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Home My WebLink About3.c. RRC Spring Back to Vail memo 05302017_FINAL1 From: Chris Cares and David Becher, RRC Associates To: Laura Waniuk and Kelli McDonald Re: Spring Back to Vail Events Research Results Date: 5/30/2017 As discussed, we have summarized some background information concerning the RRC research findings for Spring Back to Vail which was held on April 14-16, 2017. As you know, our 2017 survey work focused on the concert only. We understand that there have been some questions about our findings, and particularly the lower Net Promoter Score ratings this year. In this short memo we will provide some additional information and we will put our findings into a more complete context. Events Data – Lodging Occupancy and Parking Counts. In evaluating Spring Back this year we suggest that the event needs to be considered from a variety of standpoints. Our survey results inform this discussion but there are a number of other factors that can be identified and that merit discussion. Typically, RRC is looking at more than just survey results to develop the dashboards that we present to the Town of Vail. Several initial considerations from this year should be noted. Spring Back was a week later this year than in 2016 and this undoubtedly impacted the overall event attendance, particularly occupancy. As shown below, the lodging occupancy was down rather sharply, and particularly on Saturday night this year compared to Saturday in 2016 – by 30 percent according to Destimetrics data. Parking transactions were also down year over year although not as much as lodging occupancy (between 8 and 15 percent). These shifts affected the makeup of the concert crowd. In 2017 the survey respondents indicating they were overnight visitors were estimated to be 32 percent of concert attendees, compared to 50 percent in 2016. The data suggest that a larger percentage of concertgoers were local and seasonal residents this year as summarized in the attached dashboards (see discussion below), undoubtedly the result of lower occupancy. The lower lodging occupancy indicates fewer overnight visitors in town, which also likely impacted the size of the crowd at the concert in 2017, estimated at about 4,000, down from an estimated 7,000 in 2016. Spring Back to Vail Research 2 Comparison of lodging and parking volumes: Spring Back dates 2017 & 2016 Date Lodging occupancy Parking transactions DOW 2016 2017 2017 2016 % change 2017 2016 % change 4 4/7/2016 4/13/2017 51% 68% -25% 3,345 3,918 -15% 5 4/8/2016 4/14/2017 58% 77% -25% 3,661 4,327 -15% 6 4/9/2016 4/15/2017 52% 75% -30% 3,920 4,264 -8% 7 4/10/2016 4/16/2017 29% 26% 14% 3,377 3,816 -12% Th-Sat average 54% 73% -27% 3,642 4,170 -13% Fr-Sat average 55% 76% -27% 3,791 4,296 -12% Th-Sun average 48% 62% -22% 3,576 4,081 -12% Fr-Sun average 47% 59% -21% 3,653 4,136 -12% Sources: Destimetrics and Town of Vail parking records Survey Results. The survey instruments used in 2017 and 2016 were very similar, permitting direct comparisons of results year over year. Again, these findings are summarized in the attachment. Although event attendee profiles are not identical across the two years, they are similar with the exception of Net Promoter Scores (NPS). The NPS was down from a very high level in 2016 (87 percent) to a relatively low 27 percent in 2017. How do we interpret the NPS survey results, year over year? First, we believe that the NPS scores can be legitimately used to inform discussions concerning this year’s event, but they should be used with caution. It is important to note that surveys both years were collected randomly during the concert, an important consideration in the statistical interpretation of findings. An important consideration in interpreting the survey results is based on the size of the sample in both years. While 50 to 70 surveys may seem like a small number, there is a statistical validity to the findings nonetheless. As illustrated in the graph in the attachment, the 95 percent confidence interval about a proportion of 27 percent (the NPS score) with a sample size of 67 is +/-10.6 percentage points, or 16.4 percent to 37.6 percent. This indicates a relatively low NPS score in 2017, even at the high end of the range. Similarly, the 2016 range based on 58 completed surveys and an NPS of 87 percent would have been in the range of approximately +/-7.5 percentage points or between 94.5 and 79.5 percent. The 2016 figure was on the very high end of the range and our conclusion is that the concert was rated lower this year. Concerts present special challenges for intercept surveying – with a large and densely packed crowd and event participants in various states of “bliss,” the limitations of surveys as a perfect yardstick of attendee perceptions should be acknowledged. In fact, these limitations have been a consideration in the overall design of the research program we conduct for the Town. The Events Research effort seeks to balance gathering quality information with the costs of obtaining the data. Other Considerations for Evaluating Events. As noted above, the makeup of visitors to Vail was different this year based in part on the timing of Easter. Further, the venue location was changed, the event was Spring Back to Vail Research 3 competing with Sunsation at Copper Mountain, the name recognition of performers, weather and other potential factors could all be identified in the evaluation of Spring Back this year. We believe multiple