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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-03-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of March 31, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 24 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,399 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 60.7% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 76.0% 76.2%-0.2%5.2% $571 $541 5.6% 2.5% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 25.1% 28.7%-12.3%3.0% $239 $314 -23.9% -12.2% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, May to September: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 13.1% 10.7%21.9% 21.6% $149 $136 9.4% 7.9% 34.1% 28.1%21.4% 5.5% $201 $179 12.4% 8.5% 29.0% 26.8%8.4% 8.9% $249 $227 9.3% 5.9% 24.3% 18.7%30.0% 13.1% $262 $232 13.1% 6.9% 41.8% 38.9%22.6% 23.1% $432 $412 2.5% 6.8% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Mar. 31, 2016 vs. Previous Year 7.6% 5.0%53.9% 5.8% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (March, 2016) were down (-0.2%) compared to the same period last year (March, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was up (5.6%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : Occupancy Rates for next month (April, 2016) are down (-12.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also down (-23.9%). Occupancy (April) : ADR (April) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are up (21.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.4%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (21.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (12.4%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (8.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.3%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (30.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (13.1%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (22.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (2.5%). Occupancy September ADR September Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (March, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (March, 2015) for all arrival dates is up by (53.9%)Booking Pace (March): MARKET OVERVIEW: Overall economic conditions in March were favorable to the consumer marketplace, as financial markets gained during the month, led by the Dow Jones, which added 7.1 percent and finished at 17,685 points. Consumers followed suit, adding 2.2 points to the confidence index and closing March at 96.2 points. Much of these gains can be attributed to ongoing strong job creation, as employers added 215,000 new jobs in March. However, while March is a bright spot, it represents an outlier of-late, as markets have sea-sawed since August 2015. The March market strength was clearly visible in the performance of mountain destination travel during the month as short-lead bookings and rate strength took over, helped by Easter moving from April last year and snow in many regions. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for March was up 5.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was up 2.5 percent for the month. Bookings taken in March for arrival in March was up 23.0 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was slightly down -0.2 percent in March versus 2015, while rate increased 5.6 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (October - March) occupancy (not shown) was up slightly 0.1 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 4.9 percent. Bookings taken in March for arrival in March was up 36.9 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:With the formal, statistical end of winter coming on April 30th, and early summer bookings now being made, the stage is being set for the next several months by a combination of forces that are likely to be big influencers of consumers in the months to come. Financial markets remain vulnerable as the strong US dollar simultaneously makes it harder for international travelers to visit the United States and ‘invites’ the domestic market to travel abroad this summer. The Dow Jones and consumer confidence have both had difficulty keeping traction since August 2015 and those markets will look for strong job creation to offset concerns consumers might feel if financial markets remain unstable. But the immediate look ahead is encouraging for mountain travel destinations, with April building nicely despite Easter moving to March, and summer months on-the-books booking very strongly at this early stage. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (April - September) is up 11.2 percent, while rate is also up 4.2 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during March for arrival March – August was up 5.8 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for April is down -12.3 percent with a decrease in rate of -23.9 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in five of the five months while rates are up in in all five months as well. Occupancy gains are led by August (30.0 percent) and September (22.6 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (April - September) in aggregate has increased 13.3 percent while rate has decreased slightly -0.8 percent. Bookings taken in March for arrival March through August was up 53.9 percent.