax
115 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
32%
21%
37%
40%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Retail Lodging &
Property
Management
Food &
Beverage
Other TOTALSh
a
r
e
o
f
A
n
n
u
a
l
S
a
l
e
s
C
o
l
l
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c
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o
n
s
O
c
c
u
r
r
i
n
g
i
n
S
u
m
m
e
r
TOV Share of Annual Sales Tax Collections Occurring in Summer: by
Sector, 1997-2013
Summer 1997 share of Nov 1-Oct 31
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Summer 2013 share of Nov 1-Oct 31
Source: TOV, Monthly Vail Business Reviews; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct.
TOV Sales Tax
116 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$1.43
$0.48
$1.16
$2.57
$0.25
$0.07 $0.06
$1.28
$0.00
0%
25%
46%
14%
10%
-33%
1%
26%
-54%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
$-
$1
$2
$3
Food Liquor Apparel Sport Jewelry Gift Gallery Other Home
Occupation
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
2
0
1
3
v
s
.
2
0
0
8
An
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T
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s
(
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l
i
o
n
s
)
TOV Retail Sales Tax Collections by Type, 1999-2013
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13 vs. 08
Source: TOV, Annual Vail Business Review; RRC Associates.
TOV Sales Tax
117 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
48%
21%
18%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vail Village Lionshead Cascade Village/East
Vail/Sandstone/West Vail
Out of town
Sh
a
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e
o
f
T
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A
n
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T
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x
a
b
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e
S
a
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e
s
TOV Neighborhood Share of Total Taxable Sales, 2007-2013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: TOV, Annual Vail Business Review; RRC Associates.
TOV Sales Tax - Summary
118 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•TOV taxable sales have exceeded pre-recession peak (+12% 2013 v. 2008)
•Summer 2013 vs. 2008: +11% overall
•Winter 2013/14 vs. 2007/08: +16% overall
•Lodging, F&B, retail have all grown strongly; “other” has declined
•Sectoral mix of sales activity has shifted over time
•Absolute growth in all sectors except other
•Relative growth of lodging & F&B, relative decline of retail & other
•Within retail, absolute growth in liquor, apparel, sport, other
•Flat trending for food stores and (recently) galleries
•Declining trend for jewelry and gift
•Locational mix of sales activity has shifted post-recession
•Increased share of sales in Vail Village
•Lionshead relatively flat
•Decreased share in other Vail, out of town
•Summer share of sales has edged up slightly (28.7% in 2006 -> 30.1% in
2013)
•Issues/opportunities:
•Ensuring vitality of retail; online & downvalley competition
•Vitality outside of Vail Village
•Summer gap vs. winter
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
119 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$540
$392
$109
$155 $159
$561
$687
$420
$112
12%
26%
15%
12% 11% 10%
5%
-5%
-13%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Vail Breckenridge Telluride Snowmass Avon Aspen Park City Steamboat Beaver Creek South Lake
Tahoe (thru
2012)
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
2
0
0
8
-13
An
n
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(
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)
Total Annual Taxable Sales, 2002-2013 2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% Chg 2008-13
Source: Respective towns, UT State Tax Commission & CA State Board of Equalization; RRC Associates.
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
120 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
16%
26%
15% 13% 12%
8% 6%
-4%
-13%
11%
39%
22%
15% 14%
8% 8%
-4% -5%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Growth in Taxable Sales Since Pre-Recession Peak
Winter and Summer
Source: Respective towns; RRC Associates; DestiMetrics. Summer=May-Oct; Winter=Nov-Apr. Park City based on quarterly reports (winter=Oct -Mar). Telluride
winter 13/14 extrapolated from Nov-Mar reports.
Growth in WINTER taxable sales
2007/08 - 2013/14
Growth in SUMMER taxable sales
2008 - 2013
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
121 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
48%
56% 56% 57%
64% 68% 70%
77% 79%
52%
44% 44% 43%
36% 32% 30%
23% 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Telluride Steamboat Aspen Avon Breckenridge Park City*Vail Beaver Creek Snowmass
Village
Ta
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M
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)
Share of Sales Tax Collections, Winter 2012/13 vs. Summer 2013
Percent of taxable sales in Summer 2013
Percent of taxable sales in Winter 2012/13
Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct; Winter=Nov-Apr.
