HomeMy WebLinkAbout06. New COVID matrix A NEW DIAL FOR
Protect Our Neighbors,
Safer at Home,
& Stay at Home
August 2020
DRAFT
BACKGROUND
The current framework:
➢A Colorado county can be in
○Stay at Home
○Safer at Home, or
○Protect Our Neighbors depending on the level of virus transmission in a community.
➢The goal of each phase is to protect public health while maximizing economic activity.
➢To contain the virus, we need to ensure that the level of openness is proportional to the level
of public health system-readiness.
➢The current variance process recognizes that each county faces unique circumstances.
We’ve heard from stakeholders that the process of recognizing local differences can be
improved by:
1.Making the process more simple and predictable, and
2.Giving communities a clear tool that demonstrates what to expect, and when.
PROCESS
We convened a working focus-group comprised of:
➢LPHAs
➢County Commissioners
➢Mayors
➢City Managers
➢Hospitals
➢Business
We studied best practiced being piloted, developed, and led by local Colorado
communities.
Now, we want your feedback to help improve the proposal.
1.You can give us your feedback on this form.
2.Public comments are due September 3, at noon.
DRAFT PROPOSAL
We would like to introduce a new
dial that streamlines the process
of opening/closing when counties
qualify based on their metrics.
➢This dial represents a matrix that will add simplicity and predictability
to how we open -- or close -- based on virus transmission levels.
➢It can be used by communities to implement locally-driven strategies to
achieve the desired level.
➢By increasing simplicity and predictability, we can give local communities
another tool to make life amidst the pandemic more sustainable.
HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT LEVEL YOU ARE AT?
Each county is at one of five levels, depending on metrics.
Each level has an associated level of allowances and capacity restrictions.
STAY AT
HOME
SEVERE
SAFER AT HOME
PROTECT
OUR
NEIGHBORS
CAREFUL
LEVEL 3
HIGH RISK
LEVEL 2
CONCERN
LEVEL 1
CAUTIOUS
For counties that are
seeing increasing
virus levels and
need to take action,
but may not need to
go into Stay at Home
yet
The baseline,
Safer at Home
public health order
level
For counties that
have low virus
levels but have not
yet achieved
Protect Our
Neighbors
WHAT ARE THE METRICS?
What is it?Why is it important?
New cases The 2-week incidence, per 100,000 population, helps us understand how much the virus is circulating in a community.
This is the number of cases for every 100,000 people in the past two weeks.
Percent positivity
The percent positivity is defined as the percent of tests that come back positive, out of the total number of tests
performed. The global standard to ensure that we are doing enough testing is a percent positivity of less than 5%. If
the percent positivity is more than 5%, then it means that we are not doing enough testing to adequately describe or
control the amount of disease transmission that is occurring.
An environment of stable
or declining
hospitalizations
One of our key goals is to ensure that every person who needs hospital care can receive it. This metric ensures that
there is sufficient hospital capacity available. Stable is defined as no greater than a 25% increase in the county’s
referral hospitals or no more than 2 new hospital admissions with COVID-19 on a single day, in the past 14 days.
A stable or improving epi
trend
This allows us to understand if the trend is stable or improving. This is important because we want to ensure if a
county moves to a more open state, it’s sustainable.
No anticipated future
transmission risk factors
This is an important qualitative question to make sure that, in our best judgement, there are no future risk factors
that may substantially worsen virus transmission in a community. For example, is there a holiday weekend coming up,
or a major event planned in the community, that might change the situation?
A certain number of
Protect Our Neighbors
metrics met
The Protect Our Neighbor metrics measure the underlying systems readiness to expand further. To achieve Protect Our
Neighbors, all 8 metrics must be met. To achieve Green/Level 1, at least 4 metrics must be met.
WHAT ARE THE METRICS?
LEVEL Stay At Home
SAFER AT HOME Protect Our
NeighborsLevel 3 Level 2 Level 1
New cases 350+/100,000
2-week incidence
175-350/100,000
2-week incidence
75-175/100,000
2-week incidence
0-75/100,000
2-week incidence
0-25/100,000
2-week incidence
Percent positivity No limit No greater than 15%No greater than 10%No greater than 5%5%
Stable or declining
hospitalizations Increasing Increasing Stable or declining Stable or declining Stable or declining
A stable or improving
epi trend Worsening Worsening Stable or improving Stable or improving Stable or improving
No anticipated
future transmission
risk factors
Yes, no,
or uncertain
Yes, no,
or uncertain
Yes, no,
or uncertain No No
A certain # of
Protect Our
Neighbors Metrics
Met
No requirement No requirement No requirement At least 4 metrics
met
All 8 PON metrics
met
HOW DO YOU MOVE BETWEEN LEVELS?
