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HomeMy WebLinkAbout04. Vail_Executive_Summary_+_Industry_Wide_2017-09-30Destination: Vail Period: Bookings as of September 30, 2017 Data based on a sample of up to 26 properties in the Vail destination, representing up to 2,157 Units ('DestiMetrics Census'*) and 54.5% of 3,954 total units in the Vail destination ('Destination Census'**) a. Last Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 2017/18 2016/17 Vail Year over Year % Diff DestiMetrics Industry Wide Year over Year % Diff 50.7% 51.2%-0.9%1.4% $221 $206 7.5%5.8% b. Next Month Performance: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 26.8% 25.9%3.7%8.6% $184 $176 4.8%3.8% c. Future Months' On The Books Performance, November to March: Current YTD vs. Previous YTD 12.6% 18.2%-30.8%-3.3% $230 $218 5.4%1.8% 27.2% 34.2%-20.5%-5.5% $705 $726 -3.0%-0.1% 34.3% 35.2%-2.6%1.6% $586 $547 7.1%8.9% 34.8% 34.9%-0.3%2.0% $567 $560 1.2%8.3% 23.4% 23.2%0.6%-1.3% $588 $563 4.5%5.7% d. Incremental Pacing - % Change in Rooms Booked last Calendar Month: Sep. 30, 2017 vs. Previous Year 8.1% 7.2%12.9%8.5% For more information: Vail Contact Information: Laura Waniuk, Event Marketing Liaison- Economic Development; (970) 477-3417 mailto:lwaniuk@vailgov.com www.vailgov.com Vail Calendar of Events Click Here for Current Events Calendar Inntopia - DestiMetrics Contact Information: 678 S. Franklin St., Denver, CO 80209 303-722-7346 info@DestiMetrics.com www.DestiMetrics.com Produced by DestiMetrics Copyright © 2017 - Sterling Valley Systems. All Rights Reserved and protected by law Rooms Booked during last month (September, 2017) compared to Rooms Booked during the same period last year (September, 2016) for all arrival dates is up by (12.9%) Booking Pace (September): On the Books Occupancy Rates for February are down (-0.3%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (1.2%). Occupancy February ADR February On the Books Occupancy Rates for March are up (0.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also up (4.5%). Occupancy March ADR March On the Books Occupancy Rates for December are down (-20.5%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is also down (-3.0%). Occupancy December ADR December On the Books Occupancy Rates for January are down (-2.6%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (7.1%). Occupancy January ADR January Occupancy Rates for next month (October, 2017) are up (3.7%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate is also up (4.8%). Occupancy (October) : ADR (October) : On the Books Occupancy Rates for November are down (-30.8%) compared to the same period last year, while Average Daily Rate for the same period is up (5.4%). Occupancy November ADR November DESTINATION LEVEL RESERVATIONS ACTIVITY SUMMARY Presented as a community service by the Vail DestiMetrics participants and subscribers Executive Summary: Vail Occupancy Rates during last month (September, 2017) were down (-0.9%) compared to the same period last year (September, 2016) , while Average Daily Rate was up (7.5%). Occupancy (September) : ADR (September) : MARKET OVERVIEW: September was a positive month for most financial markets, while consumer confidence and national unemployment declined for the first time in months/years. The Dow Jones gained a strong 2.1 percent, or 456.99 points, and closed on September 30th at 22,405 points. The three major hurricanes that hit the U.S. caused tremendous damage to both people and property, and we are just starting to see some of the economic impacts. Consumer confidence, which had improved marginally in August, declined slightly in September. Specifically, the storms impacted employment where the job market experienced a net loss of 33,000 jobs in September, the result of over 130,000 jobs lost in the restaurant and bar sectors for the southeast. This was the first decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in seven years. It is yet to be seen if mountain travel will be affected by the decrease in consumer confidence and unemployment, but September and October certainly have not been affected. Both months are showing some notable gains in both occupancy and rate. Based on aggregate data from all West DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for September was up 1.4 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was up 5.8 percent for the month. Locally, Vail Occupancy was down -0.9 percent in September versus 2016, while there was an increase in rate of 7.5 percent. Vail's aggregate historic six month (April -September) occupancy (not shown) was up 4.1 percent compared to the same period last year accompanied with an increase in rate of 9.2 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrival in September were up 19.8 percent (not shown). LOOKING FORWARD:Whether in beach or mountain communities, October represents both a time to relax and an opportunity for business growth in the destination travel industry. Though consumer confidence dipped in September and job creation declined, confidence remains very strong relative to recent years, while the employment dip is a specific consequence of the recent hurricanes. And with financial markets continuing to be at record highs, the time is right to look for new clients for these slower months, as many of the mountain destinations have now successfully done. But global and domestic political issues continue to create uncertainty looking forward, and the consequence of conflict, whether financial or military, is unclear. But winter is settling into the mountains and bookings are coming in anticipation of the ski season, while some warm weather markets rebuilt infrastructure and others manage messaging in the wake of this year’s storms. In the meantime, the destination travel industry as a whole is strong, with commanding rate in both mountain and warm weather destinations. In mountain communities, based on the aggregate of West DestiMetrics industry- wide data, on-the-books occupancy for the upcoming six months (October - March) is up slightly 0.7 percent, while rate is up 4.0 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during September compared to the same period last year were up 8.3 percent. Locally, Vail on-the-books for October is up 3.7 percent accompanied with an increase in rate of 4.8 percent compared to this time last year. For the most part, economics 101 seems to be in play for the six months on-the-books, with occupancy gaining in one of the six months while rates are up in five of the six months. Year over year occupancy for November is down -30.8. Occupancy for six months on-the-books (October - March) in aggregate has decreased -7.7 percent while rate has increased 1.4 percent. Bookings taken in September for arrival September-February were up 8.1 percent.