HomeMy WebLinkAbout14. West Vail Master Plan EPS Existing Conditions Draft 07-23-2020Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
The Economics of Land Use
730 17th Street, Suite 630 Denver, CO 80202
303.623.3557 www.epsys.com
WEST VAIL MASTER PLAN
Existing Conditions Initial Assessment:Demographics, Housing, & Economy
Prepared July 23, 2020
INITIAL FINDINGS
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|2
DEMOGRAPHICS
West Vail resident population 1,300: 20% of Town
853 housing units: 10% of Town
Second homes: less than half the concentration of Town
–28% of total in West Vail
–64% of total in all of Vail
–(all vacant units)
Demographics are similar to Town
–Median age: 35-37
–Median Income: $70,000-$75,000
–Owner/Renter: 55%/45%
Description West Vail Vail Eagle County
Population 1,293 6,168 59,307
Households 616 3,014 21,690
Avg. HH Size 2.10 2.05 2.73
Median Age 34.8 37.0 35.6
Median Income $74,727 $69,685 $78,095
Housing Units 853 7,478 32,844
Owner-Occupied 332 1,506 14,181
Percent 54%56%70%
Renter-Occupied 283 1,172 6,091
Percent 46%44%30%
Vacant Homes 237 4,800 12,572
% of Total 28%64%38%
Second Homes 201 4,168 10,308
As % of Vacant Units 85%87%82%
As % of all Units 24%56%31%
Source: ESRI; DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Copy of West Vail Demographic Variables CB.xlsx]T-Comparison
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HOUSING MARKET
Cheaper than the rest of Vail but still expensive
–West Vail $1.3M average
–Rest of Vail $3.4M average
Homes are smaller than rest of Town
–2,200 sq. ft. West Vail
–3,100 sq. ft. rest of Vail
More local buyers
–60% in West Vail
–24% rest of Vail
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Avg. Sale Price
Vail*West Vail Vail* Avg. 2019 West Vail Avg. 2019
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic & Planning Systems*Excludes West Vail
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HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Cost Burden: spending more than 30% of income on rent or mortgage payments
50% + of renters are cost burdened
30% of owners are cost burdened
–On average spending 17-20% of income on housing
–~$2,000/month
Typical to see more affordability issues among renters, especially in mountain communities
Town has extensive tools and policies to mitigate affordable housing demand
Description West Vail Vail
Cost Burden
Owners N/A 30%
Renters 55%51%
% with Mortgage 62%57%
Median Owner Costs
With Mortgage $2,000 $2,021
Without $800 $764
Median Owner Costs as a
% of Income 17%20%
Source: U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Housing Costs.xlsx]T-Summ
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|5
WEST VAIL ECONOMY
What do you need to make a town a Town?
–Grocery store(s)
–Hardware store
–Community-serving retail
–Auto service
–Restaurants for broader market
–Haircuts
–Professional services
–Home-based businesses
Approximately 11% of Town sales tax, but essential to livability
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MORE TO LEARN
Business outreach
–Identify issues, challenges that Plan can address
–Ideas on expanding number and variety of businesses
Resident outreach
–What else would you like to see in commercial area?
–Retail/F&B preferences survey
Future of West Vail commercial
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DISCUSSION
Potential economic and land use issues (current and future) in West Vail
West Vail Commercial
–Is a major redevelopment proposal inevitable?
–What is vision for commercial area?
Business mix
–What is missing?
–Could we draw in Vail Valley locals?
What business challenges are there?
–COVID-19
–Other?
What does workforce housing look like in West Vail?
