HomeMy WebLinkAbout08. Vail Production Notes through 2020-12-31Copyright (c) 2021, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 12/31/2020
Vail Production Notes
RAO PRODUCTION NOTES:
General RAO Notes:
➢ 2 of the 7 months analyzed, December, and February, are showing a decrease in inventory compared to last year
at this time
o December: -223 RNA or -7 units per day
o January: +208 RNA or +7 units per day
o February: -2,046 RNA or -73 units per day
o March: +454 RNA or +15 units per day
o April: +1,069 RNA or +36 units per day
o May: +3,555 RNA or +115 units per day
o June: +5,178 RNA or +173 units per day
➢ On the books occupancy (16.5%) is down -46.4% (-43.2% last month) over last year (30.9%), while historic actual
occupancy (39.2%) is also down -17.0% (-26.8% last month) over last year (47.2%)
➢ On the books ADR ($504) is down -6.9% (-5.1% last month) over last year ($541), while historic actual ADR
($320) is down -0.9% (+7.9% last month) over last year ($323)
➢ On the books RevPAR ($83) is down -46.1% (-46.1% last month) over last year ($167), while historic actual
RevPAR ($125) is also down -17.7% (-21.0% last month) over last year ($153)
Winter Season:
➢ December gained +8.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in December
o Bookings made in December for December are up +0.7% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
December for December
➢ January gained +11.4% as an absolute measure of occupancy in December
o Bookings made in December for January are down -0.6% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
December for January
➢ February gained +6.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in December
o Bookings made in December for February are down -2.3% in absolute variance vs those made last year
in December for February
➢ March gained +4.2% as an absolute measure of occupancy in December
o Bookings made in December for March are down -1.9% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
December for March
➢ April gained +0.9% as an absolute measure of occupancy in December
o Bookings made in December for April are down -1.0% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
December for April
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($134), winter season is down -41.5% (-42.9% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($228)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($499), winter season is down -9.9% (-7.2% last report) compared to last year at this time
($553)
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➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (26.8%), winter season is down -35.1% (-38.5% last report) compared to last year at
this time (41.3%)
➢ No months show an occupancy gain over last winter season
➢ November and April show ADR gains over last winter season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire winter season there are 464,510 room nights available, a -0.5% (-1.1% last report)
decrease over last winter season (466,742)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire winter season there are 124,542 room nights booked, a -35.4% (-39.1% last report)
decrease over last winter season (192,681)
Summer Season:
➢ May gained 0% as an absolute measure of occupancy in December
o Bookings made in December for May are down -0.4% in absolute variance vs those made last year in
December for May
➢ June has just come on the books and is showing 7.5% occupancy, down -50.9% over last year (15.3%)
➢ As a measure of RevPAR, ($12), summer season is down -45.6% (-44.6% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($22)
➢ As a measure of ADR, ($246), summer season is up +16.3% (+28.0% last report) compared to last year at this
time ($212)
➢ As a measure of Occupancy, (4.9%), summer season is down -53.2% (-56.7% last report) compared to last year at
this time (10.5%)
➢ No months are experiencing occupancy gains over last summer season
➢ May and June are experiencing ADR gains over last summer season
➢ Seasonal Inventory
o For the entire summer season there are 155,655 room nights available, a +5.9% (+2.8% last report)
increase over last summer season (146,922)
➢ Seasonal Bookings
o For the entire summer season there are 7,637 room nights booked, a +50.4% (-55.5% last report)
decrease over last summer season (15,410)
(This area is intentional left blank)
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DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Average Daily Performance for the current month and upcoming 6, December 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, is
currently down -13.9% (-14.1% last report) compared to last year
➢ Since the last report (12/15), bookings activity for December 1st through June 30th, 2021 has yielded a net of
+20,384 or 20,384 new bookings. This level of net booking activity has decreased from the last report (+9,229)
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
➢ New booking’s arrival date distribution of the total 20,384 (9,229 last report) added since last report:
o December: +4,023 (+3,380 last report) or 19.7% (36.6% last report)
o January: +8,910 (+2,074 last report) or 43.7% (22.5% last report)
o February: +3,840 (+2,024 last report) or 18.8% (21.9% last report)
o March: +3,068 (+1,434 last report) or 15.1% (15.5% last report)
o April: +718 (+224 last report) or 3.5% (2.4% last report)
o May: +92 (+93 last report) or 0.5% (1.0% last report)
o June: -267 or -1.3%
➢ Since the 12/15 report there has been a massive uptick in net bookings. While we had been tracking fairly
consistent trends of bookings being roughly equally spread over the next 90 days for the past 4 reports, this
trend has changed as January pulled in a net of 8,910 new bookings, or 43.7% of the total new bookings added
since 12/15. This change in trend represents a strong consumer market that is excited to get back to the Vail
Destination after the season was cut short last year. While January is still underperforming last year, on average
each day is down -18.9%, there is potential to make up some ground in the next 31 days to fill in some, but
most-likely not all, of that gap. December added the second most net new bookings, +4,023, making up 19.7% of
the total, with 3,220 net new bookings arrival dates falling between the 20th and 31st. February added the third
most bookings with +3,840, or 18.8% of the total. May continues to add the fewest bookings without
considering a net cancellation, though this performance is not the biggest surprise as the month is generally a
quiet one. June has shown a net reduction in bookings compared to what was recorded as of 12/15, and this
trend should be expected to change as we move closer to the summer season.