PROTECT
OUR
NEIGHBORS
CAREFUL
LEVEL 1
CAUTIOUS
LEVEL 2
CONCERN
LEVEL 3
HIGH RISK
STAY AT
HOME
SEVERE
SAFER AT HOME
To move to a LESS restrictive level...
A county must meet ALL of the metrics of the more open
level for a 2-week period.
Then, a county is eligible to move into that level, if they
would like to do so.
Similar to the existing variance process, a county that is
eligible and would like to move to a more open state
should notify CDPHE by letter signed by local public
health, local elected officials, and local hospitals.
➢This starts a 2 week grace period to regain compliance on that metric.
●If within 2 weeks compliance is regained, no further action is needed.
➢If at the end of 2 weeks, compliance is not regained, the county participates in a consultation with CDPHE.
●This is an opportunity to discuss their local control strategies and circumstances.
●CDPHE may offer a 2 week extension to continue local efforts to stem transmission, request that
modifications to local actions be made, or require the county to move to a more restrictive level.
➢This consultation process ensures that local conditions and unique factors are taken into account, in a
collaborative state/local process before any further restrictions are put place.
●When local control efforts are stemming transmission, they will be supported by the state.
HOW DO YOU MOVE BETWEEN LEVELS?
To move to a MORE restrictive level...
A process begins when a county falls out of compliance on
any of the metrics that define their level.
PROTECT
OUR
NEIGHBORS
CAREFUL
LEVEL 1
CAUTIOUS
LEVEL 2
CONCERN
LEVEL 3
HIGH RISK
STAY AT
HOME
SEVERE
SAFER AT HOME
STAY AT HOME SAFER AT HOME PROTECT OUR
NEIGHBORSLEVEL 3 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 1
P-12 Schools Remote Remote suggested In person, hybrid, or remote
suggested
In person, hybrid, or remote
suggested In person suggested
Community and
Technical Schools Limited in person Limited in person or remote Hybrid or Remote In person or Hybrid In person
4 Year Colleges Remote Remote Hybrid or Remote In person or Hybrid In person
Variances Not eligible Not eligible Not eligible Eligible for site-specific
variances if approved by LPHA N/A
Places of Worship Remote or virtual service 25%, 50 50%, 50 (100 with calculator)50%, 175 indoors 50%*, 500
Restaurants Take out or delivery only
25%, 50
6ft between parties outdoors, per local
zoning
50%, 50 (100 with calculator)
6ft between parties outdoors, per local
zoning
50%, 175 indoors
6ft between parties outdoors, per local
zoning
50%, 500
Offices Remote only 25%50%,50%50%, 500
Bars Closed Closed Closed Closed 50%, 500
Gyms/Fitness Virtual, or outdoors in groups
less than 10
Virtual, or outdoors in groups
less than 10 25%, 50 25%, 75 50%, 500
Group Sports Virtual, or outdoors in groups
less than 10
Virtual, or outdoors in groups
less than 10 25 person cap per activity 50 person cap per activity 50%, 500
Retail Curbside pick up and online only 25%50%50%50%, 500
Personal Services Closed 25 50%, 50 50%, 50 50%, 500
Indoor Events Closed 25 100 person cap (with calculator)175 person cap 50%, 500
Outdoor Events Closed 75 175 person cap (with calculator)250 person cap 50%, 500
Senior Facilities Closed except for compassionate
visitation
Closed except for compassionate
visitation
Outdoor and compassionate
visitation, indoor under limited
circumstances
Outdoor and compassionate
visitation, indoor under limited
circumstances
Outdoor and compassionate
visitation, indoor under limited
circumstances
Outdoor Recreation Travel restricted to own county 25%, 10 50%, 10 50%, 25 50%, 500
*Protect Our Neighbors starts at 50%. Every 4 weeks the status is maintained, a county may increase capacity by 5%.
While 500 is the maximum cap for any activity, local authorities set their own guidelines under this cap.
WHAT HAPPENS TO VARIANCES?
The dial streamlines the variance process for qualifying counties.
CURRENTLY WITH THE NEW DIAL
Counties with a 2 week incidence of
0-50/100,000 can qualify for a variance.
Expands eligibility to 75/100,000
and expands indoor gathering sizes to 175
without having to use the social distancing
calculator.
SITE-SPECIFIC VARIANCES
➢To achieve a site-specific variance for a unique facility, a county may work with
their LPHA to submit a site-specific variance request.
➢CDPHE will put out specific guidelines to specify what may qualify under a
site-specific variance.