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
122 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
30%
52%
36%
44% 44%
23% 21%
32%
43%
-0.3%
4.3%
2.3%
1.4%
0.9%
-0.2%
-0.6%
-1.5%
-2.3%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vail Telluride Breckenridge Steamboat Aspen Beaver Creek Snowmass
Village
Park City*Avon
Pe
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t
C
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n
S
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m
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S
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a
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,
2
0
0
4
-20
1
3
Sh
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O
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S
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r
Share of Annual Taxable Sales Occurring in Summer, 2004-2013
Summer 2004 share of Nov 1-Oct 31 2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012 Summer 2013 share of Nov 1-Oct 31
Ppt Change, 2004-2013
Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct.
* Based on quarterly reports. Summer=Apr-Sept.
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
123 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
33.7%
45.2%
41.2%
25.4%
22.7%
16.0% 14.3% 14.0%
5.0%
-0.2%
-7.0%
1.0%
1.8%
-2.4%
-4.1%
7.6%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vail Beaver Creek Snowmass Breckenridge Aspen Steamboat Telluride Avon
Pe
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n
t
P
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C
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2
0
0
3
-20
1
3
Sh
a
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A
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g
Percent of Total Taxable Sales Attributable to Lodging, 2003-2013
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
2011 2012
2013 Ppt change, 2003-13
Source: Respective towns; RRC Associates.
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
124 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
26
18
18
15
13
8
7
6
4
4
24
34
18
8
23
20
12
7
7
4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Jackson
Park City
Steamboat
VAIL
Aspen
Breckenridge
Telluride/Mountain Village
Teton Village
Beaver Creek
Snowmass
AAA-Rated Hotels and Restaurants
Total AAA-rated hotels
Total AAA-rated restaurants
Source: AAA Tourbooks (2012 editions). Includes establishments rated with 1 to 5 diamonds.
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set - Summary
125 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Growth since pre-recession peak has varied by resort, with Vail about average:
•TOV up 12% 2008-13. Lower than Breckenridge (26%) and Telluride (15%). Similar to
Snowmass (12%), Avon (11%), Aspen (10%). Greater than Steamboat
(-5%) and Beaver Creek (-13%).
•Vail’s tax collections have a strong winter focus: 70% winter/30% summer
•Most other resorts also tilt to winter, but not as strongly, e.g. Aspen 56/44 mix.
(Exceptions – BC, Snowmass are more winter-focused.)
•Likely reflects Vail’s very strong winter performance, comparatively softer summer
tourism, & relatively modest local resident economic base
•Seasonal shifts over time:
•Several resorts have gradually become more summer-focused over time: Telluride,
Breckenridge, Steamboat
•Others have maintained are relatively stable balance: Vail, Aspen, Park City,
Snowmass, BC
•Almost all resorts have seen increased summer share since 2008-10, but at least some
of that might be disproportionate recessionary impact on winter
•Vail’s tax base is somewhat more heavily focused on lodging than most other resorts
•Vail’s focus on lodging has also increased more than most other resorts over time
•Likely speaks to Vail’s tourism focused economy & upgrades to lodging bed base
Employment and Establishments
126 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
12% 15% 15% 19% 17%
54% 62% 59%
41%
61%
9% 11% 8%
17%
5%
6% 4% 4%
12%
5%
Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County
Base Industry Employment by County, 2012
Households Tourism Regional Center/National Services Traditional
Source: CO State Demographer, Economic Base Analysis (2012); RRC Associates.
29,391
10,625
16,651
14,536
5,003
-7.7%
-8.7%
-2.6%
-7.3%
-9.9%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County
Pe
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C
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e
,
2
0
0
8
-20
1
3
Re
s
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L
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F
o
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c
e
Residents in Labor Force by County, 2004-2013
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% Change, 2008-2013
Source: CO Department of Labor & Employment, Labor Force Employment & Unemployment; RRC Associates. Note: Labor force counts are not seasonally adjusted.
Employment and Establishments
127 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Employment and Establishments
128 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
6.6% 6.5%
5.8% 5.8%
6.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County
Un
e
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
R
a
t
e
Unemployment Rate by County, 2000-2013
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: CO Department of Labor & Employment, Labor Force Employment & Unemployment.
Recovery, 2010-2013: 45%
Recovery, 2010-2013: 28%
Recovery, 2010-2013: 21%
Recovery, 2010-2013: 64%
Recovery, 2010-2013: 38%
Employment and Establishments
129 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
775 780 787 774
668 637 625 629 612 598 578 565 565 551 557
1123
850
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
To
t
a
l
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
E
s
t
a
b
l
i
s
h
m
e
n
t
s
Total Number of Establishments, 1998-2012
Vail
Aspen
Breckenridge
Source: US Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Plans by NAICS; RRC Associates.
