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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-04-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of April 30, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,538 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 64.2% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 28.7% 34.2%-16.0%5.3% $233 $292 -20.3% -12.1% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 18.3% 16.0%14.5% 17.9% $150 $140 7.5% 7.1% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, June to October: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 39.4% 35.3%11.7% 8.8% $205 $180 13.7% 7.2% 34.3% 33.3%3.0% 7.2% $257 $225 14.1% 6.1% 27.5% 23.0%19.6% 9.8% $266 $230 15.7% 8.6% 19.4% 16.4%18.1% 23.8% $187 $177 6.0% 6.1% 42.3% 39.8%84.2% 5.9% $435 $412 -3.8%2.2% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Apr. 30, 2016 vs. Previous Year 4.2% 5.1%-18.8%6.0% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (April, 2016) were down (-16.0%) compared to the same period last year (April, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was also down (-20.3%). Occupancy (April) : ADR (April) : Occupancy Rates for next month (May, 2016) are up (14.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (7.5%). Occupancy (May) : ADR (May) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are up (11.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (13.7%). Occupancy June ADR June On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (3.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (14.1%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (19.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (15.7%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (18.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (6.0%). Occupancy September ADR September On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are up (84.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-3.8%). Occupancy October ADR October Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (April, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (April, 2015) for all arrival dates is down by (-18.8%)Booking Pace (April): MARKET OVERVIEW: The tone of economic conditions shifted from mostly positive to somewhat concerning during the month of April as markets softened on several fronts. The Dow Jones, which has been volatile since August ’15, increased very slightly 0.5 percent during April and finished below last year for the eighth time in the last nine months. Consumer Confidence also declined, losing -2.6 percent as consumers were less bullish on the short-term economy, suggesting no real growth in the months to-come. At the same time, new job creation was well-below analysts’ expectations at 160,000. The slowing sentiment of consumers was felt somewhat in mountain destinations in April, but late-season snow helped cushion revenue declines in many destinations that were challenged with Easter moving to March on top of the economic softening. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for April was up 5.3 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was down -12.1 percent for the month. Bookings taken in April for arrival in April was up 17.4 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -16.0 percent in April versus 2015, while rate decreased -20.3 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (November - April) occupancy (not shown) was down -1.5 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 4.5 percent. Bookings taken in April for arrival in April was down -29.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:Winter season is formally behind us and we look ahead to the summer drive market with both optimism and trepidation. Changes in the economy in recent months seem to be indicating a slowing as globally-dominant US markets feel the drag of its trading partners. Wall Street has proven to be variable at best since August last year and there is no clear indication that this will change in the months ahead. Consumers, who are traditionally in lock-step with financial markets, are also showing trepidation as confidence wavers back and forth. The guiding hand will be that of the job market and we’ll hope for returned strength in May or start thinking of more defensive positions. However, summer has proven to be the strongest growth time for each of the past 5 years and 2016 on-the-books is no different, particularly as gasoline prices continue to drop and the lands around mountain resorts become more accessible through legislation. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (May - October) is up 11.6 percent, while rate is also up 6.5 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during April for arrival April – September was up 6.0 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for May is up 14.5 percent with an inccrease in rate of 7.5 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in all five months while rates are up in in four of the five months as well. Occupancy gains are led by October (84.2 percent) and August (19.6 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (May- October) in aggregate has increased 15.0 percent while rate has increased 11.6 percent. Bookings taken in April for arrival April through September was down -18.8 percent.