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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-03-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Mar 31, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,428 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 61.4% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2014/15 2013/14 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 75.9% 73.1% 3.8% -0.1% $541 $493 9.8% 4.4% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 28.5% 29.8% -4.3% 10.5% $314 $244 28.9% 15.3% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, May to September: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 10.6% 10.9% -2.6% 17.1% $136 $135 0.8% 0.2% 27.8% 24.7% 12.5% 4.2% $179 $165 8.4% 1.6% 26.5% 26.8% -1.0% 7.0% $227 $216 5.3% 5.6% 18.5% 18.6% -0.5% 2.8% $232 $196 18.2% 4.3% 38.7% 38.2% 30.2% 12.7% $413 $376 10.2% 6.4% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Mar. 31, 2015 vs. Previous Year 4.9% 5.5% -10.0% 1.4% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (March, 2015) were up (3.8%) compared to the same period last year (March, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (9.8%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : Occupancy Rates for next month (April, 2015) are down (-4.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (28.9%). Occupancy (April) : ADR (April) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are down (-2.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (0.8%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (12.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.4%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are down (-1.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (5.3%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are down (-0.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (18.2%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (30.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (10.2%). Occupancy September ADR September Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (March, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (March, 2014) for all arrival dates is down by (-10.0%) Booking Pace (March) : MARKET OVERVIEW : Economic conditions softened somewhat during March, with stock markets declining and employers slowing the pace of job creation, even as consumer confidence increased against the economic tide. With Dow Jones losing ground for only the fourth month in the past year, employers retreated from 200,000+ job creation since February 2014 to just 129,000 this month. This softening is a reaction to an incredibly strong US dollar and slower consumer spending. With ongoing severe drought in the Far West and a mediocre – but not outstanding – snow season through much of the industry, we would expect this winter to be showing signs of declined from last season, but once again snowsport enthusiasts have proven their commitment to the sport at the industry level. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for March is down -0.1 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 4.4 percent for the month. Bookings taken in March for arrival in March was down -10.4 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 3.8 percent in March versus 2014, with an increase in rate of 9.8 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (October - March) occupancy (not shown) was up compared to 2013/14 increasing by 1.0 percent while rate also increased by 9.7 percent. Bookings taken in March for arrival in March were up 3.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: There are several economic factors that may slow the pace of recovery over the coming months and much of it is a result of the success of the US recovery. A growing disparity between the strong US dollar and currencies of major trading partners is hurting exports and impacting the trade economy. And though consumers are feeling more confident recently, stagnant middle-class wage growth is slowing consumer spending – the primary wheel in the economy. Despite these conditions, we know that travel exports are thriving despite disparate exchange rates and our own clientele seems to be staying within the country for the destination travel, at least for now. This strength is reflected as we look forward to the drive season around the corner. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (April - September) is up 7.6 percent, while rate is also up 5.2 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during March for arrival March – August are up 1.4 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for April is down -4.3 percent with an increase in rate of 28.9 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in two of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by June (12.5 percent) and September (30.2 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (April - September) in aggregate has increased 3.2 percent while rate has also increased by 13.2 percent. Bookings taken in March for arrival March through August is down -10.0 percent.