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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2015-12-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of December 31, 2015 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,399 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 60.7% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 58.4% 57.1% 2.4% 6.5% $614 $589 4.1% 3.3% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 62.5% 64.9% -3.8% 1.7% $528 $510 3.5% -0.7% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, February to June: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 54.3% 63.4% -14.3% -5.0% $561 $511 9.7% 2.8% 41.1% 45.3% -9.2% -1.3% $563 $546 3.2% 1.9% 10.7% 11.9% -10.0% 5.7% $230 $326 -29.4% -20.1% 4.3% 6.2% -30.5% 28.9% $157 $125 25.5% 5.5% 40.3% 40.6% 10.3% 12.3% $374 $361 9.8% 3.9% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Dec. 31, 2015 vs. Previous Year 5.3% 4.9% 7.1% 12.6% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (December, 2015) were up (2.4%) compared to the same period last year (December, 2014) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (4.1%). Occupancy (December) : ADR (December) : Occupancy Rates for next month (January, 2016) are down (-3.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (3.5%). Occupancy (January) : ADR (January) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-14.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (9.7%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-9.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (3.2%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-10.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-29.4%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are down (-30.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (25.5%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (10.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.8%). Occupancy June ADR June Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (December, 2015) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (December, 2014) for all arrival dates is up by (7.1%) Booking Pace (December): MARKET OVERVIEW : Markets were mixed in December, with employers leading the way by creating 292,000 jobs during the month, about 30% more than expected and helping to drive Consumer Confidence up to 96.2 points. However, financial marketplaces continued to struggle with a weakening economy in Asia and was feeling its way through the recent interest rate hike and what it might mean to the greater economy. Some of this uncertainty was felt in mountain destinations as we see widely varying performance across our participating resorts, despite relatively good snow conditions throughout. And, though we saw a dip in Christmas weekend bookings coming towards us, many destinations were surprised to find that the dip did not fill in during the month. But overall December was up across the industry in aggregate. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for December was up 6.5 versus the same time last year, while rate was up 3.3 percent for the month. Bookings taken in December for arrival in December was up 12.8 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 2.4 percent in December versus 2014, while rate increased 4.1 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (July- December) occupancy (not shown) was up 2.9 percent compared to 2014 while rate increased by 5.5 percent. Bookings taken in December for arrival in December was up 23.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: Economic conditions moving into the new year are difficult to gauge as we see consumers, employers and financial markets all behaving disparately in recent months, though the economic foundation is strong, despite concerns about reliance on a slowing Asian economy. Financial markets are expected to be unstable for the next while as the marketplace sorts itself out, but consumers continue to feel relatively good about both the present and the future of the economy. Employers – by far the most reliable sector of the economy – are likely to continue to create jobs at a strong pace, though we would hope for better wages. But again we see wide variances among individual destinations in for the coming months, though in aggregate the picture is positive. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (January - June) is up slightly at 1.7 percent, while rate is slightly down -0.7 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during December for arrival December – May was up 12.6 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Locally, Vail on-the-books for January is up slightly 1.7 percent with a decrease in rate of -0.7 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books. While there are occupancy gains in tthree of the following five months, rates are up in four months. May is leading the gains in occupancy with 28.9 percent and is followed by June with 12.3 percent. Occupancy for six months on-the-books (January - May) in aggregate has decreased -5.4 percent while rate has increased by 4.6 percent. Bookings taken in December for arrivals in December through May is up 7.1 percent.