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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2014-07-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Jul 31, 2014 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,406 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 60.9% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2014/15 2013/14 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % 62.2% 57.3% 8.6% 2.9% $215 $200 7.6% 5.8% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 48.5% 43.2% 12.3% 4.9% $216 $202 7.2% 6.2% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, September to January: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 23.6% 23.2% 2.0% 1.9% $168 $161 4.4% 1.6% 8.0% 9.6% -16.3% 7.4% $139 $127 9.7% -3.3% 7.8% 8.3% -5.4% -8.1% $149 $133 11.6% 10.7% 16.3% 16.9% -3.4% 5.1% $603 $505 19.4% 12.8% 37.6% 36.5% 9.5% -4.0% $327 $304 7.6% 9.4% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jul. 31, 2014 vs. Previous Year 6.1% 6.5% -6.5% 1.3% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2014 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (July, 2014) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (July, 2013) for all arrival dates is down by (-6.5%) Booking Pace (July) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-3.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (19.4%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are up (9.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (7.6%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are down (-16.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (9.7%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-5.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (11.6%). Occupancy November ADR November Occupancy Rates for next month (August, 2014) are up (12.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (7.2%). Occupancy (August) : ADR (August) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (2.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.4%). Occupancy September ADR September DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (July, 2014) were up (8.6%) compared to the same period last year (July, 2013) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (7.6%). Occupancy (July) : ADR (July) : MARKET OVERVIEW: The month of July further supported our prior two months’ assessments of increasing economic stability and growth. Employers continued to add jobs in significant numbers, with 209,000 jobs added during July, making it the sixth consecutive month with over 200,000 jobs created. Consumer confidence hit the 90 point threshold and is now at its highest since September 2007 and, though financial markets declined in July, the selloffs helped release some of the pent-up tension of being sharply oversold and 21 months overdue for a major correction. Though summer seems to need no help in recent years, the positive economic mood is reflected in the destination data. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for June is up 3.4 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 5.4 percent for the month. Bookings taken in July for arrival in July was down -1.5 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 8.6 percent in June versus 2013, with an increase in rate of 7.6 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (February - July) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2013 increasing by 2.4 percent while rate also increased by 6.9 percent. Bookings taken in July for arrival in July were up 15.4 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: Looking ahead continues to get easier as we move our way out of the recession towards sustained and self-driven economic growth. At this point in the recovery, the employment engine appears to have established a pattern that we don’t except to see declining any time soon. Likewise, consumer confidence should continue its upward trend as the labor market gains strength. However, there is a significant concern around earnings, particularly at the middle class, where payrolls have failed to keep up with the increases in cost of living since the recessions started in 2008, resulting in a drop in median household earnings & net worth across the country. Add in the current geopolitical climate, which has been deteriorating for months, and there are considerations that warrant caution. But these cautions are, for the most part, not visible to the consumer, which is clear in the bookings ahead. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (August – January) is up 3.9 percent, while rate is also up 6.3 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during July for arrival July - December are up 1.9 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Locally, Vail on-the-books Occupancy for August is up 12.3 percent with an increase in rate of 7.2 percent compared to 2013. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in two of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by September (2.0 percent) and January (9.5 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (August - January) in aggregate has increased 4.2 percent while rate has also increased by 10.1 percent. Bookings taken in July for arrival July through December is down -6.5 percent.