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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-04-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of Apr 30, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,509 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 63.4% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2014/15 2013/14 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 33.6%37.1%-9.5%3.6% $292 $233 25.7%11.6% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 15.6%15.1%3.1%13.0% $140 $138 1.1%3.0% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, June to October: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 35.1%31.3%12.0%5.2% $180 $173 3.9%4.0% 33.2%33.2%0.1%6.9% $224 $215 4.3%5.6% 22.8%23.4%-2.4%4.1% $229 $203 12.7%2.7% 16.5%13.7%20.2%12.9% $177 $164 7.5%7.6% 39.4%39.0%-26.2%35.1% $411 $375 20.2%10.7% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Apr. 30, 2015 vs. Previous Year 5.1%5.3%-4.4%4.1% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information:678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (April, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (April, 2014) for all arrival dates is down by (-4.4%)Booking Pace (April) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (20.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (7.5%). Occupancy September ADR September On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are down (-26.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (20.2%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (0.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.3%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are down (-2.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (12.7%). Occupancy August ADR August Occupancy Rates for next month (May, 2015) are up (3.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (1.1%). Occupancy (May) : ADR (May) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (12.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (3.9%). Occupancy June ADR June DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (April, 2015) were down (-9.5%) compared to the same period last year (April, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was up (25.7%). Occupancy (April) : ADR (April) : MARKET OVERVIEW: The winter 2014/15 ski season comes to a close with a modest economic rebound in April, notably led by the addition of 223 ,000 new jobs to company payrolls during the month. This follows a sharp slowdown in job creation in March that has helped to drive this month’s consumer confidence decline to 95.2 p oints, but is allowing us to view the March bump as a speedbump rather than a roadblock. Financial markets played it relatively safe in April, adding just 0.3 percent to their value but importantly addi ng a sense of renewed optimism after March’s letdown. Overall, the economy performed extremely well this winter and lent support to a season of average and sub-average snowfall in many ski destinations.Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for April is up 3.6 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 11.6 percent for the month. Bookings taken in A pril for arrival in April were down -17.4 percent (not shown).Locally, Vail Occupancy was down 9.5 percent in April versus 2014, with an increase in rate of 25.7 percent. Vail's aggregate historic si x month (November -April) occupancy (not shown) had no change compared to 2013/14 at 0.0 percent while rate increased by 11.0 percent. Bookings taken in April for arrival in April were down 30.9 per cent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:Summer 2015 may stand out as the first time in years that we enter a drive season with mostly positive economic pieces in pla ce.Financial markets continue their upward march, though are doing so in a more restrained manner than last year, job creation remains above 200,000 per month and consumers ar e feeling more confident, buoyed by lower fuel prices and better earnings. Ironically, the biggest threat to the economy in the coming months is its success, as the Federal Reserve Bank prepares to mo ve interest rates upward as the recovery is sustained, something that will at the very least create drama on Wall St. Whether negativity trickles to the destination travel market is unclear, but based on the resilience of our customers over the past 3 record-setting summers, it seems unlikely. That consumer strength in the mountain travel market is clearly evident in summer bookings to -date. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (May -October) is up 8.8 percent, while rate is also up 4.2 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during April for arrival April -September are up 4.1 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for May is up 3.1 percent with an increase in rate of 1.1 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in three of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by June (12.0 percent) and September (20.2 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (May -October) in aggregate has increased 4.2 percent while rate has increased by 6.0 percent. Bookings taken in April for arrivals April through September is down 4.4 percent.