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Home My WebLink About31. DRAFT West Vail Master Plan Existing Conditions Initial Assessment: Demographics, Housing, & EconomyEconomic & Planning Systems, Inc. The Economics of Land Use 730 17th Street, Suite 630 Denver, CO 80202 303.623.3557 www.epsys.com WEST VAIL MASTER PLAN Existing Conditions Initial Assessment:Demographics, Housing, & Economy Prepared July 23, 2020 INITIAL FINDINGS Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|2 DEMOGRAPHICS West Vail resident population 1,300: 20% of Town 853 housing units: 10% of Town Second homes: less than half the concentration of Town –28% of total in West Vail –64% of total in all of Vail –(all vacant units) Demographics are similar to Town –Median age: 35-37 –Median Income: $70,000-$75,000 –Owner/Renter: 55%/45% Description West Vail Vail Eagle County Population 1,293 6,168 59,307 Households 616 3,014 21,690 Avg. HH Size 2.10 2.05 2.73 Median Age 34.8 37.0 35.6 Median Income $74,727 $69,685 $78,095 Housing Units 853 7,478 32,844 Owner-Occupied 332 1,506 14,181 Percent 54%56%70% Renter-Occupied 283 1,172 6,091 Percent 46%44%30% Vacant Homes 237 4,800 12,572 % of Total 28%64%38% Second Homes 201 4,168 10,308 As % of Vacant Units 85%87%82% As % of all Units 24%56%31% Source: ESRI; DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Copy of West Vail Demographic Variables CB.xlsx]T-Comparison Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|3 HOUSING MARKET Cheaper than the rest of Vail but still expensive –West Vail $1.3M average –Rest of Vail $3.4M average Homes are smaller than rest of Town –2,200 sq. ft. West Vail –3,100 sq. ft. rest of Vail More local buyers –60% in West Vail –24% rest of Vail $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Avg. Sale Price Vail*West Vail Vail* Avg. 2019 West Vail Avg. 2019 Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic & Planning Systems*Excludes West Vail Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|4 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Cost Burden: spending more than 30% of income on rent or mortgage payments 50% + of renters are cost burdened 30% of owners are cost burdened –On average spending 17-20% of income on housing –~$2,000/month Typical to see more affordability issues among renters, especially in mountain communities Town has extensive tools and policies to mitigate affordable housing demand Description West Vail Vail Cost Burden Owners N/A 30% Renters 55%51% % with Mortgage 62%57% Median Owner Costs With Mortgage $2,000 $2,021 Without $800 $764 Median Owner Costs as a % of Income 17%20% Source: U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Housing Costs.xlsx]T-Summ Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|5 WEST VAIL ECONOMY What do you need to make a town a Town? –Grocery store(s) –Hardware store –Community-serving retail –Auto service –Restaurants for broader market –Haircuts –Professional services –Home-based businesses Approximately 11% of Town sales tax, but essential to livability Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|6 MORE TO LEARN Business outreach –Identify issues, challenges that Plan can address –Ideas on expanding number and variety of businesses Resident outreach –What else would you like to see in commercial area? –Retail/F&B preferences survey Future of West Vail commercial Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|7 DISCUSSION Potential economic and land use issues (current and future) in West Vail West Vail Commercial –Is a major redevelopment proposal inevitable? –What is vision for commercial area? Business mix –What is missing? –Could we draw in Vail Valley locals? What business challenges are there? –COVID-19 –Other? What does workforce housing look like in West Vail? DEMOGRAPHICS AND GROWTH TRENDS Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|9 2010-2018 GROWTH TRENDS Eagle County is adding: –350 people/year –189 housing units/year Population -where: –Gypsum: 31% share of growth –Unincorporated including Edwards: 32% share of growth –Vail: 6% share of growth Housing –where: –Gypsum: 20% share of growth –Unincorporated/Edwards: 38% share of growth –Vail: 16% share of growth Takeaway –Families live and are moving further down valley Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|10 POPULATION 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Population Vail Gypsum Eagle Avon Source: DOLA;Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|11 HOUSING UNITS 7,231 7,478 13,784 14,363 2,418 2,5813,615 3,6762,212 2,519 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Housing Units Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems Gypsum Avon Eagle Unincoporated Areas Vail Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|12 BUILDING PERMITS –UNITS, 2016-2020 YTD Small amount of new construction in West Vail Very little vacant land remaining Smaller multifamily unit size in West Vail: 1,500 sq. ft. compared to 4,160 in rest of Town Description 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Avg. Size Single Family West Vail 1 4 4 4 0 13 4,456 Other Vail 0 4 2 3 0 9 4,443 Total 1 8 6 7 0 22 4,451 Multifamily West Vail 0 32 0 0 0 32 1,542 Other