HomeMy WebLinkAbout06. Vail_Production_Notes_08-31-2021Copyright (c) 2021, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 08/31/2021
Vail Production Notes
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes:
➢ All months are showing an increase in inventory compared to last year at this time
o August: +1,668 RNA or +54 units per day
o September: +1,830 RNA or +61 units per day
o October: +1,462 RNA or +47 units per day
o November: +2,076 RNA or +69 units per day
o December: +2,314 RNA or +75 units per day
o January: +1,932 RNA or +62 units per day
o February: +1,806 RNA or +65 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy (25.7%) is up +96.8% (+98.4% last month) over last year (13.1%), while historic actual
occupancy (47.4%) is up +99.4% (+71.2% last month) over last year (23.8%)
➢ On the books ADR ($514) is up +17.6% (+13.2% last month) over last year ($437), while historic actual ADR
($377) is up +12.0% (-11.2% last month) over last year ($337)
➢ On the books RevPAR ($132) is up +131.4% (+124.6% last month) over last year ($57), while historic actual
RevPAR ($179) is up +123.3% (+52.0% last month) over last year ($80)
Summer Season:
➢ August gained +3.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in August
o Bookings made in August for August are down -11% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
August for August
➢ September gained +7.3% as an absolute measure of occupancy in August
o Bookings made in August for September are down -7.3% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
August for September
➢ October gained +3.5% as an absolute measure of occupancy in August
o Bookings made in August for October are up +1.0% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
August for October
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($130), summer season is up +102.0% (+141.6% last report) compared to last year at
this time ($64)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($315), summer season is up +17.9% (+16.8% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($267)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (41.3%), summer season is up +71.3% (+106.8% last report) compared to last year
at this time (24.1%)
➢ All months are experiencing occupancy gains over last summer season
➢ All months are experiencing ADR gains over last summer season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there are 453,495 room nights available, a +1.2% (-0.6% last report)
decrease over last summer season (448,162)
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➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there are 187,200 room nights booked, a +73.4% (+105.5% last report)
increase over last summer season (107,990)
Winter Season:
➢ November gained +3.1% as an absolute measure of occupancy in August
o Bookings made in August for November are up +0.3% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
August for November
➢ December gained +8.0% as an absolute measure of occupancy in August
o Bookings made in August for December are up +4.7% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
August for December
➢ January gained +10.7% as an absolute measure of occupancy in August
o Bookings made in August for January are up +8.6% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
August for January
➢ February has just come on the books and is showing 27.0% occupancy, up +118.9% over last year (12.3%)
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($156), winter season is up +143.4% (+116.7% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($64)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($653), winter season is up +14.7% (+13.0% last report) compared to last year at this time
($569)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (23.8%), winter season is up +112.2% (+91.8% last report) compared to last year at
this time (11.2%)
➢ All months are experiencing an occupancy gain over last winter season
➢ All months are experiencing an ADR gain over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there are 293,402 room nights available, a +2.9% (-0.2% last report)
increase over last winter season (285,032)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there are 69,973 room nights booked, a +118.4% (+91.4% last report)
increase over last winter season (32,038)
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DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Average Daily Performance for the current month and upcoming 6, August 1st, 2021 to February 28th, 2022 has
increased since last report, and is currently up +13.8% (+12.5% last report) compared to last year
➢ Room Nights Booked (RNB) for the current month and upcoming 6, August 1st, 2021 to February 28th, 2022 total
188,862, and are currently up +70,984, or +60.2%, (+70,601 or +70.7% last report) compared to last year at this
time (117,878)
➢ Since the last report (08/15), bookings activity for August 1st through February 28th, 2022 has yielded a net of
+18,426 or 18,426 new bookings. This level of net booking activity has increased +48.5% (-38.9% last report)
from the last report (+12,408)
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
➢ New booking’s arrival date distribution of the total +18,426 (12,408 last report) added since last report:
o August: +484 (+2,123 last report) or +2.6% (+17.2% last report)
o September: +2,908 (+2,883 last report) or +15.8% (+23.2% last report)
o October: +1,815 (+1,338 last report) or +9.9% (+10.8% last report)
o November: +1,293 (+1,192 last report) or +7.0% (+9.6% last report)
o December: +3,156 (+2,909 last report) or +17.1% (+23.4% last report)
o January: +5,084 (+1,963 last report) or +27.6% (+15.8% last report)