Employment and Establishments - Summary
130 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Base industry employment:
•Eagle, Pitkin, Summit, and San Miguel counties have similar
reliance on tourism for base industry jobs (54-62%); remainder split
between households, regional center/national services, and
traditional.
•Routt County also has a large, albeit smaller, tourism base (41%)
•Labor force: As of 2013, still below pre-recession peaks in all compared
resort counties
•Unemployment rate: Still elevated as of 2013 in all comparison
counties.
•Establishments: Long term decline in establishments in Vail, vs.
increase in Breckenridge, and decline since 2006 in Aspen. More
research needed to evaluate sectors with reduced establishments.
Real Estate
131 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$203
$380 $400
$277
$199
$259 $253 $259
$302
$217
$374
$128
$412
$175
$261 $236
$505
$596
$774
$405
$610
$434
$514 $495
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gr
o
s
s
R
e
a
l
E
s
t
a
t
e
S
a
l
e
s
(
M
i
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l
i
o
n
s
)
TOV Gross Real Estate Sales Volume, 2006-2013
Winter Summer
Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov (of prior year)-Apr. Summer=May-Oct.
Real Estate
132 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
381
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
To
t
a
l
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
R
e
a
l
E
s
t
a
t
e
T
r
a
n
s
a
c
t
i
o
n
s
w
i
t
h
i
n
V
a
i
l
TOV Total Number of Real Estate Transactions, 2006-2013
Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Annual total based on Nov 1 (of prior year)-Oct 31.
Recovery, 2009-2013: 79.7%
Real Estate
133 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$1.28
$1.77
$2.38
$1.98
$1.88
$1.74
$1.55
$1.33
$-
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Av
e
r
a
g
e
S
a
l
e
P
r
i
c
e
(
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Average Sale Price of TOV Real Estate, 2006-2013
Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Annual average based on Nov 1 (of prior year)-Oct 31.
Real Estate
134 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
95% 95% 96%
92%
85%
88%
89%
91%
95% 94%
97%
85%
90% 90% 90%
92%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Av
e
r
a
g
e
R
a
t
i
o
o
f
L
i
s
t
P
r
i
c
e
t
o
S
a
l
e
P
r
i
c
e
TOV Average Ratio of List Price to Sale Price, 2006-2013
Winter Summer
Source: TOV, Economic Indicators Summary: Summer 2013; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov (of prior year)-Apr. Summer=May-Oct.
Real Estate
135 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$486
$1,403
$1,238
$889
$504
$339
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Vail Eagle County Pitkin County Summit County Routt County San Miguel County
Gr
o
s
s
R
e
a
l
E
s
t
a
t
e
S
a
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e
s
(
M
i
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l
i
o
n
s
)
Annual Gross Real Estate Sales, 2004-2013
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Land Title Guarantee Company, Colorado Mountain Resorts Market Analysis (4th Quarter) & Eagle County Market Analysis; RRC Ass ociates.
Recovery 2009-2013: 56%
Recovery 2009-2013: 15%
Recovery 2009-2013: 39%
Recovery 2009-2013: 38%
Recovery 2009-2013: 30%
Recovery 2009-2013: 97%
Real Estate
136 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
354
1,766 1,702
1,908
1,278
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Vail Eagle Pitkin Summit Routt
To
t
a
l
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
T
r
a
n
s
a
c
t
i
o
n
s
Annual Number of Real Estate Transactions, 2006-2013
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Land Title Guarantee Company, Market Analysis for respective counties; RRC Associates.
Recovery 2009-2013: 88%
Recovery 2009-2013: 53%
Recovery 2009-2013: 20%
Recovery 2009-2013: 142%
Recovery 2009-2013: 62%
Real Estate
137 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
53% 49%
26%
43%
34%
15%
3%
40%
13%
3%
30%
45%
33%
43%
61%
Eagle Pitkin Summit Routt San Miguel
2013 Buyer Profile by County
International
Out of State (Domestic)
Front Range
Local
Source: Land Title Guarantee Company, Colorado Mountain Resorts Market Analysis (4th Quarter); RRC Associates.
