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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2016-10-31Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of October 31, 2016 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,040 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 51.6% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2016/17 2015/16 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 34.2% 27.2%25.7% 1.2% $172 $160 8.0% 7.2% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 26.0% 22.3%16.8% 3.7% $215 $191 12.3% 11.6% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, December to April: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 44.3% 37.5%18.1% 9.7% $680 $628 8.2% 7.1% 45.6% 45.1%1.0% 10.1% $551 $528 4.3% 4.3% 41.6% 41.2%0.9% 3.8% $563 $540 4.2% 5.1% 28.8% 31.2%-7.5%6.2% $548 $533 2.8% 4.2% 40.7% 37.1%47.3% 0.0% $350 $327 7.0% 16.0% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Oct. 31, 2016 vs. Previous Year 8.1% 7.3%10.3% 1.7% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (October, 2016) were up (25.7%) compared to the same period last year (October, 2015) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (8.0%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : Occupancy Rates for next month (November, 2016) are up (16.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (12.3%). Occupancy (November) : ADR (November) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are up (18.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (8.2%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are up (1.0%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.3%). Occupancy January ADR January On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are up (0.9%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.2%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are down (-7.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (2.8%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are up (47.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (7.0%). Occupancy April ADR April Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (October, 2016) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (October, 2015) for all arrival dates is up by (10.3%) Booking Pace (October): MARKET OVERVIEW: The month of October finished up economically much as it started, with financial markets losing a small amount of ground over the course of the month but remaining strong. The Dow Jones lost 0.9 percent in October but remains up 2.4 percent from where it was last year and was still above the 18,000-point mark on October 31. Employers picked up the pace slightly on job creation, adding 161,000 new jobs, and increased wages by the largest year-over-year amount (2.8 percent) since the recession began. Thought this is good news overall for consumers, consumer confidence took a downturn from over 102 points to 98.6 points, the first dip below 100 since July. Consumers were feeling a bit anxious about long-term business prospects. Though there has been a fundamental shift nationally since October 31, with a surprise election result, the data reflect pre-election behavior, and October finished strong in most mountain destination communities, sealing the deal on a fifth consecutive record summer season. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for October was up 1.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was also up 7.2 percent for the month. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October was down -5.3 percent (not shown).Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 25.7 percent in October versus 2015, while rate increased 8.0 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (May - October) occupancy (not shown) was up 15.0 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 11.3 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October was slightly up 0.5 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:Though the data for this report pre-date the election results, it’s worth noting that we now head into winter on a wave of uncertainty following the close of a combative Presidential election and an outcome that has surprised even the parties. While first-term presidencies are typically associated with slower economic growth, analysts are concerned with the lack of direction indicated by the new administration, so we’ll have to watch the transition unfold and then check our November 30th data to see what impact, if any, the results have on bookings. In the meantime, we head into the Holiday season knowing that this is a time of job creation – albeit often temporary – and economic growth, as well as the true beginning of the ski season as snow starts to fall. Employers are expected to add 750,000 new jobs over the coming two months and many are expecting those to convert to full-time. Combined with the recent increase in average wages, this should trickle down nicely to the consumer side of the marketplace. Clearly snow equity from last year, strong momentum out of the summer months and healthy economic conditions are spurring early season strength. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (November – April) is up 6.6 percent, while rate is also up 7.5 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during October for arrival October - April was up 1.7 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Vail on-the-books for November is up 16.8 percent with an inccrease in rate of 12.3 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in four of the five months while rates are up in all five of the months. Occupancy gains are led by April (47.3 percent) and December (18.1 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (November - April) in aggregate has increased 5.3 percent while rate has increased 4.1 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival October through March was up 10.3 percent.