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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary___Industry_Wide_2016-01-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of January 31, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,399 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 60.7% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 70.3% 70.9% -0.8% 2.9% $531 $517 2.7% -1.1% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 68.1% 73.2% -6.9% -0.9% $565 $531 6.4% 3.6% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, March to July: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 54.3% 58.3% -6.8% 0.8% $579 $545 6.1% 3.4% 13.6% 17.2% -21.0% -0.3% $244 $332 -26.8% -17.9% 7.9% 7.1% 11.1% 28.9% $146 $132 11.0% 1.2% 20.0% 20.3% -1.7% 6.0% $197 $175 13.1% 6.0% 40.8% 39.9% 7.6% 13.8% $404 $386 6.1% 0.4% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jan. 31, 2016 vs. Previous Year 7.0% 6.6% 6.3% 7.3% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (January, 2016) were down (-0.8%) compared to the same period last year (January, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was up (2.7%). Occupancy (January) : ADR (January) : Occupancy Rates for next month (February, 2016) are down (-6.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (6.4%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-6.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (6.1%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-21.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-26.8%). Occupancy April ADR April On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (11.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (11.0%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are down (-1.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (13.1%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (7.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (6.1%). Occupancy July ADR July Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (January, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (January, 2015) for all arrival dates is up by (6.3%) Booking Pace (January): MARKET OVERVIEW : January signaled a new year but a continuance of the unstable market conditions experience through most of the last two quarters of 2015. As in August of 2015, financial markets were rocked by serious declines in January as problems with the Chinese economy become increasingly apparent. At the same time, employers slowed the pace of job creation to 151,000 for the month, down from expectations and below the 207,000 average of the past year. However, consumers remained optimistic, with consumer confidence gaining on last month, citing employment and earnings as positive factors and likely buoyed by low consumer prices, inflation and fuel costs. However, when looked at holistically, the economy is uncertain at present, with a strong US dollar creation a travel trade deficit and room rate increases perhaps hitting an invisible ceiling, all of which is evident in wide month-to-month variances seen in mountain destination travel data. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for January was up 2.9 versus the same time last year, while rate was down -1.1 percent for the month. Bookings taken in January for arrival in January was up 9.9 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was slightly down by -0.8 percent in January versus 2015, while rate increased 2.7 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (August- January) occupancy (not shown) was up 1.7 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 4.3 percent. Bookings taken in January for arrival in January was up 32.4 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD: We have some concerns about consumerism heading into the last months of the winter season, with investors witnessing losses to savings for the first time in several years and not immediate recovery evident. The strength of the US dollar, while helpful from a consumer price point of view, is beginning to have a notable impact on travel to the US from international markets, typically a long-lead and lengthy reservation, and destinations will need to fill in the gaps domestically. However, consumers have continued to book travel through adverse conditions and we expect their behavior to remain the same, though we may be able to expect a slightly lower tolerance to rate increases. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (February - July) is up 5.3 percent, while rate is also up 1.7 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during January for arrival January – June was up 7.3 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for February is donw -6.9 percent with an increase in rate of 6.1 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books. While there are occupancy gains in two of the following five months, rates are up in four months. May is leading the gains in occupancy with 11.1 percent and is followed by July with 7.6 percent. Occupancy for six months on-the-books (February - June) in aggregate has increased slightly 0.4 percent while rate has increased by 6.5 percent. Bookings taken in January for arrivals in January through June is up 6.3 percent.