Real Estate
138 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
35
%
7%
6%
6%
6%5%
4%
2%
2%2%
12
%
11
%
14
%
6%
6%
8%
5%
3%3%
3%
29
%
10
%
11
%
6%
3%
5%
1%2%
2%2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
R
e
s
p
o
n
d
i
n
g
Primary Residence Location of Second-Home Owners
By State/Country (Top 10)
Vail
Beaver Creek
Other Eagle County
Source:AssessorData from Eagle County (2011);RRC Associates
Real Estate - Summary
139 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SUMMARY: REAL ESTATE
•Sales trends in TOV:
•TOV seeing recovery in sales transactions, list:sales price ratios
•Average prices trending down. Total dollar volume erratic, up from
low point.
•Sales trends in resort counties:
•Gross dollar volumes well below peaks, but up from lows; choppy
post-recession.
•Sales transaction counts trending up from lows in most
communities.
•Second homeowner residence:
•Approximately 1/3rd of second homeowners are from Front Range –
similar to Breckenridge, moderately higher vs. Steamboat, and
much higher than Beaver Creek, Pitkin Co and San Miguel Co.
•Other 2nd homeowners are widely dispersed. In Vail, led by FL
(7%), TX (6%), CA (6%), NY (6%) and IL (5%).
Air Transport
140 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
E
n
p
l
a
n
e
m
e
n
t
s
(
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
Year
Denver International Airport Annual Enplanements, 2000-2013
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Annual Passenger Boarding and All-Cargo Data; RRC Associates.
134 128
73
3
21
116
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
EGE (Vail)ASE (Aspen)HDN (Steamboat)TEX (Telluride)GUC (Crested Butte)JAC (Jackson Hole)
Nu
m
b
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r
o
f
E
n
p
l
a
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m
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n
t
s
(
T
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s
a
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s
)
Resort Airports Domestic Enplanements, Winter 2002/03-2013/14
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Passengers by Month Data; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr.
Air Transport
141 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
Air Transport
142 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
30
80
17
2 9
186
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
EGE (Vail)ASE (Aspen)HDN (Steamboat)TEX (Telluride)GUC (Crested Butte)JAC (Jackson Hole)
Nu
m
b
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r
o
f
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m
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(
T
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s
)
Resort Airports Domestic Enplanements, Summer 2003-2013
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Passengers by Month Data; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct.
Air Transport - Summary
143 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•DIA:
•Strong long-term growth in enplanements; great asset for Vail
•Ability to retain 3 airline hubs & competitive fares?
•Eagle Airport:
•Significant declines in winter enplanements since peak (-25% 06/07 –
12/13).
•Summer volume (30K enplanements 2013) much lower than winter
(137K). Down -37% from 2008.
•Other mountain resort airports:
•Hayden, Telluride, and Gunnison have experienced declines similar to
EGE.
•Jackson and Aspen have been more resilient re: enplanements.
•Jackson and Sun Valley becoming increasingly aggressive in
expanding air service to new communities.
Highway Traffic
144 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
3.9%
-2.1%
4.4%
-1.7%
-6.3%
7.3%
-5.8%
14.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
I-70 Eisenhower
Tunnel
I-70 Vail Pass I-70 Dowd
Junction
I-70 Glenwood
Canyon
Hwy 82
Snowmass
Hwy 9
Breckenridge
US 40
Steamboat
I-80 Parley's
Canyon (UT)
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
20
0
7
/
0
8
-20
1
3
/
1
4
Av
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a
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e
D
a
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l
y
T
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a
f
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(
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s
)
Average Daily Highway Traffic, Winter 2004/05-2013/14
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
2012/13 2013/14 % Change, 2007/08-2013/14
Source: CDOT, Monthly Traffic Data & UDOT, Monthly Traffic Bulletins; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr.
Highway Traffic
145 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
1.6%
-2.7%
-2.3%
-2.2%
-9.9%
5.5%
-7.3%
7.3%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
I-70 Eisenhower
Tunnel
I-70 Vail Pass I-70 Dowd
Junction
I-70 Glenwood
Canyon
Hwy 82
Snowmass
Hwy 9
Breckenridge
US 40
Steamboat
I-80 Parley's
Canyon (UT)
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
20
0
8
-20
1
3
Av
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D
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T
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(
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)
Average Daily Highway Traffic, Summer 2004-2013
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008-13 % Change
Source: CDOT, Monthly Traffic Data & UDOT, Monthly Traffic Bulletins; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct.
