HomeMy WebLinkAbout13. Vail_Production_Notes_09-30-2021Copyright (c) 2021, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 09/30/2021
Vail Production Notes
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes:
➢ September through November are showing an increase in inventory, while December through March are
showing a decrease in inventory, compared to last year at this time
o September: +41 RNA or +1 units per day
o October: +971 RNA or +31 units per day
o November: +107 RNA or +4 units per day
o December: -1,051 RNA or -34 units per day
o January: -1,600 RNA or -54 units per day
o February: -825 RNA or -29 units per day
o March: -2,370 RNA or -76 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy (29.3%) is up +79.7% (+96.8% last month) over last year (16.3%), while historic actual
occupancy (44.2%) is up +76.2% (+99.4% last month) over last year (25.1%)
➢ On the books ADR ($582) is up +28.3% (+17.6% last month) over last year ($454), while historic actual ADR
($319) is up +21.0% (+12.0% last month) over last year ($263)
➢ On the books RevPAR ($170) is up +130.5% (+131.4% last month) over last year ($74), while historic actual
RevPAR ($141) is up +113.3% (+123.3% last month) over last year ($66)
Summer Season:
➢ September gained +6.8% as an absolute measure of occupancy in September
o Bookings made in September for September are down -7.3% in absolute variance vs those made last
year in September for September
➢ October gained +9.8% as an absolute measure of occupancy in September
o Bookings made in September for October are down -2.0% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
September for October
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($137), summer season is up +84.6% (+102.0% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($74)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($311), summer season is up +18.7% (+17.8% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($262)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (44.0%), summer season is up +55.6% (+71.3% last report) compared to last year at
this time (28.3%)
➢ All months are experiencing occupancy gains over last summer season
➢ All months are experiencing ADR gains over last summer season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there are 455,955 room nights available, a -0.01% (+1.2% last report)
decrease over last summer season (455,997)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there are 200,636 room nights booked, a +55.6% (+73.4% last report)
increase over last summer season (128,983)
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Winter Season:
➢ November gained +7.3% as an absolute measure of occupancy in September
o Bookings made in September for November are up +1.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
September for November
➢ December gained +10.4% as an absolute measure of occupancy in September
o Bookings made in September for December are up +1.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
September for December
➢ January gained +3.6% as an absolute measure of occupancy in September
o Bookings made in September for January are up +2.1% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
September for January
➢ February gained +7.7% as an absolute measure of occupancy in September
o Bookings made in September for February are up +3.1% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
September for February
➢ March has just come on the books and is showing 24.2% occupancy, up +99.1% over last year (12.1%)
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($191), winter season is up +141.7% (+143.4% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($79)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($643), winter season is up +27.3% (+14.7% last report) compared to last year at this time
($505)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (29.6%), winter season is up +89.8% (+112.2% last report) compared to last year at
this time (15.6%)
➢ All months are experiencing an occupancy gain over last winter season
➢ All months are experiencing an ADR gain over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there are 366,835 room nights available, a -1.6% (+2.92% last report)
decrease over last winter season (372,634)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there are 108,645 room nights booked, a +86.9% (+118.4% last report)
increase over last winter season (58,144)
(This area is intentional left blank)
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DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Average Daily Performance for the current month and upcoming 6, September 1st, 2021 to March 31st, 2022 has
increased since last report, and is currently up +13.0% (+12.3% last report) compared to last year
➢ Room Nights Booked (RNB) for the current month and upcoming 6, September 1st, 2021 to March 31st, 2022
total 207,069, and are currently up +74,056, or +55.7%, (+61,639 or +56.1% last report) compared to last year at
this time (133,013)
➢ Since the last report (09/15), bookings activity for September 1st through March 31st, 2022 has yielded a net of
+35,453 or 35,453 new bookings. This level of net booking activity has increased +136.3% (-18.6% last report)
from the last report (+15,004)
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
➢ New booking’s arrival date distribution of the total +35,453 (15,004 last report) added since last report:
o September: +5,003 (+3,735 last report) or +14.1% (+24.9% last report)
o October: +5,783 (+2,637 last report) or +16.3% (+17.6% last report)
o November: +3,839 (+1,983 last report) or +10.8% (+13.2% last report)
o December: +6,369 (+3,090 last report) or +18.0% (+20.6% last report)
o January: +4,500 (+1,603 last report) or +12.7% (+10.7% last report)
o February: +5,347 (+1,956 last report) or +15.1% (+13.0% last report)
o March: +4,612 or +13.0%
➢ Since the last report, 09/15, there has been an increase, +136.3%, in net new bookings following a decrease, -18.6%,
