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HomeMy WebLinkAbout12. DestiMetrics 2020-07-21 Vail Town Council - TC_2Vail Town Council July 21, 2020 Data as of June 30, 2020 Presented by Tom Foley 1 Ongoing Look: Jobs, better but…… 2 Mar 7 July 16 Mar 7 July 16 2 3 Economy Dow Jones Unemployment Confidence 3 4 Economy Dow Jones: 25,595: -4.7% / 1,268 from June ‘19; -11.3% / 3,263 from Jan 1; +16.8% / 3,678 from Mar 1 Not indictative of Consumer Spending, Employment, GDP Projections Wall St. is a reflection of Wall St. Despite dramatic losses in late Feb and through March, remains oversold + /- Supporting Savings (+); Jobs (-); Oversold (-); Broad Swings (-); Trade (-) Globecon(-) Consumer Confidence 98.1 Pts; Up from 85.7 in Apr, 85.9 in May; 3 Mo Avg = 2014 Lags More Current Indicators by 25 Days Buying Power in the hands of Consumers = Rate Pressure / Revenue Pressure +/- Recessionary levels (-); Unemployment (-); Inflation Issues (-); Trade (-); Consumer Prices (-); Gasoline Short Term (+); (---) Unemployment Rate / Jobs Unemployment 11.1%, down from 13.3% & 14.7% (May/Apr); Up from 3.6% January Massive Job Losses; Current 1.3 million / week; 51.8 Mn since Mar 7 The only job certainty is uncertainty; increasingly volatile over time +/- CARES Act Expiration (-); Multi-Sector Impacts (-); Trade (-); Wages (-); Inflation 4 Avg Daily Net Bookings: All Arrival Dates, National 5 Time Series: National Booking Lead Times Seasonal Average Bookings: 57 Days “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” 6 Time Series: National Cancellation Lead Times “CONCERN WINDOW” 7 New & Re-bookings: 2 Extremes “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” NEW BOOKINGS ARRIVAL DATES REBOOKING: NEW ARRIVAL DATES “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” 8 Cancellations / Rebookings: Uncertainty CANCELLATION ORIGINAL ARRIVAL DATES REBOOKING ORIGINAL ARRIVAL DATES UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY 9 Reports with data as of Sept 30, 2019 include: 27 Vail properties representing 2,193 units 57.7% of total community census 18 Western Destinations representing 198 properties and ~23,000 units ~59% of total regional industry census 10 Vail Property Participation Vail Seasonal Reservation Activity and Market Update 5/17/2011 Produced by MTRIP for Town of Vail. Not For Reproduction or Distribution. MTRIP LLC/303.722.7346/ info@mtrip.org ; www.mtrip.org 11 Vail Occupancy Summer To-Date Industry -1.3% -6% -1% +0.2% 1.5 Pts 11 12 Vail Occupancy Summer 2020 Industry -55.3% Vail -58.7% 12 13 Vail ADR Summer 2020 Industry +6.1% Vail +7.7% 13 14 Vail RevPAR Summer 2020 Industry -53.1% Vail -55.6% 14 ADR by Week Booked and Arrival Month 15 16 Vail Booking Pace June 2020 16 17 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2020 17 18 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Next 180 Days 120 Days to “Parity” 18 19 Performance Spectrum - Summer 31.4% 2.6% 15.6% Vail 13.3% $465 $128 $282 Vail $260 $96 $3 $44 Vail $35 Up 1.5% during 2015; Down -2.2% year over year & -4.8% from all-time high in Feb (18,312) Aug, Sept, Nov: 1st YOY declines since May ‘12. Positives: Federal Budget Funded; Strong Job Creation; Low Consumer Prices Negatives: Global Market Crises; Inbound Trade/Travel; Oil Glut; Consumers Edgy Considerations: Markets slowed dramatically in 2015 and are likely to remain unstable for much of 2016. Dollar is overly-strong creating travel export issues and holding investors at-bay. China, China, China……… 19 Thank You! 20