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Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-08-31
Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of August 31, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,424 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 61.3% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 55.6% 57.8% -3.8% 0.0% $225 $214 5.1% 3.0% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 37.9% 32.3% 17.4% 17.5% $186 $172 8.0% 7.5% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, October to February: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 12.9% 13.1% -1.6% 31.8% $159 $143 11.4% 7.8% 8.9% 10.4% -15.1% 12.4% $196 $156 25.5% 2.0% 22.1% 23.1% -4.1% 8.0% $663 $596 11.2% 7.7% 32.7% 34.0% -3.7% 4.7% $514 $469 9.7% 2.5% 37.3% 38.0% -21.2% -3.2% $336 $309 17.8% 6.4% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Aug. 31, 2015 vs. Previous Year 6.0% 6.9% -12.7% 5.7% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (August, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (August, 2014) for all arrival dates is down by (-12.7%) Booking Pace (August): On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-3.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (9.7%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-21.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (17.8%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-15.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (25.5%). Occupancy November ADR November On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-4.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (11.2%). Occupancy December ADR December Occupancy Rates for next month (September, 2015) are up (17.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (8.0%). Occupancy (September) : ADR (September) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are down (-1.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (11.4%). Occupancy October ADR October DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (August, 2015) were down (-3.8%) compared to the same period last year (August, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was up (5.1%). Occupancy (August) : ADR (August) : MARKET OVERVIEW : With August now in the books, the summer season is in the early stages of wind-down, though not without plenty of drama in the greater economy. Faltering markets in China led global markets into a massive selloff, including Wall Street, where declines were measured in the hundreds of points for several days. Not until China took firm economic action did the environment stabilize, though the losses in domestic markets have not been recovered. Employers, meanwhile, added moderately fewer jobs in August than in recent months, but were paying better, which is a slowly emerging trend and continues to be a hot topic for economists. But consumers were ready and willing, citing better earnings and greater faith in the short- and long-term economy and raising confidence back above the 100 point mark. This consumer glow was reflected in the mountain travel business in August. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for August ended up even versus the same time last year, while rate was up 3.0 percent for the month. Bookings taken in August for arrival in August were down -5.7 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was down-3.8 percent in August versus 2014, while rate increased 5.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (March August) occupancy (not shown) is even at 0.0 percent compared to 2014 while rate increased by 9.4 percent. Bookings taken in August for arrival in August was down -26.9 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: While Chinese market policies continue to be tested, and reflected on global and US markets, for the time being things have settled down, but only just in time to be tossed back into turmoil as the Federal Reserve Bank prepares to make a decision on interest rates on September 17th. While an increase in interest rates will indicate strong confidence in the economy (and be good news overall) it is likely to create some selling on Wall Street and may have a negative impact on both job creation and consumerism. A significant drop in Consumer Confidence at this time of year may slow not only holiday spending, but destination travel as well. We’ll be watching carefully and hope that our resilient mountain traveler, who has continued to show dedication to recreation over the past few years, remains positive and willing to travel. In the meantime, the early look ahead is a positive one. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (September - February) is up 11.0 percent, while rate is also up 2.9 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during August for arrival August – January was down -5.7 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for September is up 17.5 percent with an increase in rate of 7.5 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, occupancy is not gaining in any of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains in September are holding a lead (17.5 percent) while the next month to follow, although not an actual gain, is October (-1.6 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books September- February) in aggregate has decreased -4.3 percent while rate has increased by 8.9 percent. Bookings taken in August for arrivals in August through January is down -12.7 percent.