DEMOGRAPHICS AND GROWTH TRENDS
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2010-2018 GROWTH TRENDS
Eagle County is adding:
–350 people/year
–189 housing units/year
Population -where:
–Gypsum: 31% share of growth
–Unincorporated including Edwards: 32% share of growth
–Vail: 6% share of growth
Housing –where:
–Gypsum: 20% share of growth
–Unincorporated/Edwards: 38% share of growth
–Vail: 16% share of growth
Takeaway
–Families live and are moving further down valley
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POPULATION
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population Vail Gypsum Eagle Avon
Source: DOLA;Economic & Planning Systems
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HOUSING UNITS
7,231 7,478
13,784 14,363
2,418 2,5813,615 3,6762,212 2,519
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Housing Units
Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems
Gypsum
Avon
Eagle
Unincoporated Areas
Vail
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|12
BUILDING PERMITS –UNITS, 2016-2020 YTD
Small amount of new construction in West Vail
Very little vacant land remaining
Smaller multifamily unit size in West Vail: 1,500 sq. ft. compared to 4,160 in rest of Town
Description 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Avg. Size
Single Family
West Vail 1 4 4 4 0 13 4,456
Other Vail 0 4 2 3 0 9 4,443
Total 1 8 6 7 0 22 4,451
Multifamily
West Vail 0 32 0 0 0 32 1,542
Other Vail 0 0 56 1 22 79 4,160
Total 0 32 56 1 22 111 2,414
Source: Town of Vail; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Building Permits.xlsx]T-Permits
2016-2020
HOUSING AND AFFORDABILITY INDICATORS
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COMMUTING
30 percent of workers commute more than 50 miles
Trend has not changed
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Less than 10 miles 10 to 24 miles 25 to 50 miles Greater than 50 miles
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BENEFITS OF RESIDENT HOUSING
•100 Units of workforce housing:
•Saves 95,000 gallons of gasoline•Reduce 2,200,000 miles traveled / year
•2.1 percent reduction of in-commuting
•CO2 reduction of 14,000 trees planted/year
Economic Value & Community Benefits of Resident Housing Investment in Vail (EPS 2018)
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AFFORDABILITY
Cost Burden: spending more than 30% of income on rent or mortgage payments
50% + of renters are cost burdened
30% of owners are cost burdened
–On average spending 17-20% of income on housing
–~$2,000/month
Typical to see more affordability issues among renters, especially in mountain communities
Description West Vail Vail
Cost Burden
Owners N/A 30%
Renters 55%51%
% with Mortgage 62%57%
Median Owner Costs
With Mortgage $2,000 $2,021
Without $800 $764
Median Owner Costs as a
% of Income 17%20%
Source: U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Housing Costs.xlsx]T-Summ
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WORKFORCE HOUSING INVENTORY (EHUs)
15% of all workforce housing units (EHUs) are in West Vail
Most recent project in West Vail was Chamonix –32 units
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1990s 2000s 2010s Total
Units West Vail Other Vail
Source: Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems
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VAIL HOUSING POLICIES
Housing IS Infrastructure
Housing Partners –use P3s and pursue local and regional solutions
Private Sector Importance –promote private sector investment to create deed restricted homes
Leverage financial strength –Use the Town’s financial strength and acumen to acquire deed restrictions
Break Down Barriers –Align land use regulations and codes, efficiently review projects…get to “yes”
Funding creates deed restrictions
People promote community –Provide opportunity to access Town’s housing programs
No Net Loss of deed restricted units
Keep up with demand –Inclusionary housing ordinance and commercial linkage fees
Funding is Policy –Town will fund housing
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VAIL HOUSING TOOLS
Ch. 23-24 of Town Code
Inclusionary Zoning
–10% of net new residential square feet provided as deed restricted employee housing
–No less than half mitigated on-site
–Fee-in-lieu $320.90 per net new sq. ft. mitigated
Commercial linkage
–Units or fee mitigating 20 percent of net new employees generated by commercial development
–For all new construction, no less than half mitigated on-site
–Fee-in-lieu $178,000 per employee mitigated
Vail InDeed
–Acquire deed restrictions on existing homes (pay owners to put a deed restriction on property)
–Resident employee restriction, no appreciation cap
–Average cost of $65,000 per deed restriction
–Capital projects fund: $2.5M transfer to Housing Funds in 2019
HOUSING MARKET
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ANNUAL AVG RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE, 2010-2020
West Vail is cheaper, but still expensive
Average Price 2019
–Vail (excl. WV): $3.4 million
–West Vail: $1.3 million
Annual Appreciation 2015-2019
–Vail (excl. WV): 9.2%
–West Vail: 6.7%
Low sales volume –average prices are volatile
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Annual Avg. Sale Price
Vail*West Vail Vail* Avg. 2019 West Vail Avg. 2019
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Excludes West Vail
59
40
78
61 68
59
82 84 86 79
19 11 13 14 20
11 10 10
52
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Annual Sales
Vail*West Vail
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Excludes West Vail
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PRICE DISTRIBUTION, 2015-2020
0.0%0.9%
7.5%
30.8%
15.9%
14.0%
21.5%
6.5%
2.8%1.5%2.4%1.5%2.9%
7.8%8.0%
36.1%
12.4%
27.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Less than
$250,000
$250,000 -
$350,000
$350,000 -
$450,000
$450,000 -
$600,000
$600,000 -
$800,000
$800,000 -
$1,000,000
$1,000,000 -
$2,000,000
$2,000,000 -
$3,000,000
Over $3 million
% Total
West Vail Town of Vail*
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Town of Vail exlcudes West Vail
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|23
RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE PER SQ. FT., 2015-2020
1.9%0.0%2.8%3.7%
34.6%
29.0%
10.3%
13.1%
3.7%0.9%3.9%0.5%1.2%3.7%3.7%
17.2%
19.9%
23.8%
6.9%
19.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Less than$200 $200 - $250 $250 - $300 $300 - $350 $350 - $400 $400 - $500 $500 - $600 $600 - $800 $800 -$1,000 Greater than$1,000
% Total
West Vail Town of Vail*
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems
*Town of Vail exlcudes West Vail
Avg. Unit Size
–West Vail: 2,200 sq. ft.
–Vail (excl. WV): 3,100 sq. ft.