Vail 0 0 56 1 22 79 4,160 Total 0 32 56 1 22 111 2,414 Source: Town of Vail; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Building Permits.xlsx]T-Permits 2016-2020 HOUSING AND AFFORDABILITY INDICATORS Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|14 COMMUTING 30 percent of workers commute more than 50 miles Trend has not changed 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Less than 10 miles 10 to 24 miles 25 to 50 miles Greater than 50 miles Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|15 BENEFITS OF RESIDENT HOUSING •100 Units of workforce housing: •Saves 95,000 gallons of gasoline•Reduce 2,200,000 miles traveled / year •2.1 percent reduction of in-commuting •CO2 reduction of 14,000 trees planted/year Economic Value & Community Benefits of Resident Housing Investment in Vail (EPS 2018) Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|16 AFFORDABILITY Cost Burden: spending more than 30% of income on rent or mortgage payments 50% + of renters are cost burdened 30% of owners are cost burdened –On average spending 17-20% of income on housing –~$2,000/month Typical to see more affordability issues among renters, especially in mountain communities Description West Vail Vail Cost Burden Owners N/A 30% Renters 55%51% % with Mortgage 62%57% Median Owner Costs With Mortgage $2,000 $2,021 Without $800 $764 Median Owner Costs as a % of Income 17%20% Source: U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Housing Costs.xlsx]T-Summ Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|17 WORKFORCE HOUSING INVENTORY (EHUs) 15% of all workforce housing units (EHUs) are in West Vail Most recent project in West Vail was Chamonix –32 units 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1990s 2000s 2010s Total Units West Vail Other Vail Source: Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|18 VAIL HOUSING POLICIES Housing IS Infrastructure Housing Partners –use P3s and pursue local and regional solutions Private Sector Importance –promote private sector investment to create deed restricted homes Leverage financial strength –Use the Town’s financial strength and acumen to acquire deed restrictions Break Down Barriers –Align land use regulations and codes, efficiently review projects…get to “yes” Funding creates deed restrictions People promote community –Provide opportunity to access Town’s housing programs No Net Loss of deed restricted units Keep up with demand –Inclusionary housing ordinance and commercial linkage fees Funding is Policy –Town will fund housing Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|19 VAIL HOUSING TOOLS Ch. 23-24 of Town Code Inclusionary Zoning –10% of net new residential square feet provided as deed restricted employee housing –No less than half mitigated on-site –Fee-in-lieu $320.90 per net new sq. ft. mitigated Commercial linkage –Units or fee mitigating 20 percent of net new employees generated by commercial development –For all new construction, no less than half mitigated on-site –Fee-in-lieu $178,000 per employee mitigated Vail InDeed –Acquire deed restrictions on existing homes (pay owners to put a deed restriction on property) –Resident employee restriction, no appreciation cap –Average cost of $65,000 per deed restriction –Capital projects fund: $2.5M transfer to Housing Funds in 2019 HOUSING MARKET Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|21 ANNUAL AVG RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE, 2010-2020 West Vail is cheaper, but still expensive Average Price 2019 –Vail (excl. WV): $3.4 million –West Vail: $1.3 million Annual Appreciation 2015-2019 –Vail (excl. WV): 9.2% –West Vail: 6.7% Low sales volume –average prices are volatile $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Annual Avg. Sale Price Vail*West Vail Vail* Avg. 2019 West Vail Avg. 2019 Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Excludes West Vail 59 40 78 61 68 59 82 84 86 79 19 11 13 14 20 11 10 10 52 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Annual Sales Vail*West Vail Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Excludes West Vail Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|22 PRICE DISTRIBUTION, 2015-2020 0.0%0.9% 7.5% 30.8% 15.9% 14.0% 21.5% 6.5% 2.8%1.5%2.4%1.5%2.9% 7.8%8.0% 36.1% 12.4% 27.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Less than $250,000 $250,000 - $350,000 $350,000 - $450,000 $450,000 - $600,000 $600,000 - $800,000 $800,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 Over $3 million % Total West Vail Town of Vail* Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Town of Vail exlcudes West Vail Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|23 RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICE PER SQ. FT., 2015-2020 1.9%0.0%2.8%3.7% 34.6% 29.0% 10.3% 13.1% 3.7%0.9%3.9%0.5%1.2%3.7%3.7% 17.2% 19.9% 23.8% 6.9% 19.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Less than$200 $200 - $250 $250 - $300 $300 - $350 $350 - $400 $400 - $500 $500 - $600 $600 - $800 $800 -$1,000 Greater than$1,000 % Total West Vail Town of Vail* Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems *Town of Vail exlcudes West Vail Avg. Unit Size –West Vail: 2,200 sq. ft. –Vail (excl. WV): 3,100 sq. ft. Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|24 LOCAL VS. NONLOCAL HOME BUYERS, 2015-2020 Local: Owner address is in Eagle County Local 59.8% Non local 40.2% West Vail Home Buyers Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning System Local 23.9% Non local 76.1% Town of Vail* Home Buyers Source: Eagle County Assessor; Town of Vail; Economic& Planning Systems*Town of Vail exlcudes West Vail Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|25 VAIL RESIDENTIAL SALES, 2019-2020 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|27 KEY TAKEAWAYS –WEST VAIL Small bed base –roughly 5 percent of Town Sales tax growth –Increase in lodging tax revenue –Retail stable –11% of Town total About 10% of total jobs are in West Vail, less than 1,000 Non-tourism jobs: half of Town’s business services sector is in West Vail West Vail largest number of home-based businesses –“Catch all” category for businesses operating from a residence –Most are construction and construction trades Local’s services: –2 Grocery Stores, hardware store, mechanic, barber shop, chain restaurants, gas stations Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|28 BED BASE Hotel rooms: 116 Short term rental units: 84 –Less than 5% of Town STRs are dispersed throughout West Vail Description Registrations Bedrooms Occupancy West Vail 94 275 686 Percent of Vail 3.8%5.0%4.5% Town of Vail 2,446 5,497 15,298 Source: Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[ShortTermRentals_WestVailStudy.xlsx]Sheet1 Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|29 TOWN OF VAIL SALES TAX -ANNUAL $0 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $35,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revenue Source: Vail Business Review; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|30 SALES TAX –WEST VAIL BY TYPE $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revenue Retail Lodging Food & Beverage Other Source: Vail Business Review; Economic& Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|31 SALES TAX -SEASONAL Town-wide 61% of sales tax collected between December and March COVID-19: –47% decrease March 2019-March 2020 –Impact was less severe in West Vail –Essential businesses –More locals in West Vail 2019-2020 Description 2019 2020 % Change February Vail Total $4,137,089 $4,266,933 3.1% March Vail Total $4,244,716 $2,268,861 -46.5% Vail Village $2,202,119 $997,735 -54.7% W Vail/E Vail/Sandstone $617,234 $421,970 -31.6% Source: Vail Business Review; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Stax Worksheet.xlsx]Table 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Share of Rev. Source: VailBusiness Review;Economic& Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|32 JOB TRENDS Job growth areas: –Vail +1,160 –Avon +1,868 –Gypsum +988 –Eagle +870 –Edwards +354 Description 2010 % Total 2018 % Total Total % Capture Avon/Beaver Creek 7,589 27.6%9,457 28.3%1,868 31% Eagle 3,732 13.6%4,602 13.7%870 14% Eagle-Vail 81 0.3%110 0.3%29 0% Edwards 3,155 11.5%3,510 10.5%354 6% Gypsum 1,488 5.4%2,477 7.4%988 16% Minturn 406 1.5%485 1.4%79 1% Red Cliff 81 0.3%110 0.3%29 0% Vail 7,256 26.4%8,416 25.1%1,160 19% Eagle County 27,457 100.0%33,474 100.0%6,017 100% Source: QCEW; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[203028-Employment Trends v2.xlsx]T-Summary 2010-2018 Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|33 JOBS -VAIL Vail has a total of 8,413 jobs Vail Village has over half (55%) of all jobs in Vail West Vail has a total of 729 jobs, or about 9% of all jobs in Vail Lionshead 1,496 Vail Village 4,619 West Vail 729 Glen Lyon 384 Other 1,188 Jobs in Vail by Area Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|34 PERCENT OF JOBS BY INDUSTRY 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50% Lodging and Food Services Retail Admin. Support and Waste Mgmt Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Rec. Construction Real Estate and Rentals Share of Jobs West Vail Vail Village Eagle County “Admin. Support and Waste Mgmt.” is a business-to-business services category, a non-tourism sector Economic & Planning Systems West Vail Economic & Demographic Conditions|35 BUSINESS LICENSES Non-tourism sectors in West Vail 26% Home Occupation businesses: generic classification for all home-based business 18% General Services 4% Professional Fewer businesses than other areas, but different mix State Business Type West Vail Vail Village Lionshead East Vail Vail Total Accommodation Services 11 34 16 8 69 Athletic Club 0 1 2 0 3 Construction 3 2 1 1 7 Financial Service 1 4 0 0 5 Food and Beverage 12 62 20 1 95 General Service 17 19 19 1 56 Home Occupation 24 1 2 11 38 Professional 4 15 6 3 28 Real Estate 1 20 3 0 24 Retail 21 130 51 5 207Total9428812030532 Accommodation Services 12%12%13%27%13% Athletic Club 0%0%2%0%1% Construction 3%1%1%3%1% Financial Service 1%1%0%0%1% Food and Beverage 13%22%17%3%18% General Service 18%7%16%3%11% Home Occupation 26%0%2%37%7% Professional 4%5%5%10%5% Real Estate 1%7%3%0%5% Retail 22%45%43%17%39% Total 100%100%100%100%1 Source: Vail Business Review; Economic & Planning Systems Z:\Shared\Projects\DEN\203028-Vail West Master Plan\Data\[Business Licenses.xlsx]T-Summary