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Home My WebLink About13. 2019-06-18 Vail Town Council v1aVail Town Council June 18, 2019 Data as of April 30, 2019 Presented by Tom Foley 2 Economy 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0 260.0 280.0 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Dow Jones Unemployment Confidence 3 Economy •Dow Jones: •10 year anniversary Feb 2009 recession low 7,063 points; 10 year gain 19,531 pts •Up 10.1% / 2431 Pts since April 2018; Up 6.3% / 1586 Pts Since Nov 1 •Winter Gain = 4 Months; Decline = 2 Months •Survived Shutdown, Tariffs, Trade War •+ /- Remains Oversold; Exchange Rates very high; Guidance Challenges; Trade •Consumer Confidence •10 year anniversary Feb 2009 recession low 25 points; 10 year gain 104.2 pts •Up 2.9% / 5.0 pts since April 2018; Down 6.3% / 8.7 pts since Nov 1 •Winter Gain = 3 Months; Decline = 3 Months •Wavering of-late, Consecutive declines •+/- Remains strong; spending still strong; interest rate increases; Trade •Unemployment Rate / Jobs •10 year anniversary Feb 2009 recession 8.1 percent (recession high 10.2%, Oct ‘09) •3.6 percent – near statistical ‘full employment; Stable •Winter Job Creation: 201,000, Prior 6 mos 213,000 •+/- Hit / miss projections 50/50; wages consistently increasing; over-employment, staffing issues; Trade Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail International Condos Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences 4 Antlers at Vail Arrabelle at Vail Square Christiania Lodge & Christiania Condos Destination Resorts Vail Vail Residences at Hotel Talisa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Hotel Talisa iTrip - Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower •Manor Vail Resort 27 Vail Submitting Properties •Aspen •Avon, Colorado •Breckenridge •Beaver Creek •Big Sky •Copper •Gunnison/Crested Butte •Keystone •Jackson Hole •Jackson Hole •North Lake Tahoe •Snowmass •Steamboat •Park City Area •Summit County, CO •Sun Valley •Telluride •Vail •Winter Park Participating Destinations 5 Reports with data as of April 30, 2019 include 27 properties representing 2,402 units 63% of total community census 6 Vail Property Participation 7 Snow 8 Dates Season Opening Closing 18/19 11/14/2018 04/21/2019 (159 days) 17/18 11/22/2017 04/15/2018 (145 days) 16/17 11/25/2016 04/23/2017 (150 days) 15/16 11/20/2015 04/17/2016 (150 days) 14/15 11/21/2014 04/19/2015 (150 days) 9 Skiers! 51.9 53.7 53.9 53.3 50.0 46.7 50.8 54.0 54.6 52.7 54.0 52.5 54.1 52.1 52.2 57.3 54.4 57.6 57.1 56.9 58.9 55.1 60.5 57.4 59.8 60.5 51.0 56.9 56.5 53.6 52.8 54.8 53.3 59.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 Vail Occupancy Winter 2018/19 -1% +10% +11% +4% Industry +5% +5% +4% +3% 11 Vail ADR Winter 2018/19 -4% -2% -11% -4% +2% -4% Industry +1 -4% 12 Vail RevPAR Winter 2018/19 -5% +8% -1% +6% -0.1% +0.2% Industry +6% +1% 13 Vail Change in Occupancy & ADR Winter 2018/19 14 Vail Winter Season YOY Change in Room Nights Available & Room Nights Booked 2018/19 2017/18 YOY Change Room Nights Available 442,481 427,447 3.5% Room Nights Booked 238,202 219,446 8.5% Occupancy 53.8% 51.3% 4.9% 15 Vail Fill Analysis as of 1/31/19 Winter 2018/19 +87.9% +51.5% +49.7% +15.3% -7.6% +64.4% 16 Performance Spectrum HIGHEST PERFORMING DESTINATION LOWEST PERFORMING DESTINATION VAIL DESTINATIONS GAIN / DECLINE Occupancy 62.1% 36.2% 53.8% 16/1 ADR $596 $147 $536 11/6 RevPAR $370 $64 $289 15/2 17 Aggregate Winter Rates Gaining -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% $- $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 $300.00 $350.00 $400.00 $450.00 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Industry Wide Winter ADR Performance & YOY Change West Industry Wide ADR West Industry Wide YOY % Change in ADR 18 … but Rate gains are slowing…… 6.5% 8.1% 7.