HomeMy WebLinkAbout12. DestiMetrics 2020-07-21 Vail Town Council - TC_2Vail Town Council
July 21, 2020
Data as of June 30, 2020
Presented by Tom Foley
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Ongoing Look: Jobs, better but……
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Mar 7 July 16
Mar 7 July 16
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Economy
Dow Jones
Unemployment
Confidence
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Economy
Dow Jones:
25,595: -4.7% / 1,268 from June ‘19; -11.3% / 3,263 from Jan 1; +16.8% / 3,678 from Mar 1
Not indictative of Consumer Spending, Employment, GDP Projections
Wall St. is a reflection of Wall St.
Despite dramatic losses in late Feb and through March, remains oversold
+ /- Supporting Savings (+); Jobs (-); Oversold (-); Broad Swings (-); Trade (-) Globecon(-)
Consumer Confidence
98.1 Pts; Up from 85.7 in Apr, 85.9 in May; 3 Mo Avg = 2014
Lags More Current Indicators by 25 Days
Buying Power in the hands of Consumers = Rate Pressure / Revenue Pressure
+/- Recessionary levels (-); Unemployment (-); Inflation Issues (-); Trade (-); Consumer Prices (-); Gasoline Short Term (+); (---)
Unemployment Rate / Jobs
Unemployment 11.1%, down from 13.3% & 14.7% (May/Apr); Up from 3.6% January
Massive Job Losses; Current 1.3 million / week; 51.8 Mn since Mar 7
The only job certainty is uncertainty; increasingly volatile over time
+/- CARES Act Expiration (-); Multi-Sector Impacts (-); Trade (-); Wages (-); Inflation
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Avg Daily Net Bookings: All Arrival Dates, National
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Time Series: National Booking Lead Times
Seasonal Average Bookings: 57 Days
“CONFIDENCE WINDOW”
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Time Series: National Cancellation Lead Times
“CONCERN WINDOW”
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New & Re-bookings: 2 Extremes
“CONFIDENCE WINDOW”
NEW BOOKINGS ARRIVAL DATES
REBOOKING: NEW ARRIVAL DATES
“CONFIDENCE WINDOW”
UNCERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY
“CONFIDENCE WINDOW”
“CONFIDENCE WINDOW”
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Cancellations / Rebookings: Uncertainty
CANCELLATION ORIGINAL
ARRIVAL DATES
REBOOKING ORIGINAL
ARRIVAL DATES
UNCERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY
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Reports with data as of Sept 30, 2019 include:
27 Vail properties representing 2,193 units
57.7% of total community census
18 Western Destinations representing
198 properties and ~23,000 units
~59% of total regional industry census
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Vail Property Participation
Vail Seasonal Reservation Activity and Market Update
5/17/2011
Produced by MTRIP for Town of Vail. Not For Reproduction or Distribution. MTRIP LLC/303.722.7346/ info@mtrip.org ; www.mtrip.org
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Vail Occupancy
Summer To-Date
Industry
-1.3%
-6%
-1%
+0.2%
1.5 Pts
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Vail Occupancy
Summer 2020
Industry
-55.3%
Vail
-58.7%
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Vail ADR
Summer 2020
Industry
+6.1%
Vail
+7.7%
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Vail RevPAR
Summer 2020
Industry
-53.1%
Vail
-55.6%
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ADR by Week Booked and Arrival Month
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Vail Booking Pace
June 2020
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Vail Daily Occupancy Report
Summer 2020
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Vail Daily Occupancy Report
Next 180 Days
120 Days to “Parity”
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Performance Spectrum - Summer
31.4%
2.6%
15.6%
Vail 13.3%
$465
$128
$282
Vail $260
$96
$3
$44
Vail $35
Up 1.5% during 2015; Down -2.2% year over year & -4.8% from all-time high in Feb (18,312)
Aug, Sept, Nov: 1st YOY declines since May ‘12.
Positives: Federal Budget Funded; Strong Job Creation; Low Consumer Prices
Negatives: Global Market Crises; Inbound Trade/Travel; Oil Glut; Consumers Edgy
Considerations: Markets slowed dramatically in 2015 and are likely to remain unstable for much of 2016. Dollar is overly-strong creating travel export issues and holding investors at-bay.
China, China, China………
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Thank You!
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