Highway Traffic
146 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
101%
120%
107%
137%
109%
93%
132%
111%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
I-70 Eisenhower
Tunnel
I-70 Vail Pass I-70 Dowd
Junction
I-70 Glenwood
Canyon
Hwy 82
Snowmass
Hwy 9
Breckenridge
US 40
Steamboat
I-80 Parley's
Canyon (UT)
Ra
t
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f
S
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W
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)
Average Daily Highway Traffic, Summer 2013 vs. Winter 2013/14
Summer 2013
Winter 2013/14
Ratio of summer to winter
Source: CDOT, Monthly Traffic Data & UDOT, Monthly Traffic Bulletins; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct, Winter=Nov-Apr.
Highway Traffic
147 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
12
A
M
1A
M
2A
M
3A
M
4A
M
5A
M
6A
M
7A
M
8A
M
9A
M
10
A
M
11
A
M
12
P
M
1P
M
2P
M
3P
M
4P
M
5P
M
6P
M
7P
M
8P
M
9P
M
10
P
M
11
P
M
Saturday
Av
e
r
a
g
e
H
o
u
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l
y
T
r
a
f
f
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c
Average Westbound Saturday Winter Traffic, I-70 at Eisenhower Tunnel
2013/14
1996/97
2003/04
Source: CDOT, Hourly Traffic Data; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr.
Highway Traffic
148 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
12
A
M
1A
M
2A
M
3A
M
4A
M
5A
M
6A
M
7A
M
8A
M
9A
M
10
A
M
11
A
M
12
P
M
1P
M
2P
M
3P
M
4P
M
5P
M
6P
M
7P
M
8P
M
9P
M
10
P
M
11
P
M
Sunday
Av
e
r
a
g
e
H
o
u
r
l
y
T
r
a
f
f
i
c
Average Eastbound Sunday Winter Traffic, I-70 at Eisenhower Tunnel
2013/14
1996/97
2003/04
Source: CDOT, Hourly Traffic Data; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr.
Highway Traffic - Summary
149 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Growth trends:
•Traffic volumes on several key tourism highways have had little net
change over past 10 years
•Within that time, traffic declined in recent recession, with varying
degrees of recovery since then
•Note that factors other than tourism can impact traffic - e.g. general
economic conditions, population growth, demand suppression due
to congestion, etc.
•Seasonal balance:
•Average daily traffic is typically higher in summer than winter –
likely reflective of differing visitor profile & travel patterns in each
season
•Time of day (Eisenhower):
•Saturday westbound peak have extended later
•Sunday eastbound peak has moved much earlier
•Above trends may reflect congestion avoidance strategies, changes
in skiing patterns with season passes
SWOT Analysis
THREATS (CHALLENGES)
150 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Complacency – doing little to address the long term opportunities and
ignoring trends.
•Divisions concerning which future(s) should be pursued – For example, by
age cohorts, year round/part time residents, Vail Resorts versus the Town,
etc.
•Climate change
•Growth of passes in other regions changing visitation patterns and creating
new loyalties
•Degrading of experience and brand with deteriorating quality or crowded
conditions
SWOT Analysis
THREATS (CHALLENGES)
151 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Summer – more competition from multiple sources
•Loss of the baby boomers without a message/product and direction for the
next generation
•Loss or degradation of the local environment through gradual decline or a
big event – Gore Creek, fire, more vegetation kill, population growth,
increased peaking of demand, etc.
•I-70 – traffic, noise, trucks, impact on character of Town (in other words, the
highway presents multiple challenges that together represent ongoing
threats).
•Travel industry diversification – new behaviors and choices
SWOT Analysis
OPPORTUNITIES
152 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•2015 World Alpine Championships, US Pro Challenge, Burton US Open
Snowboarding Championships, other events that continue to put Vail on the
National and World Stage
•Summer economic growth
•Climate change (relative to competition)
•New event(s)
•Enhance parking experience – (through additional facilities, management
and pricing)
•While available land is limited, there exists the potential to address
competitive opportunities including changing demographics, parking and
various aspects of Vail’s identity and brand with physical changes and
improvements. Could include West Vail, EverVail, Frontage Road, Timber
Ridge, underpass(es), etc.
OPPORTUNITIES
153 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Expand brand to embrace an affluent younger clientele – may not be for
everyone, but for a segment that is up and coming
•Continued population growth in Colorado; Vail will get its fair share.
•DIA, a major airport centrally located
•Expanded international tourism as Denver grows and the world comes to
Colorado and potentially the mountains.
•Enhanced flight offerings at Eagle County Regional Airport – international
terminal
•I-70 enhancements and changes from tolling, truck restrictions, etc.