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LOCAL VS. NONLOCAL HOME BUYERS, 2015-2020
Local: Owner address is in Eagle County
Local
59.8%
Non local
40.2%
West Vail
Home Buyers
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning System
Local
23.9%
Non local
76.1%
Town of Vail*
Home Buyers
Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Town of Vail exlcudes West Vail
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VAIL RESIDENTIAL SALES, 2019-2020
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
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KEY TAKEAWAYS –WEST VAIL
Small bed base –roughly 5 percent of Town
Sales tax growth
–Increase in lodging tax revenue
–Retail stable
–11% of Town total
About 10% of total jobs are in West Vail, less than 1,000
Non-tourism jobs: half of Town’s business services sector is in West Vail
West Vail largest number of home-based businesses
–“Catch all” category for businesses operating from a residence
–Most are construction and construction trades
Local’s services:
–2 Grocery Stores, hardware store, mechanic, barber shop, chain restaurants, gas stations
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BED BASE
Hotel rooms: 116
Short term rental units: 84
–Less than 5% of Town
STRs are dispersed throughout West Vail
Description Registrations Bedrooms Occupancy
West Vail 94 275 686
Percent of Vail 3.8%5.0%4.5%
Town of Vail 2,446 5,497 15,298
Source: Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[ShortTermRentals_WestVailStudy.xlsx]Sheet1
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TOWN OF VAIL SALES TAX -ANNUAL
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue
Source: Vail Business Review; Economic & Planning Systems
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SALES TAX –WEST VAIL BY TYPE
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue Retail Lodging Food & Beverage Other
Source: Vail Business Review; Economic& Planning Systems
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|31
SALES TAX -SEASONAL
Town-wide 61% of sales tax collected between December and March
COVID-19:
–47% decrease March 2019-March 2020
–Impact was less severe in West Vail
–Essential businesses
–More locals in West Vail
2019-2020
Description 2019 2020 % Change
February
Vail Total $4,137,089 $4,266,933 3.1%
March
Vail Total $4,244,716 $2,268,861 -46.5%
Vail Village $2,202,119 $997,735 -54.7%
W Vail/E Vail/Sandstone $617,234 $421,970 -31.6%
Source: Vail Business Review; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Stax Worksheet.xlsx]Table
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Share of Rev.
Source: VailBusiness Review;Economic& Planning Systems
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|32
JOB TRENDS
Job growth areas:
–Vail +1,160
–Avon +1,868
–Gypsum +988
–Eagle +870
–Edwards +354
Description 2010 % Total 2018 % Total Total % Capture
Avon/Beaver Creek 7,589 27.6%9,457 28.3%1,868 31%
Eagle 3,732 13.6%4,602 13.7%870 14%
Eagle-Vail 81 0.3%110 0.3%29 0%
Edwards 3,155 11.5%3,510 10.5%354 6%
Gypsum 1,488 5.4%2,477 7.4%988 16%
Minturn 406 1.5%485 1.4%79 1%
Red Cliff 81 0.3%110 0.3%29 0%
Vail 7,256 26.4%8,416 25.1%1,160 19%
Eagle County 27,457 100.0%33,474 100.0%6,017 100%
Source: QCEW; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[203028-Employment Trends v2.xlsx]T-Summary
2010-2018
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JOBS -VAIL
Vail has a total of 8,413 jobs
Vail Village has over half (55%) of all jobs in Vail
West Vail has a total of 729 jobs, or about 9% of all jobs in Vail
Lionshead
1,496
Vail Village
4,619
West Vail
729
Glen Lyon
384
Other
1,188
Jobs in Vail by Area
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|34
PERCENT OF JOBS BY INDUSTRY
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Lodging and Food Services
Retail
Admin. Support and Waste Mgmt
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Rec.
Construction
Real Estate and Rentals
Share of Jobs
West Vail
Vail Village
Eagle County
“Admin. Support and Waste Mgmt.” is a business-to-business services category, a non-tourism sector
Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|35
BUSINESS LICENSES
Non-tourism sectors in West Vail
26% Home Occupation businesses: generic classification for all home-based business
18% General Services
4% Professional
Fewer businesses than other areas, but different mix
State Business Type West Vail Vail Village Lionshead East Vail Vail Total
Accommodation Services 11 34 16 8 69
Athletic Club 0 1 2 0 3
Construction 3 2 1 1 7
Financial Service 1 4 0 0 5
Food and Beverage 12 62 20 1 95
General Service 17 19 19 1 56
Home Occupation 24 1 2 11 38
Professional 4 15 6 3 28
Real Estate 1 20 3 0 24
Retail 21 130 51 5 207Total9428812030532
Accommodation Services 12%12%13%27%13%
Athletic Club 0%0%2%0%1%
Construction 3%1%1%3%1%
Financial Service 1%1%0%0%1%
Food and Beverage 13%22%17%3%18%
General Service 18%7%16%3%11%
Home Occupation 26%0%2%37%7%
Professional 4%5%5%10%5%
Real Estate 1%7%3%0%5%
Retail 22%45%43%17%39%
Total 100%100%100%100%1
Source: Vail Business Review; Economic & Planning Systems
Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Business Licenses.xlsx]T-Summary