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DesiMetrics Town Council Report, 2020-07-21Vail Town Council July 21, 2020 Data as of June 30, 2020 Presented by Tom Foley Ongoing Look: Jobs, better but…… 2 Mar 7 July 16 Mar 7 July 16211,000 282,000 3,307,000 6,867,000 6,615,000 5,237,000 4,442,000 3,867,000 3,176,000 2,687,000 2,446,000 2,123,000 1,897,000 1,566,000 1,540,000 1,480,000 1,427,000 1,310,000 1,300,000 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 Jobless Claims Reporting March 7 to July 16 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 Cumulative Jobless Claims Reporting March 7 to July 16 11.1% 98.1 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 25,595 3 Economy Dow Jones Unemployment Confidence 4 Economy Dow Jones: •25,595: -4.7% / 1,268 from June ‘19; -11.3% / 3,263 from Jan 1; +16.8% / 3,678 from Mar 1 •Not indictative of Consumer Spending, Employment, GDP Projections •Wall St. is a reflection of Wall St. •Despite dramatic losses in late Feb and through March, remains oversold •+ /-Supporting Savings (+); Jobs (-); Oversold (-); Broad Swings (-); Trade (-) Globecon(-) Consumer Confidence •98.1 Pts; Up from 85.7 in Apr, 85.9 in May; 3 Mo Avg = 2014 •Lags More Current Indicators by 25 Days •Buying Power in the hands of Consumers = Rate Pressure / Revenue Pressure •+/-Recessionary levels (-); Unemployment (-); Inflation Issues (-); Trade (-); Consumer Prices (-); Gasoline Short Term (+); (---) Unemployment Rate / Jobs •Unemployment 11.1%, down from 13.3% & 14.7% (May/Apr); Up from 3.6% January •Massive Job Losses; Current 1.3 million / week; 51.8 Mn since Mar 7 •The only job certainty is uncertainty; increasingly volatile over time •+/-CARES Act Expiration (-); Multi-Sector Impacts (-); Trade (-); Wages (-); Inflation Avg Daily Net Bookings: All Arrival Dates, National 1,292 1,207 1,148 980 958 962 963 1,032 556 -1,427 -396 -208 -145 -64 -72 26 26 262 399 477 651 628 853 720 587 Jul 11 - 18, 2020 Jul 3 - 10, 2020 Jun 25 - Jul 2, 2020 Jun 17 - 24, 2020 Jun 9 - 16, 2020 Jun 1 - Jun 8, 2020 May 24 - 31, 2020 May 16 - 23, 2020 May 8 - 15, 2020 Apr 30 - May 7, 2020 Apr 22 - 29, 2020 Apr 14 - 21, 2020 Apr 6 - 13, 2020 Mar 29 - Apr 5, 2020 Mar 21 - 28, 2020 Mar 13 - 20, 2020 Mar 5 - 12, 2020 Feb 26 - Mar 4, 2020 Feb 18 - 25, 2020 Feb 10 - 17, 2020 Feb 2 - 9, 2020 Jan 25 - Feb 1, 2020 Jan 17 - 24, 2020 Jan 9 - 16, 2020 Jan 1 - 8, 2020 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 # of Days Lead Time7 per. Mov Avg. (# of days prior to arrival Reservation Booked) Time Series: National Booking Lead Times Seasonal Average Bookings: 57 Days “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 # of Days Lead TimeBooking and Cancellation Lead Times 7 per. Mov Avg. (# of days prior to arrival Reservation Cancelled) Historical Average for This Week: 38.7 Time Series: National Cancellation Lead Times “CONCERN WINDOW” New & Re-bookings: 2 Extremes “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” NEW BOOKINGS ARRIVAL DATES REBOOKING: NEW ARRIVAL DATES “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” “CONFIDENCE WINDOW” Cancellations / Rebookings: Uncertainty CANCELLATION ORIGINAL ARRIVAL DATES REBOOKING ORIGINAL ARRIVAL DATES UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY Reports with data as of Sept 30, 2019 include: 27 Vail properties representing 2,193 units 57.7% of total community census 18 Western Destinations representing 198 properties and ~23,000 units ~59% of total regional industry census 10 Vail Property Participation 11 Vail Occupancy Summer To-Date -22% -32% -2% -6.2% Industry -1.3% -6% -1%+0.2% 