HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail Town Council12.20.16 v5Vail Town Council
Vail Economic Advisory Council
Data as of Nov 30, 2016
Ralf Garrison
Market Update
1.Introduction
2.Econometrics
3.Summer 2016 Review
4.Winter 2016/17 Preview
Index
2
MTNWEST
•Aspen
•Avon, Colorado
•Breckenridge
•Big Sky
•Beaver Creek
•Copper
•Gunnison/Crested Butte
•Keystone
•Mt Bachelor
•Mammoth Lakes
•Jackson Hole
•North Lake Tahoe
•Snowmass
•Steamboat
•Park City Area
•Summit County, CO
•Telluride
•Vail
•Winter Park
25 properties representing 1,926 units
50.7% of total community census
Vail Property Participation
4
Loss of inventory
Vail Cascade (closed for renovations – reopen Mar. 2017)
Vail Spa (closed for renovations - reopen Dec. 2016)
Vail International (stopped submitting)
Various Properties (lost 6 – 22 units each)
Sitzmark Lodge
Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
The Sebastian
The Wren
Tivoli Lodge
Vail Mountain Lodge
Vail Racquet Club
Vail Spa Condominiums
Vail Marriott
The Lodge at Vail
The Ritz-Carlton Residences
25 Data Submitting Properties
5
Antlers at Vail
Arrabelle at Vail Square
Christiania Lodge & Condos (new in 2016)
Destination Resorts Vail
Vail Cascade Condos
Evergreen Lodge at Vail
Four Seasons Resort Vail
Lion Square Lodge
Lodge at Lionshead
Lodge Tower
Manor Vail Resort
Montaneros
1.Introduction
2.Econometrics
3.Summer 2016 Review
4.Winter 2016/17 Preview
Index
6
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%19124
4.6%
107.1
Dow Jones
Confidence
Unemployment
Confidence, The Dow & Unemployment
January ‘07 – November ‘16
7
Trump Bump
8
1.Introduction
2.Econometrics
3.Summer 2016 Review
4.Winter 2016/17 Preview
Index
9
#DMXWinterPreview
Summer Index DestiMetrics West Industry-Wide
10
26.3%
45.1%
42.9%
32.3%
80.3%
95.7%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 16 VS '07
Vail Summer Performance: 2008 - 2016 vs 2007
Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007
Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007
Summer 2016 May - October
11
Year over Year
% Change in
Vail
Industry-
Wide
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
15% 7%
12%
28%
8%
15%
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 2016 Data as of Oct. 31, 2016
12
Fourth of July
Go Pro Games 2015
Go Pro Games 2016
1.Introduction
2.Econometrics
3.Summer 2016 Review
4.Winter 2016/17 Preview
Index
13
-2.1%
3.4%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs
'07/08
'09/10 vs
'07/08
'10/11/vs
07/08
'11/12 vs
07/08
'12/13 vs
'07/08
13/14 vs
'07/08
14/15 vs
'07/08
15/16 vs
'07/08
26.7%
11.3%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs
'07/08
'09/10 vs
'07/08
'10/11/vs
07/08
'11/12 vs
07/08
'12/13 vs
'07/08
13/14 vs
'07/08
14/15 vs
'07/08
15/16 vs
'07/08
Vail + Industry Winter Performance: 2008/09 - 2015/16 vs 2007/08 Benchmark
24.3%
15.6%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
'07/08 '08/09 vs
'07/08
'09/10 vs
'07/08
'10/11/vs
07/08
'11/12 vs
07/08
'12/13 vs
'07/08
13/14 vs
'07/08
14/15 vs
'07/08
15/16 vs
'07/08
Vail + Industry Winter Performance: 2008/09 - 2015/16 vs 2007/08 Benchmark
14
Vail vs. Industry Winter Performance 2007/08 – 2015/16
Vail DOR as of 11/30/15
15
Vail DOR as of 4/30/16
16
17
Vail: Occupancy – Winter 16/17
Data as of Nov. 30, 2016
Industry
+3%
Vail
0%
18
Vail: ADR – Winter 16/17
Data as of Nov. 30, 2016
Industry
+7%
Vail
+9%
19
Vail: RevPAR – Winter 16/17
Data as of Nov. 30, 2016
Industry
+10%
Vail
+9%
Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 16/17
Data as of Nov 30 2016
20
Easter
2016
Easter
2017
Delayed Mtn
Opening
Post Xmas
Bump
Wild Cards
21
1.Introduction
2.Econometrics
3.Summer 2016 Review
4.Winter 2016/17 Preview
Index
22
Thank you!
23