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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary___Industry_Wide_2015-06-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of June 30, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,505 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 63.4% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2014/15 2013/14 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 50.0% 48.3% 3.6% 4.8% $186 $174 7.0% 3.2% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 53.5% 51.9% 3.1% 6.2% $237 $221 6.8% 7.1% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, August to December: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 35.8% 36.4% -1.5% 1.0% $231 $214 7.8% 5.8% 22.0% 18.8% 17.2% 14.1% $181 $162 11.6% 9.4% 5.4% 6.6% -18.6% 31.8% $165 $137 20.3% 9.7% 3.3% 6.2% -46.1% 9.3% $229 $138 65.3% 7.4% 38.6% 38.1% 11.8% 11.8% $386 $349 10.2% 11.7% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jun. 30, 2015 vs. Previous Year 5.5% 5.6% -2.6% 3.1% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (June, 2015) were up (3.6%) compared to the same period last year (June, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (7.0%). Occupancy (June) : ADR (June) : Occupancy Rates for next month (July, 2015) are up (3.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (6.8%). Occupancy (July) : ADR (July) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are down (-1.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (7.8%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (17.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (11.6%). Occupancy September ADR September On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are down (-18.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (20.3%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-46.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (65.3%). Occupancy November ADR November On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are up (11.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (10.2%). Occupancy December ADR December Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (June, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (June, 2014) for all arrival dates is down by (-2.6%) Booking Pace (June) : MARKET OVERVIEW : While the domestic summer travel season is off to a healthy start, the domestic economy is only just keeping up as outside in fluences add pressure to our domestic situation. Financial markets, feeling the pressure of Greek Eurozone problems and failing exchanges in China, went for a wild ride in June, varying by 400 points +/- several times during the month and finishing well down from May’s close. Also, though employers continue to show strong support for the domestic economy, adding 223,000 jobs during the month, the question of workforce is now front-and-center as the unemployment rate continues to drop while we experience 40-year lows in workforce participation, indicating a very large number of long-term unemployed. But when we look at mountain destination travel, little of this is evident. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for June was up 4.8 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was up 3.2 percent for the month. Bookings taken in June for arrival in June were up 8.2 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 3.6 percent in June versus 2014, with an increase in rate of 7.0 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (January - June) occupancy (not shown) had increased slightly at 0.5 percent compared to 2013/14 while rate increased by 10.2 percent. Bookings taken in June for arrival in June were down 15.9 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: Economically, the road ahead is a little bit bumpy for the first time in several months. Though consumer confidence is back above 100 points and unemployment is down to 5.3 percent, we cannot help but be concerned about those items discussed in MARKET OVERVIEW section above. Certainly a Greek exit from the Eurozone would negatively impact domestic stock markets, as would a continuation of the extreme instability in the Chinese stock markets. But there’s also a potential direct impact on travel: both of these events are likely to decrease the value of several global currencies versus the U.S. dollar. The potential negative impact of such a global decline is a loss of international consumer markets as US residents consider affordable overseas travel and international visitors remain at home due to the strong US dollar. Whether or not that same impact would be felt in the mountain travel industry specifically is unclear, but for now our consumer base remains loyal and the data are strong. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months July - December) is up 8.4 percent, while rate is also up 7.3 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during June for arrival June - November are up 3.1 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the- books for July is up 3.1 percent with an increase in rate of 6.8 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in three of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gainsin September are holding a lead (17.2 percent) and is then followed by December (11.8 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (July - December) in aggregate has increased 2.0 percent while rate has increased by 11.0 percent. Bookings taken in June for arrivals June through Noevember is down 2.6 percent.