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HomeMy WebLinkAboutVail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2017-02-28 - RESTATEDDestination: Vail Period: Bookings as of February 28, 2017 Data based on a sample of up to 25 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,321 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 58.7% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2016/17 2015/16 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 76.0% 74.1%2.7% 1.2% $660 $574 15.0% 6.0% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 62.4% 67.2%-7.2% -0.6% $622 $582 6.9% 3.8% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, April to August: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 24.6% 15.6%57.6% 6.1% $289 $247 17.1% 9.9% 7.8% 9.4%-16.7% -1.1% $159 $148 7.2% 7.2% 24.3% 26.0%-6.3% -0.4% $217 $199 9.1% 8.3% 25.9% 21.5%20.1%-0.2% $263 $244 7.8% 9.5% 16.6% 18.2%-8.7%10.4% $273 $269 1.5% 13.2% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Feb. 28, 2017 vs. Previous Year 4.9% 5.2%-4.9% -12.1% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Kelli McDonald, Economic Development Manager; (970) 479-2454 kmcdonald@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar DestiMetrics, LLC Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2016 - DestiMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (February, 2017) compareed to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (February, 2016) for all arrival dates is down by (-4.9%) Booking Pace (February): On the Books Occupancy Rates for July are up (20.1%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (7.8%). Occupancy July ADR July On the Books Occupancy Rates for August are down (-8.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (1.5%). Occupancy August ADR August On the Books Occupancy Rates for May are down (-16.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (7.2%). Occupancy May ADR May On the Books Occupancy Rates for June are down (-6.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (9.1%). Occupancy June ADR June Occupancy Rates for next month (March, 2017) are down (-7.2%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is up (6.9%). Occupancy (March) : ADR (March) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for April are up (57.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (17.1%). Occupancy April ADR April DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (February, 2017) were up (2.7%) compared to the same period last year (February, 2016) , while Average Daily Rate was also up (15.0%). Occupancy (February) : ADR (February) : MARKET OVERVIEW: February was a mixed bag with respect to our two traditional wildcard forces of weather and the economy. On the weather front, many mountain destinations experienced warmer and drier conditions during the month, while several had more snow than they could deal with at times. Meanwhile, on the economic front, things boomed yet again during the month as the Dow Jones added a strong 948 points in February and closed at an all-time monthly record, and employers added 235,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations. Consumers, meanwhile, threw their hat into the ring and increased confidence to just under 115 points, the highest level since July 2001. For the most part, the strong market forces at-play are reflected consistently in bookings, as booking pace slows, but rate remains very strong. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for February was up 1.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was up 6.0 percent for the month. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February were down -28.7 percent (not shown). Locally, Vail Occupancy was up 2.7 percent in February versus 2016, while rate increased 15.0 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (September - February) occupancy (not shown) was up 6.5 percent compared to the same period last year while rate increased by 10.7 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival in February was down -46.7 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:Wall Street continues to take queues from the new administration and is anticipating an easing of regulatory oversight in the coming months, which can be expected to continue driving financial markets upward for the time being. At the same time, consumers are experiencing the highest confidence rates they’ve had in 16 years, and as long as wages keep pace with inflation, consumer spending is likely to continue within the travel market segment for the foreseeable future. However, there are a few things to watch for in the economy as a whole and the travel market specifically: a) a likely increase in interest rates in mid-march as the Federal Reserve Bank takes steps to control inflation; b) higher consumer prices as inflation naturally results from positive economic growth; c) challenges to destination inventory as towns and resorts work to manage changes in how transient inventory units are managed and sold. But with all that in mind, travel is looking strong overall for the coming months. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (March - August) is slightly up 0.7 percent, while rate is up 6.0 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during February for arrival February – July were down -12.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Locally, Vail on-the-books for March is down -7.2 percent with an inccrease in rate of 6.9 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the other five months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in two of the five months while rates are up in all five months. Occupancy gains are led by April (57.6 percent) and July (20.1 percent). Occupancy for six months on-the-books (March - August) in aggregate has decreased -3.4 percent while rate has also slightly decreased by -0.7 percent. Bookings taken in February for arrival February - July was down -4.9 percent.