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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-02-28 (2)Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Feb 28, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,688 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 68.0% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2014/15 2013/14 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 75.6% 76.2% -0.8% 6.2% $549 $499 10.1% 7.2% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 69.5% 66.9% 3.9% 0.7% $532 $495 7.6% 4.3% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, April to August: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 21.3% 21.0% 1.4% 17.0% $324 $248 30.9% 18.7% 8.5% 9.3% -9.0% 9.2% $134 $132 1.3% 2.8% 23.7% 19.6% 21.4% 4.7% $179 $167 6.7% 3.5% 21.3% 21.3% 0.3% 4.3% $222 $212 4.6% 5.5% 38.4% 37.9% 9.8% 4.0% $405 $372 15.5% 4.9% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Feb. 28, 2015 vs. Previous Year 4.8% 6.0% -19.2% -11.7% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (February, 2015) were down (-0.8%) compared to the same period last year (February, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was up (10.1%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : Occupancy Rates for next month (March, 2015) are up (3.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (7.6%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are up (1.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (30.9%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are down (-9.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (1.3%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (21.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (6.7%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (0.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.6%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (9.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (15.5%). Occupancy August ADR August Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (February, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (February, 2014) for all arrival dates is down by (-19.2%) Booking Pace (February) : MARKET OVERVIEW : Economic conditions remain robust and continue to show signs of being self-sustaining after February’s economic performance. Financial markets recovered their January losses and set new all-time records, while employers added 290,000 new jobs to payrolls, albeit without significant increases in wages. Though consumer confidence declined during the month, the consumer marketplace remains stronger than at any time since 2007 and this decline looks more like a continuation of a long-established pattern. Ongoing drought conditions in the Far West continued in February, raising alarms about the remainder of the season, while intermittent snow in the Rockies created some mid-season buzz, but was not enough to stave off declines in booking pace. However, overall the season remains ahead of last year despite the challenges. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for February is up 6.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 7.2 percent for the month. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February was down -29.1 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -0.8 percent in February versus 2014, with an increase in rate of 10.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (September - February) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2013/14 increasing by 0.2 percent while rate also increased by 9.5 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February were down -32.0 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: The positive economic conditions are expected to continue for the foreseeable future as employers sustain their strong job creation, which will support further increases in consumer confidence and financial market growth. We will hope for wages to begin to increase in earnest to help complete the recovery puzzle. However, consumers should anticipate a speed-bump when the Federal Reserve inevitably increases interest rates in response to the economic strength, which will temporarily slow or reverse financial markets for a time and will likely impact consumer confidence and job creation, though to a lesser extent, and with little significant impact on the travel industry. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (March – August) is up 4.3 percent, while rate is also up 4.5 percent from the same per iod last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during February for arrival February – July are down -11.7 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for March is up 3.9 percent with an increase in rate of 7.6 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in four of the five months while rates are up in in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by June (21.4 percent) and August (9.8 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (March - August) in aggregate has increased 4.2 percent while rate has also increased by 8.7 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival February through July is down -19.2 percent.