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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-07-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of July 31, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,424 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 61.3% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 63.3% 60.8% 4.1% 7.9% $230 $221 4.1% 5.5% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 48.9% 48.8% 0.2% 1.6% $228 $217 5.2% 4.0% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, September to January: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 28.0% 23.8% 17.8% 16.1% $184 $169 9.2% 8.8% 7.7% 8.1% -4.7% 32.4% $163 $139 17.0% 8.0% 6.3% 7.9% -20.4% 20.2% $196 $149 32.0% 3.8% 16.5% 16.4% 0.8% 10.1% $674 $605 11.3% 10.7% 38.0% 37.6% 3.4% 8.5% $360 $329 8.6% 1.9% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jul. 31, 2015 vs. Previous Year 6.3% 5.9% 7.6% 11.0% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (July, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (July, 2014) for all arrival dates is up by (7.6%) Booking Pace (July) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are up (0.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (11.3%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are up (3.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.6%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are down (-4.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (17.0%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-20.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (32.0%). Occupancy November ADR November Occupancy Rates for next month (August, 2015) are up (0.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (5.2%). Occupancy (August) : ADR (August) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (17.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.2%). Occupancy September ADR September DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (July, 2015) were up (4.1%) compared to the same period last year (July, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (4.1%). Occupancy (July) : ADR (July) : MARKET OVERVIEW : We are officially halfway through the summer season, and in many states school will restart at the beginning of August, while others wait for September. In the meantime, financial markets in July were essentially flat, with the Dow Jones gaining less than one percent while investors watched efforts to stabilize the Greece and Chinese marketplaces with mixed results and many outlying concerns. Employers added 215,000 jobs during the month, continuing the very strong job creation trend begun at the beginning of 2014, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3%, however static household earnings continued to be a major concern. All of these factors combined for a sharp decline in consumer confidence, down from 99.8 points to 90.9 points, its lowest level since September 2014. Looking back at July in the mountain travel industry, none of this turmoil is apparent. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for July was up 7.9 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was up 5.5 percent for the month. Bookings taken in July for arrival in July were up 16.9 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 4.1 percent in July versus 2014, while rate also increased 4.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (February - July) occupancy (not shown) had increased slightly at 0.4 percent compared to 2014 while rate increased by 5.2 percent. Bookings taken in July for arrival in July was up 9.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: Last month we described the economic road ahead as a “little bit bumpy” and this appears to be the case, driven mostly by the irony of the economic recovery, where the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates is slowing the Dow Jones, yet the slowdown is the result of positive economic news. Ulti mately, interest rate hikes are the necessary next steps to recovery, and markets and consumers alike will respond positively and move forward, though a blip should be expected. Internationally, the Greek issue is heading towards resolution, but the process is measured in years not weeks, and the impact on the Euro and international exchange rates & tourism will remain for some time. Whether or not consumer will recognize these issues as positives and drive confidence back above the 100 point mark will remain to be seen. In the meantime, the mountain travel industry has a summer season to complete, and all indications are that we’re on-track for success. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (August - January) is up 1.6 percent, while rate is also up 4.0 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during July for arrival July – December are up 11.0 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for August is up slightly at 0.2 percent with an increase in rate of 5.2 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in three of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains in September are holding a lead (17.8 percent) and is then followed by January (3.4 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (August - January) in aggregate has increased 2.8 percent while rate has increased by 8.9 percent. Bookings taken in July for arrivals in July through December is up 7.6 percent.