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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-02-29Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of February 29, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,565 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 64.9% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 74.2% 75.7%-2.1%0.8% $574 $550 4.4% 1.6% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 67.1% 69.7%-3.7%2.6% $583 $533 9.5% 5.3% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, April to August: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 15.7% 21.1%-25.9% -3.6% $248 $324 -23.5% -13.0% 9.3% 8.6%8.7% 21.4% $150 $134 12.0% 6.7% 26.2% 24.0%9.3% 8.9% $201 $179 12.3% 7.7% 21.7% 21.6%0.5% 11.3% $245 $222 10.5% 6.0% 40.2% 38.6%26.6% 14.5% $427 $405 14.5% 9.6% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Feb. 29, 2016 vs. Previous Year 5.2% 4.8%8.7% 8.8% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (February, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (February, 2015) for all arrival dates is up by (8.7%) Booking Pace (February): On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (0.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (10.5%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (26.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (14.5%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (8.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (12.0%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (9.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (12.3%). Occupancy June ADR June Occupancy Rates for next month (March, 2016) are down (-3.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (9.5%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are down (-25.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-23.5%). Occupancy April ADR April DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (February, 2016) were down (-2.1%) compared to the same period last year (February, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was up (4.4%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : MARKET OVERVIEW: Conditions on financial marketplaces improved slightly in February from January, but were no less volatile, with wild swings on Wall Street further signaling concerns about the impact of international markets on the domestic economy. In response to the consecutive months’ wild ride, consumer confidence declined to its lowest level since July, 2015, despite the addition of 242,000 jobs last month. Within the mountain travel industry, rate continued to gain, but at levels considerably below those to which we’ve become accustomed, perhaps impeded a bit by warm temperatures and a lack of snow through the Rockies and Far West. But last-minute bookings went a long way to securing a better February than had been expected, though fell short of what was hoped-for. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for February was up 0.8 versus the same time last year, while rate was up 1.6 percent for the month. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February was up 18.8 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was slightly down -2.1 percent in February versus 2015, while rate increased 4.4 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (September - February) occupancy (not shown) was up 2.1 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 3.6 percent. Bookings taken in Febraury for arrival in JFebruary was up 3sharply at 135.3 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:We have some concerns about consumerism heading into the last months of the winter season, with investors witnessing losses to savings for the first time in several years and not immediate recovery evident. The strength of the US dollar, while helpful from a consumer price point of view, is beginning to have a notable impact on travel to the US from international markets, typically a long-lead and lengthy reservation, and destinations will need to fill in the gaps domestically. However, consumers have continued to book travel through adverse conditions and we expect their behavior to remain the same, though we may be able to expect a slightly lower tolerance to rate increases. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (February - July) is up 5.3 percent, while rate is also up 1.7 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during January for arrival January – June was up 7.3 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for March is down -3.7 percent with an increase in rate of 9.5 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in four of the five months while rates are up in in four of the five months as well. Occupancy gains are led by August (26.6 percent) and June (9.3 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (March - August) in aggregate has increased 2.8 percent while rate has also increased by 8.1 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival February through July was up 8.7 percent.