criteria should and likely are used by TOV in deciding what events to support. NPS alone probably should not be considered a make-or-break factor, particularly if an event is successful in meeting other objectives, and there is opportunity to improve the event experience in the future. We at RRC are happy to address additional questions and to provide more assistance in interpreting results of the research as the need arises. Total economic impact per attendee day Restaurants/Bars/ Prepared Food Vendors Shopping Other items, excluding lodging Recreation Lodging $0 $100 $200 Economic Impactper Attendee-Day$77 $37 $13 $10$11 $6 Direct Economic Impact to TOV per Attendee-Day In commercial lodging In rent-by-owner lodging Vacation home/timeshare With friends/family Other 45% 18% 23% 9% 5% Overnight Visitor Profile Myself Only 2 3 4 5 6 or more 40% 10% 25% 10% 15% 1 2 3 - 5 6 - 8 9 - 14 15 or more 19% 38% 33% 5% 5% Vail Beaver Creek Avon Edwards Eagle/Gypsum Summit County Other 55% 23% 5% 5% 9% 5% Under $50k $50k-$100k $100-$150k $150k or more 23% 21% 17% 38% Overall Visitor Profile Under 18 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 or older 25% 16% 20% 20% 11% 2% 6% Male Female 46% 54% Promoter Passive Detractor 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%Percent Responding49% 28%22% Likelihood of Recommending Event to a Friend or Family Member 0: None, I would have come to Vail anyway 1 2 3 4 5: Half my reason for coming to Vail 6 7 8 9 10: My only reason for coming to Vail 0% 20%Percent Responding10% 29% 11%11% 22% 2%2%2%2% 6%5% Importance of Event in Decision to Visit Vail Today - Overall 2017 Event funding Direct economic impact to TOV (Excluding fundraising) Economic impact payback ratio (Excluding fundraising)$2.37 $308,315.06 $130,000.00 Return on Investment: Funding vs. Impact Summary of Key Trip Characteristics and DemographicsAttendee Days0K 10K 20K 4.0K Attendance Est 27% NPS Net Promoter Score Overnight visitor Seasonal resident of Vail Valley Full-time resident of Town of Vail Full-time downvalley resident Day visitor to Vail 0%Percent Responding32% 21%21%18% 9% Visitor Type Colorado California Maryland Missouri New York Florida Illinois Kentucky 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 70% 2017 Vail Event Visitor Summary: Spring Back to Vail, Apr. 14 - 16, 2017 (Results for Apr. 15 concert only) Survey technique: Intercept. Overall sample size: 68 (Please note that sample sizes are smaller for subgroups.) Number of years event has taken place in Vail (including 2017): 14 Average OverallOvernight visitor Seasonal resident of Vail ValleyFull-time resident of Town of VailFull-time downvalley resident Day visitor to Vail 7.45.10.0 4.04.54.9 Are you staying: How many people are staying in your accomodations unit? Nights in the area this trip Where are your lodging accommodations located? Annual Household Income Age State/Country Gender Nightly Rate (if Paid) Average: Median:$306 $300 Overall Overnight visitor Overall Total economic impact per attendee day Restaurants/Bars/ Prepared Food Vendors Shopping Lodging Recreation (golf, bike rental, etc.) Other items, excluding lodging $0 $100 $200 Economic Impactper Attendee-Day$116 $73 $17 $13$10 $2 Direct Economic Impact to TOV per Attendee-Day In paid lodging Vacation home/timeshare With friends/family Other 72% 14% 10% 3% Overnight Visitor Profile Myself Only 2 3 4 5 6 or more 38% 17% 14% 14% 14% 3% 1 2 3 - 5 6 - 8 9 - 14 15 or more 14% 31% 48% 3% 3% Vail Beaver Creek Avon Edwards Eagle/Gypsum Summit County Other 76% 10% 3% 3% 3% 3% Under $50k $50k-$100k $100-$150k $150k or more 26% 19% 46% 9% Overall Visitor Profile Under 18 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 or older 25% 28% 30% 14% 4% Male Female 64% 36% Detractor Passive Promoter 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%% of Total Number of Records93% 6%2% Likelihood of Recommending Event to a Friend or Family Member 0: None, I would have come to Vail anyway 1 2 3 4 5: Half my reason for coming to Vail 6 7 8 9 10: My only reason for coming to Vail 0% 20%Percent Responding26% 22% 33% 4%4%2% 7% 2% Importance of Event in Decision to Visit Vail Today - Overall 2016 Event funding Direct economic Impact to TOV Economic impact payback ratio $6.49 $810,999.54 $125,000.00 Return on Investment: Funding vs. Impact Summary of Key Trip Characteristics and DemographicsAttendee-Days0K 10K 20K 7.0K Attendance Est 87% NPS Net Promoter Score Overnight visitor Seasonal resident of Vail Valley Full-time resident of Town of Vail Full-time downvalley resident Day visitor to Vail 0% 50%Percent Responding50% 21%17% 3%9% Visitor Type ColoradoGeorgiaWisconsinArizonaFloridaFranceMichiganMinnesotaMissouriNebraskaNew JerseyNew YorkTennesseeWashington 2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%4%5%71% Spring Back to Vail, April 8 - 10, 2016 - Concert Attendees Only Survey technique: Intercept. Overall sample size: 58. (Please note that sample sizes are smaller for subgroups.) Number of years event has taken place in Vail (including 2016): 13. Average Overnight visitor Seasonal resident of Vail Valley Full-time downvalley resident Full-time resident of Town of Vail Day visitor to Vail 7.8 7.9 10.0 3.8 Are you staying: How many people are staying in your accomodations unit? Nights in the area this trip Where are your lodging accommodations located? Annual Household Income Age State/Country Gender Nightly Rate (if Paid) Average: Median:$274 $250 Overall Overnight visitor Overall N/A