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.8% 4.6% 11.6% 5.5% 5.0% 3.7% 11.2% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 9.8% 5.9% 3.8% 3.8% 0.7% 8.0% 5.1% 1.5% -0.9% 0.7% 2.8% 2.9% 1.4% 3.3% 5.1% 1.9% -4.3% 2.7% 2.3% 4.3% -2.7% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% ADR Gains Softening YOY ADR May 2016 to April 2019 19 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 2018/19 as of 4/30/19 20 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 2018/19 as of 1/31/19 Easter 2018 Burton US Open 2019 Shift in MLK Vail Snow Daze 2019 FBLA 2018 Burton US Open 2018 21 Vail Occupancy Summer 2019 -25% -12% -0.7% -7.8% Industry -0.7% -0.7% +4% +1% 22 Vail ADR Summer 2018 -2% +6% +3.4% Industry +2.5% +2% +4% +1% -0.3% 23 Vail RevPAR Summer 2018 -26% +1% -4.6% Industry +1.9% -8% -9% +6% +0.3% 24 Performance Spectrum - Summer HIGHEST PERFORMING DESTINATION LOWEST PERFORMING DESTINATION VAIL DESTINATIONS GAIN / DECLINE Occupancy 51.4% 7.2% 23.0% 7/10 ADR $430 $151 $248 13/4 RevPAR $170 $16 $57 11/6 25 30 Day Change SUMMER AS OF APRIL 30 SUMMER AS OF MAY 31 ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE Occupancy 23.0% -7.8% 28.2% -7.3% +0.5 Pts ADR $248 +3.5% $243 -0.7% -4.2 Pts RevPAR $57 -4.6% $68 -7.8% -3.3 Pts 26 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2019 27 Seasonal Comparisons 31.7% 31.3% 27.3% 28.7% 30.4% 32.6% 37.5% 39.9% 44.7% 47.1% 47.2% 48.3% 47.1% 39.1% 39.7% 42.0% 40.6% 42.7% 43.6% 46.5% 48.7% 50.1% 48.8% 48.8% 0.67 0.80 0.69 0.68 0.75 0.76 0.86 0.86 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.99 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% '07 ('07/08 Winter) '08 ('08/09 Winter) '09 ('09/10 Winter) '10 ('10/11 Winter) '11 ('11/12 Winter) '12 ('12/13 Winter) '13 ('13/14 Winter) '14 ('14/15 Winter) '15 ('15/16 Winter) '16 ('16/17 Winter) '17 ('17/18 Winter) '18 ('17/18 Winter) Year Summer Aggregate Occupancy Winter Aggregate Occupancy Ratio: Summer to Winter Occupancy 28 Seasonal Comparisons $164 $164 $156 $157 $160 $165 $186 $193 $200 $214 $232 $237 $325 $301 $289 $294 $307 $318 $331 $352 $362 $373 $384 $384 0.50 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.57 0.60 0.62 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 $- $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 $300.00 $350.00 $400.00 '07 ('07/08 Winter) '08 ('08/09 Winter) '09 ('09/10 Winter) '10 ('10/11 Winter) '11 ('11/12 Winter) '12 ('12/13 Winter) '13 ('13/14 Winter) '14 ('14/15 Winter) '15 ('15/16 Winter) '16 ('16/17 Winter) '17 ('17/18 Winter) '18 ('17/18 Winter) Year Summer Aggregate ADR Winter Aggregate ADR Ratio: Summer to Winter ADR 29 Seasonal Comparisons $51 $51 $43 $45 $49 $54 $70 $77 $90 $103 $109 $114 $152 $118 $114 $123 $125 $136 $144 $164 $176 $187 $197 $197 0.33 0.43 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.48 0.47 0.51 0.55 0.55 0.58 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 $- $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 $225.00 '07 ('07/08 Winter) '08 ('08/09 Winter) '09 ('09/10 Winter) '10 ('10/11 Winter) '11 ('11/12 Winter) '12 ('12/13 Winter) '13 ('13/14 Winter) '14 ('14/15 Winter) '15 ('15/16 Winter) '16 ('16/17 Winter) '17 ('17/18 Winter) '18 ('17/18 Winter)Ratio: Summer to Winter ADR Year Summer Aggregate RevPAR Winter Aggregate RevPAR Ratio: Summer to Winter RevPAR Thank You!