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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-09-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of September 30, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,458 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 62.2% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 46.2%40.7%13.6%14.9% $184 $175 5.2%6.8% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 19.4%20.3%-4.4%20.4% $166 $147 13.0%7.5% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, November to March: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 13.6%15.6%-12.6%8.0% $194 $171 13.2%1.4% 29.0%31.2%-7.0%3.7% $651 $595 9.4%4.3% 38.7%41.1%-5.8%-1.5% $522 $488 6.9%1.3% 35.1%44.4%-21.0%-8.2% $529 $464 14.1%5.4% 36.2%37.5%-8.5%-2.3% $314 $297 2.8%3.2% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Sep. 30, 2015 vs. Previous Year 6.1%6.9%-11.5%-2.3% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information:678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2015 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (September, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (September, 2014) for all arrival dates is down by (- 11.5%) Booking Pace (September): On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-21.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (14.1%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-8.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (2.8%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-7.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (9.4%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-5.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.9%). Occupancy January ADR January Occupancy Rates for next month (October, 2015) are down (-4.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (13.0%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-12.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (13.2%). Occupancy November ADR November DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (September, 2015) were up (13.6%) compared to the same period last year (September, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (5.2%). Occupancy (September) : ADR (September) : MARKET OVERVIEW: Five of the ‘official’ summer months are now past us, and the last two have been tumultuous from a market standpoint. Fin ancial markets were unable to rebound in September from the dramatic declines of August as investors continued to worry about global economic conditions, with a focus on China’s rec ent downturn. Domestically, concerns over a possible interest rate hike slowed investor confidence (though the hike never materialized) and employers had one of the weakest months of job creation in the past three years. However, better worker earnings and a sense of current stability in the economy prompted consumer confidence to climb from last month, resulting in consecutive months with the inde x over 100 points, a significant barrier crossed. But, despite the turmoil of the last two months, the mountain travel industry has been able to capitalize on its renewed summer season efforts and find the most enthusiastic of consumers to set itself up for another summer of growth. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for September was up 14.9 versus the same t ime last year, while rate was up 6.8 percent for the month. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September were up 12.7 percent (not shown).Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 14.9 percent in September versus 2014, while rate increased 6.8 percent. Vail's aggregate hi storic six month (April -September) occupancy (not shown) was slightly up 1.1 percent compared to 2014 while rate increased by 7.3 pe rcent. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September was down slightly -0.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:Market conditions are threatening as we move towards the very early part of the winter booking (and shopping) season. Once again we face government funding deadlines and, this time around, the situation is complicated by a lack of leadership in the Congressional House, further complicating resolution on several deadline items. The Federal Highways roject funding (10/29), US Federal Debt servicing ie –the debt ceiling (11/5) and Federal Government funding (12/10) will each impact financial markets as they come, or fail, to pass, and the added political instability has investors and markets a little edgy. Look for Wall St to be defensive for the next while and employers to perhaps be more frugal heading into the holidays than they might otherwise be. How –or whether –this will impact our very hearty consumers remains to be seen, but they’re likely to follow the markets if a slow-down is prolonged. However, as of September 30th, the months ahead are pacing well, though it’s very early in the season. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (October -March) is up 20.4 percent, while rate is also up 7.5 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during September for arr ival September –February was down -2.3 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for October is up 20.4 percent with an increase in rate of 7.5 percent compared to 2014. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, occupancy is gaining in two of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains in October are holding a lead (20.4 percent) while the next month to follow is October (8.0 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (October -February) in aggregate has decreased -10.5 percent while rate has increased by 8.4 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrivals in September through February is down -11.5 percent.