o February: +3,686 or +20.0%
➢ Since the last report, 08/15, there has been an increase, +48.5%, in net new bookings following a decrease, -38.9%,
last report. New behavior was noticed in the most recent round of net new bookings as August contributed very
little to the total (2.6%), changing the trend of short lead bookings holding a substantial share. January and February
held the largest shares of net new bookings, +27.6% and +20.0% respectively, as consumer booking preference
continues to shift towards the winter months. December was a close third in share of net new bookings (+17.1%),
additionally December – February makes up 64.7% of the total net new bookings since last report. October and
November continue to hold relatively small shares of net new bookings, with small variations from patterns noted
over the last few reports. September netted a fairly large share of net new bookings, and interestingly 70.2% of the
net new bookings for the month have arrival dates before the 14th. As covid variants stoke fears and cautionary
responses, bookings experienced a collective net reduction of -764 across all arrival dates, and while the number is
very small compared to the amount of net new bookings being made, it does stick out as a change from prior trends.
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August
➢ Following a decrease in the amount of net new bookings last report, August has experienced a massive
reduction in net new bookings, and coupled with an increase in short lead bookings last year, average daily
performance has dropped to +10.7% (+14.3% last report)
o There are +6,135 (+12,419 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +484 (+2,123 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 29th, with +131 bookings
added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 14th, with -71 bookings
cancelled
o The largest outperformance is on the 21st, up +21.7% (+31.6% last report) over last year at this time
o There are no days underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
September
➢ September netted an increase in net new bookings compared to last report, but like August, an increase in short
lead bookings last year and pushed the average daily performance for the month down to +16.8% (+20.9% last
report)
o There are +12,328 (+16,296 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,908 (+2,883 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 4th, with +285 bookings
added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 30th with -90 cancellations
o The largest outperformance was on the 17th, up +31.8% (+39.2% last report), and has shifted to the 30th,
up +34.8% over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
October
➢ October experienced an increase in net new bookings since last report, and coupled with an increase year over
year bookings outperformance, average daily performance has increased further to +10.7% (+8.3% last report)
o There are +7,964 (+6,675 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,815 (+1,338 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance is on the 1st, up +48.6% (+33.0% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 1st, with +368 bookings added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on both the 28th and 31st, with -7
cancellations
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
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November
➢ November has experienced a slight improvement in net new bookings compared to last report, an increase of
+101, though the year over year bookings outperformance has increased, leading to an increase in average daily
performance to +3.8% (+3.3% last report)
o There are +2,753 (+2,624 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,293 (+1,192 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 25th, with +125 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 2nd, up +15.5% (+14.7% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 16th, down -0.4% (-1.3% last report), and has now shifted to
the 6th, down -1.0% over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
December
➢ Net new bookings have contributed further improvement to December’s strong booking pace as year over year
bookings outperformance has grown further leading to an increase in average daily performance to +18.0%
(+14.5% last report)
o There are +14,075 (+11,828 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,156 (+2,909 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 28th, with +200 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 29th, up +35.9% (+30.8% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
January
➢ After a fairly small addition last report, January has added roughly 4x the amount of net new bookings, further
improving year over year bookings outperformance as well as average daily performance to +17.9% (+12.2% last
report)
o There are +13,992 (+9,948 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +5,084 (+1,963 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 29th, with +435 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 1st, up +33.0% (+28.1% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
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February
➢ February’s outperformance over last year continues to grow with a strong addition of net new bookings, leading
to a large increase in average daily performance to +18.7% (+14.3% last report)
o There are +12,771 (+10,115 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,686 bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance is on the 20th, up +29.8% (+26.1% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time