the prior report. While most prior reports had shown one month clearly leading in consumer booking choice, a
different behavior has been noted this time around as no particular month saw more than 20% of the net new
bookings. Leading the pack was December, with a lofty +6,369 net new bookings, or +18.0% of the total, a 106.1%
increase from last month. While December bookings gain had been attributed to mostly holiday period bookings in
prior reports, the weekly distribution was much more even this report, and furthermore no day saw less than +79
bookings gained. October netted the second most new bookings, with +5,783 or +16.3% of the total, a +119.3%
increase from last report. February saw the largest report over report increase in net new bookings as +173.4%
more bookings were added for the month than last report. Overall, all months included in the report saw large gains
in net new bookings since last report as consumers are heavily anticipating the upcoming winter season. Barring
unforeseen changes in public health mandates and ordinances, the season is primed for a large outperformance
compared to last year as the average daily performance for all dates from November 1st to March 31st is currently up
+15.2%.
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September
➢ September has experienced an increase in net new bookings added since last report, though the year over year
bookings underperformance remains, and has led to the month closing with an average daily performance of
+7.3% (+11.0% last report)
o There are +5,396 (+7,692 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +5,003 (+3,735 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 25th, with +412 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 30th, up +18.5% (+25.7% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 19th, down -5.1% (-2.5% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
October
➢ October continues to add large numbers of net new bookings, more than twice as many since last report, which
has created a slight year over year bookings outperformance though average daily performance has fallen
slightly to +8.0% (+9.2% last report)
o There are +6,880 (+6,763 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +5,783 (+2,637 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance is on the 1st, up +26.8% (+36.5% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o The largest net addition in bookings, since last report, occurred on the 2nd, with +436 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o Inventory is higher compared to last year at this time
November
➢ November has experienced a strong improvement in net new bookings compared to last report, further
boosting year over year bookings outperformance, and improving average daily performance to +4.4% (+3.7%
last report)
o There are +3,692 (+2,621 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,839 (+1,983 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 6th, with +354 bookings
added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 1st, with -140 cancellations
o The largest outperformance was on the 2nd, up +8.0% (+15.8% last report), and has shifted to the 12th,
up +12.8% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 6th, up +9.0% (-1.1% last report), and has shifted to the 9th,
down -0.2% over last year at this time
o Inventory is higher compared to last year at this time
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December
➢ While a net new bookings increase had been noted for the last 3 reports, since last reporting period almost 2x
the amount of net new bookings were added, leading December back into a year over year bookings
outperformance and increasing average daily performance slightly up to +15.3% (+15.2% last report)
o There are +12,925 (+11,060 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +6,369 (+3,090 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 20th, with +311 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 29th, up +31.7% (+31.4% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is higher than last year at this time
January
➢ After a large decrease in net new bookings last report, roughly 3x the amount of net new bookings were made,
increasing the year over year bookings outperformance and further bolstering average daily performance with
an increase to +19.1% (+16.0% last report)
o There are +15,817 (+11,755 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +4,500 (+1,603 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 1st, with +283 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 1st, up +32.3% (+29.0% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
February
➢ After a substantial increase in net new bookings for February the year over year bookings outperformance has
experienced a healthy increase in addition to average daily performance increasing further to +22.2% (+19.0%
last report)
o There are +16,628 (+12,644 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +5,347 (+1,956 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 20th, with +245 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 20th, up +37.6% (+32.1% last report) over last year at this time
o No days are underperforming last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
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March
➢ March has experienced a large increase in net new bookings, further bolstering a year over year bookings
outperformance and increasing average daily performance to +15.2% (+12.2% last report)
o There are +12,214 (+8,662 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +4,612 bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 4th, with +278 bookings
added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance was on the 2nd, up +30.5% (+28.3% last report), and has shifted to the 1st, up
+30.8% over last year at this time
o The only underperformance is on the 30th, down -2.2% (-2.2% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time