Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout06. New COVID matrix A NEW DIAL FOR Protect Our Neighbors, Safer at Home, & Stay at Home August 2020 DRAFT BACKGROUND The current framework: ➢A Colorado county can be in ○Stay at Home ○Safer at Home, or ○Protect Our Neighbors depending on the level of virus transmission in a community. ➢The goal of each phase is to protect public health while maximizing economic activity. ➢To contain the virus, we need to ensure that the level of openness is proportional to the level of public health system-readiness. ➢The current variance process recognizes that each county faces unique circumstances. We’ve heard from stakeholders that the process of recognizing local differences can be improved by: 1.Making the process more simple and predictable, and 2.Giving communities a clear tool that demonstrates what to expect, and when. PROCESS We convened a working focus-group comprised of: ➢LPHAs ➢County Commissioners ➢Mayors ➢City Managers ➢Hospitals ➢Business We studied best practiced being piloted, developed, and led by local Colorado communities. Now, we want your feedback to help improve the proposal. 1.You can give us your feedback on this form. 2.Public comments are due September 3, at noon. DRAFT PROPOSAL We would like to introduce a new dial that streamlines the process of opening/closing when counties qualify based on their metrics. ➢This dial represents a matrix that will add simplicity and predictability to how we open -- or close -- based on virus transmission levels. ➢It can be used by communities to implement locally-driven strategies to achieve the desired level. ➢By increasing simplicity and predictability, we can give local communities another tool to make life amidst the pandemic more sustainable. HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT LEVEL YOU ARE AT? Each county is at one of five levels, depending on metrics. Each level has an associated level of allowances and capacity restrictions. STAY AT HOME SEVERE SAFER AT HOME PROTECT OUR NEIGHBORS CAREFUL LEVEL 3 HIGH RISK LEVEL 2 CONCERN LEVEL 1 CAUTIOUS For counties that are seeing increasing virus levels and need to take action, but may not need to go into Stay at Home yet The baseline, Safer at Home public health order level For counties that have low virus levels but have not yet achieved Protect Our Neighbors WHAT ARE THE METRICS? What is it?Why is it important? New cases The 2-week incidence, per 100,000 population, helps us understand how much the virus is circulating in a community. This is the number of cases for every 100,000 people in the past two weeks. Percent positivity The percent positivity is defined as the percent of tests that come back positive, out of the total number of tests performed. The global standard to ensure that we are doing enough testing is a percent positivity of less than 5%. If the percent positivity is more than 5%, then it means that we are not doing enough testing to adequately describe or control the amount of disease transmission that is occurring. An environment of stable or declining hospitalizations One of our key goals is to ensure that every person who needs hospital care can receive it. This metric ensures that there is sufficient hospital capacity available. Stable is defined as no greater than a 25% increase in the county’s referral hospitals or no more than 2 new hospital admissions with COVID-19 on a single day, in the past 14 days. A stable or improving epi trend This allows us to understand if the trend is stable or improving. This is important because we want to ensure if a county moves to a more open state, it’s sustainable. No anticipated future transmission risk factors This is an important qualitative question to make sure that, in our best judgement, there are no future risk factors that may substantially worsen virus transmission in a community. For example, is there a holiday weekend coming up, or a major event planned in the community, that might change the situation? A certain number of Protect Our Neighbors metrics met The Protect Our Neighbor metrics measure the underlying systems readiness to expand further. To achieve Protect Our Neighbors, all 8 metrics must be met. To achieve Green/Level 1, at least 4 metrics must be met. WHAT ARE THE METRICS? LEVEL Stay At Home SAFER AT HOME Protect Our NeighborsLevel 3 Level 2 Level 1 New cases 350+/100,000 2-week incidence 175-350/100,000 2-week incidence 75-175/100,000 2-week incidence 0-75/100,000 2-week incidence 0-25/100,000 2-week incidence Percent positivity No limit No greater than 15%No greater than 10%No greater than 5%5% Stable or declining hospitalizations Increasing Increasing Stable or declining Stable or declining Stable or declining A stable or improving epi trend