1.5 Pts 2020 2019 YOY Change Room Nights Available 424,527 441,568 -3.8% Room Nights Booked 56,524 142,531 -60.3% Occupancy 13.3%32.3%-56.8% Historic On The Books Paid Occupancy% Chg in Paid Occupancy4% 16% 28% 16% 11% 5% 13% 65% 56% 46% 32% 45% 20% 50% 54% 35% 23% 11% 32% -79% -68% -48% -55% -52%-51% -59% Data as of Jun 30 (2020 season)Historic Actual (2019 season)Data as of Jun 30 (2019 season)Percent Variance May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Summer Total %0 %20 %40 %60 %80 %100 -85% -80% -75% -70% -65% -60% -55% -50% -45% 12 Vail Occupancy Summer 2020 Industry -55.3% Vail -58.7% Historic On The Books Average Daily Rate% Chg in Average Daily Rate$133$208$315$289$227$192$260$166$223$281$283$219$173$241$271$267$221$179$235-19% -7% 12% 2% 4% 11% 8% Data as of Jun 30 (2020 season)Data as of Jun 30 (2019 season)Historic Actual (2019 season)Percent Variance May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Summer Total 0$ 50$ 100$ 150$ 200$ 250$ 300$ 350$ -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 13 Vail ADR Summer 2020 Industry +6.1% Vail +7.7% Historic On The Books Revenue Per Available Room% Chg in Revenue Per Available Room$6$33$88$46$25$10$35$34$112$152$100$49$19$78$176$150$103$57$106-83% -70% -42% -54% -50% -46% -56% Data as of Jun 30 (2020 season)Data as of Jun 30 (2019 season)Historic Actual (2019 season)Percent Variance May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Summer Total 0$ 25$ 50$ 75$ 100$ 125$ 150$ 175$ 200$ -90% -85% -80% -75% -70% -65% -60% -55% -50% -45% -40% 14 Vail RevPAR Summer 2020 Industry -53.1% Vail -55.6% ADR by Week Booked and Arrival Month $238$396$466$656$383$364$560$1,617$1,935$474$156$189$305$453$356$345$520$1,711$1,778$325-34.2% -52.1% -34.6%-31.0% -7.1%-5.2%-7.3% 5.8% -8.1% -31.5% -75.0% -55.0% -35.0% -15.0% 5.0% 25.0% 45.0% 65.0% $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Weight Avg: May '20-Jan '21ADR Arrival Month Avg Daily Rate by Booking Date and Arrival Month: Lodging Only, Includes Taxes & Fees ADR as of February 15 ADR as of Feb 29 ADR as of Mar 15 ADR as of March 31 ADR as of April 15 ADR as of April 30 ADR as of May 15 ADR as of May 31 ADR as of Jun 15 ADR as of June 30 % Variance June 30 v Feb 15 16 Vail Booking Pace June 2020 17 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2020 Historic On The Books Date (Gridlines aligned with Saturdays)Total Occupancy RateData as of Jun 30 (2020) 27 properties Data as of Jun 30 (2019) 27 properties Historic Actual (2019)% Occupancy change % Occupancy change as of last period25 Apr 2002 May 2009 May 2016 May 2023 May 2030 May 2006 Jun 2013 Jun 2020 Jun 2027 Jun 2004 Jul 2011 Jul 2018 Jul 2025 Jul 2001 Aug 2008 Aug 2015 Aug 2022 Aug 2029 Aug 2005 Sep 2012 Sep 2019 Sep 2026 Sep 2003 Oct 2010 Oct 2017 Oct 2024 Oct 2031 Oct 20%75 - %50 - %25 - %0 %25 %50 %75 %100 18 Vail Daily Occupancy Report Next 180 Days On The Books Date (Gridlines aligned with Saturdays)Total Occupancy RateData as of Jun 30 (2020) 27 properties Data as of Jun 30 (2019) 27 properties Historic Actual (2019)% Occupancy change % Occupancy change as of last period04 Jul 2011 Jul 2018 Jul 2025 Jul 2001 Aug 2008 Aug 2015 Aug 2022 Aug 2029 Aug 2005 Sep 2012 Sep 2019 Sep 2026 Sep 2003 Oct 2010 Oct 2017 Oct 2024 Oct 2031 Oct 2007 Nov 2014 Nov 2021 Nov 2028 Nov 2005 Dec 2012 Dec 2019 Dec 2026 Dec 2002 Jan 21%75 - %50 - %25 - %0 %25 %50 %75 %100 120 Days to “Parity” 19 Performance Spectrum -Summer INDUSTRY HIGH, LOW, AVERAGE, AND VAIL COMPARISON +/- Occup 0/18 ADR 12/6 RevPAR 0/18 31.4%2.6%15.6% Vail 13.3% $465 $128$282 Vail $260 $96 $3$44 Vail $35 Thank You!