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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-05-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of May 31, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,456 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 62.1% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2015/16 2014/15 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 24.0% 19.8%20.8% 14.2% $151 $140 8.0% 5.7% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 47.4% 43.2%9.8% 8.1% $206 $185 11.5% 7.9% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, July to November: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 43.9% 42.0%4.4% 5.7% $261 $230 13.8% 6.7% 32.2% 28.2%14.2% 10.3% $271 $228 18.6% 6.6% 22.8% 18.7%21.6% 21.9% $197 $177 11.4% 7.1% 8.1% 4.4%83.4% 6.1% $167 $166 0.3% 5.7% 42.8% 39.9%79.7% 14.6% $436 $414 -0.1%8.3% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: May. 31, 2016 vs. Previous Year 5.3% 4.8%10.0% 5.8% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (May, 2016) were up (20.8%) compared to the same period last year (May, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (8.0%). Occupancy (May) : ADR (May) : Occupancy Rates for next month (June, 2016) are up (9.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (11.5%). Occupancy (June) : ADR (June) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (4.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (13.8%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are up (14.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (18.6%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (21.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (11.4%). Occupancy September ADR September On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are up (83.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (0.3%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are up (79.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-0.1%). Occupancy November ADR November Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (May, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (May, 2015) for all arrival dates is up by (10.0%)Booking Pace (May): MARKET OVERVIEW: After shifting to a slower lane last month, the vehicle of the economy shifted down a gear in May, with financial markets remaining essentially flat while consumer confidence declined for the third time in four months. But the concern this month lays with the job market; employers added a mere 38,000 jobs in May, well below the 110,000 expected and dramatically below the current six-month average of 200,000. While there has been a slowing trend in job growth over the past 18 months, this drop is unexpected and concerning, particularly as jobs have been the economic backbone for much of the last three years. Though the low job creation was accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate from 5.0 to 4.7%, the rate declined due to a lack of participation in the workforce, as discouraged workers abandoned their job searches. Other than some early season rate challenges in some destinations, there is no evidence as-yet that the destination traveler was impacted in May, though a delay is not uncommon. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for May was up 14.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was also up 5.7 percent for the month. Bookings taken in May for arrival in May was up 9.2 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 20.8 percent in May versus 2015, while rate increased 8.0 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (December - May) occupancy (not shown) was up 1.9 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 4.3 percent. Bookings taken in May for arrival in May was up 37.5 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:We are headed to the summer season with concern for the overall marketplace as recent negative trends in financial, consumer, and now job markets become increasingly pronounced. The recent dramatic drop in job creation is likely to have an impact on the consumer marketplace, including a likely freeze on further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve bank. But consumers may well pull-back from spending despite any such action, and destinations should monitor rate elasticity to see if booking pace is being impacted by rate-sensitive consumers, particularly as summer is hitting its stride within our industry. How much, or indeed if, this happens will depend to some degree on where financial marketplaces go and whether employers can rebound from May to create stability between now and Election day. Looking at booking trends, summer appears sound at this point, building on the good foundation laid early, but only 7% of the season’s revenue is already banked, so there’s a lot of room for shift. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (June - November) is up 9.6 percent, while rate is also up 6.8 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during May for arrival May – October was up 5.8 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for June is up 9.8 percent with an inccrease in rate of 11.5 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in all five months while rates are up in in four of the five months as well. Occupancy gains are led by October (83.4 percent) and November (79.7 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (June- November) in aggregate has increased 14.1 percent while rate has increased 12.4 percent. Bookings taken in May for arrival May through October was up 10.0 percent.