Worsening Worsening Stable or improving Stable or improving Stable or improving No anticipated future transmission risk factors Yes, no, or uncertain Yes, no, or uncertain Yes, no, or uncertain No No A certain # of Protect Our Neighbors Metrics Met No requirement No requirement No requirement At least 4 metrics met All 8 PON metrics met HOW DO YOU MOVE BETWEEN LEVELS? PROTECT OUR NEIGHBORS CAREFUL LEVEL 1 CAUTIOUS LEVEL 2 CONCERN LEVEL 3 HIGH RISK STAY AT HOME SEVERE SAFER AT HOME To move to a LESS restrictive level... A county must meet ALL of the metrics of the more open level for a 2-week period. Then, a county is eligible to move into that level, if they would like to do so. Similar to the existing variance process, a county that is eligible and would like to move to a more open state should notify CDPHE by letter signed by local public health, local elected officials, and local hospitals. ➢This starts a 2 week grace period to regain compliance on that metric. ●If within 2 weeks compliance is regained, no further action is needed. ➢If at the end of 2 weeks, compliance is not regained, the county participates in a consultation with CDPHE. ●This is an opportunity to discuss their local control strategies and circumstances. ●CDPHE may offer a 2 week extension to continue local efforts to stem transmission, request that modifications to local actions be made, or require the county to move to a more restrictive level. ➢This consultation process ensures that local conditions and unique factors are taken into account, in a collaborative state/local process before any further restrictions are put place. ●When local control efforts are stemming transmission, they will be supported by the state. HOW DO YOU MOVE BETWEEN LEVELS? To move to a MORE restrictive level... A process begins when a county falls out of compliance on any of the metrics that define their level. PROTECT OUR NEIGHBORS CAREFUL LEVEL 1 CAUTIOUS LEVEL 2 CONCERN LEVEL 3 HIGH RISK STAY AT HOME SEVERE SAFER AT HOME STAY AT HOME SAFER AT HOME PROTECT OUR NEIGHBORSLEVEL 3 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 1 P-12 Schools Remote Remote suggested In person, hybrid, or remote suggested In person, hybrid, or remote suggested In person suggested Community and Technical Schools Limited in person Limited in person or remote Hybrid or Remote In person or Hybrid In person 4 Year Colleges Remote Remote Hybrid or Remote In person or Hybrid In person Variances Not eligible Not eligible Not eligible Eligible for site-specific variances if approved by LPHA N/A Places of Worship Remote or virtual service 25%, 50 50%, 50 (100 with calculator)50%, 175 indoors 50%*, 500 Restaurants Take out or delivery only 25%, 50 6ft between parties outdoors, per local zoning 50%, 50 (100 with calculator) 6ft between parties outdoors, per local zoning 50%, 175 indoors 6ft between parties outdoors, per local zoning 50%, 500 Offices Remote only 25%50%,50%50%, 500 Bars Closed Closed Closed Closed 50%, 500 Gyms/Fitness Virtual, or outdoors in groups less than 10 Virtual, or outdoors in groups less than 10 25%, 50 25%, 75 50%, 500 Group Sports Virtual, or outdoors in groups less than 10 Virtual, or outdoors in groups less than 10 25 person cap per activity 50 person cap per activity 50%, 500 Retail Curbside pick up and online only 25%50%50%50%, 500 Personal Services Closed 25 50%, 50 50%, 50 50%, 500 Indoor Events Closed 25 100 person cap (with calculator)175 person cap 50%, 500 Outdoor Events Closed 75 175 person cap (with calculator)250 person cap 50%, 500 Senior Facilities Closed except for compassionate visitation Closed except for compassionate visitation Outdoor and compassionate visitation, indoor under limited circumstances Outdoor and compassionate visitation, indoor under limited circumstances Outdoor and compassionate visitation, indoor under limited circumstances Outdoor Recreation Travel restricted to own county 25%, 10 50%, 10 50%, 25 50%, 500 *Protect Our Neighbors starts at 50%. Every 4 weeks the status is maintained, a county may increase capacity by 5%. While 500 is the maximum cap for any activity, local authorities set their own guidelines under this cap. WHAT HAPPENS TO VARIANCES? The dial streamlines the variance process for qualifying counties. CURRENTLY WITH THE NEW DIAL Counties with a 2 week incidence of 0-50/100,000 can qualify for a variance. Expands eligibility to 75/100,000 and expands indoor gathering sizes to 175 without having to use the social distancing calculator. SITE-SPECIFIC VARIANCES ➢To achieve a site-specific variance for a unique facility, a county may work with their LPHA to submit a site-specific variance request. ➢CDPHE will put out specific guidelines to specify what may qualify under a site-specific variance.