•Vail’s retail mix - quality and quantity
SWOT Analysis
154
•The Vail Brand
•Vail Mountain and Back Bowls
•New lodging properties and relatively high quality bed base
•Signature events (Bravo, Mountain Games, etc.) and the overall program of
events including the particular success of Farmers Market
•Vail Valley Medical Center/Steadman Hawkins reputation and presence
•Proximity to Denver and Front Range
•Reputation on Front Range
•The Epic Pass and the Vail Resorts brand and initiatives, and the Vail
Resorts name and reach
STRENGTHS
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
155
•Vail Resorts capital improvements – winter and summer
•The Community Survey indicates that Vail is in “good shape” and that there
are no glaring deficiencies. High ratings of service delivery and positive
comments about management and fiscal discipline
•The economic strength of second homeowners, along with their geographic
origins, give Vail broad reach in multiple regions. This is further expanded by
Beaver Creek.
•International Visibility (note that measuring international reputation would
require testing)
STRENGTHS
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
156
•Perception of value and the actuality of relatively higher costs than most
competing resorts.
•Limited land for expansion and for major new facilities
•Lack of developed space at the base of the mountain for events and
concerts. (The limitations of Gold Peak have been identified.) Long term, is
there an opportunity to mitigate some of the physical limitations?
•No true conference facility and limited improved concert and outdoor
gathering spaces
WEAKNESSES
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
157
•Workforce and affordable housing – vulnerability to down-valley competition
and to increased costs of labor as overall economy improves
•The parking experience, and issues of price, and supply at certain times
•I-70 – both its presence bisecting the Town, and problems of access at peak
times
•The Vail brand may be a turnoff for some, especially the younger set
(requires testing to confirm or reject)
•Vulnerability to climate change
WEAKNESSES
Town of Vail | 07/15/14
SWOT Analysis
Questions for Council
PART 1
158 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•From this SWOT list, what stands out as correct and what rings
incorrect? Is this the right list? What’s missing in the opinion of
Council?
•If the SWOT analysis seems incorrect, is there additional information
that can be acquired to further understand the identified trend or
direction? Or is it that you simply don’t agree, that you don’t think the
particular theme or idea is important for Vail?
•Is there support for exploring ideas about potential physical changes
(EverVail, West Vail, intercept parking, trails, the Frontage Road, etc.)
as a part of positioning Vail for long-term changes in demography,
technology, consumer habits, the competitive environment, etc.?
Questions for Council
PART 2
159 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
•Is there support for broadening the Vail economy by pursuing additional
economic initiatives such as health care, quality of life exploration, or Lone
Eagle opportunities? If yes, what additional information or direction is
needed to galvanize support and leadership toward these additional (beyond
tourism) alternative economic futures beyond tourism?
•Is there a next “big idea” or is Vail’s future to continue to take smaller but
very deliberate steps to perform at the very highest levels in the identified
industries?
•What are the next steps in this process?
a)Work session in August?
b)RRC collects further secondary information to address identified gaps?
c)Additional primary research?
d)Other:
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
161 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$372
$313
$243 $229
$52
$466
$121
$85 $88
39%
38%
44%
23%
18%
62%
44%
-2%
36%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Vail Aspen Breckenridge Steamboat Telluride Park City*Snowmass
Village
Beaver Creek Avon
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
2
0
0
3
/
0
4
-20
1
2
/
1
3
Ta
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a
b
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S
a
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s
)
Total Winter Taxable Sales, 2003/04-2012/13
2003/04 2004/05
2005/06 2006/07
2007/08 2008/09
2009/10 2010/11
2011/12 2012/13
% Change, 2003/04-2012/13
Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Winter=Nov-Apr.
* Based on quarterly reports. Winter=Oct-Mar.
Sales Tax: Vail vs. Competitive Set
162 Town of Vail | 07/15/14
$156
$242
$139
$183
$56
$224
$33
$25
$67
40%
48%
67%
40%
46%
67% 61%
6%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Vail Aspen Breckenridge Steamboat Telluride Park City*Snowmass
Village
Beaver Creek Avon
Pe
r
c
e
n
t
C
h
a
n
g
e
,
2
0
0
3
-20
1
3
Ta
x
a
b
l
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S
a
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s
(
M
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s
)
Total Summer Taxable Sales, 2003-2013
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
2011 2012
2013 % Change, 2003-2013
Source: Respective towns & CO Department of Revenue; RRC Associates. Summer=May-Oct.
* Based on quarterly reports. Summer=Apr-Sept.