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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-07-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of July 31, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,389 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 60.4% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2016/17 2015/16 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 68.6% 61.5%11.5% 5.0% $263 $239 9.9% 6.3% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 50.6% 47.6%6.4% 3.8% $269 $239 12.4% 6.9% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, September to January: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 31.8% 24.6%28.9% 15.8% $206 $196 5.0% 5.7% 11.3% 7.1%57.8% 2.6% $164 $172 -4.5%4.1% 7.6% 6.9%9.8% 9.3% $209 $200 4.1% 2.0% 16.9% 16.5%2.2% 8.1% $736 $674 9.2% 3.9% 39.6% 38.0%-17.9%10.1% $385 $370 3.9%-0.2% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Jul. 31, 2016 vs. Previous Year 5.9% 5.9%-1.1% -7.9% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (July, 2016) were up (11.5%) compared to the same period last year (July, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (9.9%). Occupancy (July) : ADR (July) : Occupancy Rates for next month (August, 2016) are up (6.4%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (12.4%). Occupancy (August) : ADR (August) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for September are up (28.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (5.0%). Occupancy September ADR September On the Books Occupancy Rates for October are up (57.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is down (-4.5%). Occupancy October ADR October On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are up (9.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.1%). Occupancy November ADR November On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are up (2.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (9.2%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-17.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (3.9%). Occupancy January ADR January Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (July, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (July, 2015) for all arrival dates is down by (-1.1%)Booking Pace (July): MARKET OVERVIEW: Domestic markets were more than a little resilient in their response to the UK’s vote in June to leave the European Union. Though there will be long-term consequences at home and abroad, for the time being Wall Street is feeling confident, with the Dow Jones gaining sharply during the month. The mood of investors was set in large part by employers, who added a very strong 285,000 jobs during the month, and unemployment remained unchanged as many discouraged workers returned to the booming job market. Both the job and financial markets kept consumers afloat as consumer confidence remained all-but unchanged, declining 0.1 points. None of this buoyancy is lost on the travel market, where guests continue to push summer performance to new record levels in both occupancy and rate. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for July was up 5.0 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was also up 6.3 percent for the month. Bookings taken in July for arrival in July was down -8.7 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 11.5 percent in July versus 2015, while rate increased 9.9 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (February - July) occupancy (not shown) was up 5.1 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 5.2 percent. Bookings taken in July for arrival in July was up 28.2 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:It is now the peak of the summer travel season and concerns over economic storm clouds as we looked for fallout from the Brexit vote, have failed to materialize. Markets appear on a roll, with the Dow hitting record levels in July and carrying that momentum into August. Employers are also exceeding expectations of-late and there are no clear threats to job creation in the immediate future, which ought to keep consumers confident. However, economic stability leads the Federal Reserve to consider increasing interest rates, and federal election years tend to create uncertainty in the marketplace, at least until election day. So we move into the end of summer and the dynamic, new September / October “season” with a note of caution, but not one of concern. Clearly, the travel consumer is bullish on destination travel, with the months ahead looking very strong. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (August – January) is up 8.2 percent, while rate is also up 4.3 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during July for arrival July - December was down -7.9 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for August is up 6.4 percent with an inccrease in rate of 12.4 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in four of the five months while rates are up in in four of the five months as well. Occupancy gains are led by October (57.8 percent) and Sepember (28.9 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (August - January) in aggregate has increased 6.8 percent while rate has increased 1.1 percent. Bookings taken in July for arrival July through December was down -1.1 percent.