December
➢ December continued the trend noted during our mid-month report by adding more than 3,000 net bookings,
though this was not enough to bring year-over-year performance to an equivalency and as such average daily
performance improved to end the month at -14.1% down over last year
o There are -11,783 (-11,649 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +4,023 (+3,380 last report) bookings for the month
o The only outperformance is on the 15th, up +0.4% (+1.9% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 26th, down -30.2% (-31.5% last report) over last year at this time
o Christmas Day was down -29.3% (-29.9% last report) with -788 (-748 last report) less bookings than last
year at this time and has added +247 (+198 last report) bookings since the last report
o New Year’s Eve was currently down -13.1% (-16.9% last report) with -354 (-418 last report) less bookings
than last year at this time and has added +458 (+216 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 31st, with +458 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o Inventory is slightly lower than last year at this time
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January
➢ January added 4 times as many bookings as what was reported last, showing a domination in consumer booking
preference for the month, and furthermore improving average daily performance to -18.9% (-21.8% last report)
o There are -15,376 (-17,022 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +8,910 (+2,074 last report) bookings for the month
o New Year’s Day is down -9.0% (-13.8% last report) with -228 (-338 last report) less bookings than last
year at this time and has added +531 (+181 last report) bookings since the last report
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance was on the 27th, down -34.7% (-34.7% last report), and has now shifted to
the 31st, down -30.0% (-32.9% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 2nd, with +562 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
February
➢ February added almost 2,000 more bookings than noted last report, though the booking pace is smaller than last
year at this time, leading to a decrease in average daily performance to -26.3% (-25.9% last report)
o There are -19,446 (-18,221 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,840 (+2,024 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 14th, with +233 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance was on the 28th, down -38.2% (-41.1% last report), and has now shifted to
the 4th, down -39.0% over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
March
➢ March has added double the amount of bookings noted last report, though the increase is smaller than the
booking pace noted last year at this time, and as such, average daily performance has declined slightly to -15.9%
(-15.4% last report)
o There are -12,990 (-11,933 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +3,068 (+1,434 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 30th, with +206 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The largest outperformance is on the 30th, up +9.8% (+4.6% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 1st, down -41.6% (-43.8% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is slightly higher than last year at this time
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April
➢ April added more than double the amount of bookings as was noted last report, slightly improving average daily
performance to -7.3% (-7.4% last report)
o There are -5,554 (-5,448 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +718 (+224 last report) bookings for the month
o Easter (4/4) is currently down -10.3% (-9.6% last report) with -272 (-241 last report) less bookings than
last year at this time and has added +45 (+22 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 1st, with +141 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o The only outperformance is on the 18th, up +0.4% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 3rd, down -26.3% (-28.4% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is mostly slightly higher than last year at this time
May
➢ May continued the trend noted last report and added a similar amount of bookings, keeping average daily
performance the same at -4.3% (-4.3% last report)
o There are -3,133 (-3,143 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +92 (+93 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 28th, with +11 bookings
added
o The only net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 3rd, with -1 bookings cancelled
o The largest outperformance is on the 15th, up +0.9% (+1.0% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 11th, down -11.8% (-11.7% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is higher than last year at this time
June
➢ June has experienced a net reduction in bookings since the last report, dropping average daily performance to -
11.3% (–9.6% last report)
o There are -7,926 (-6,970 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net -267 bookings for the month
o The largest net addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 22nd and 30th, both adding 16
bookings each
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 7th, with -67 cancellations
o The only outperformance is on the 7th, up +1.5% (+5.6% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 23rd, down -20.8% (-20.3% last report), and has now shifted to
the 25th, down -22.3% over last year at this time
o Inventory is higher than last year at this time