HomeMy WebLinkAbout05. Vail Production Notes 2020-11-15Copyright (c) 2020, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
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Data as of: 11/15/2020
Vail Production Notes
DOR PRODUCTION NOTES:
General DOR Notes:
➢ Average Daily Performance for the current month and upcoming 6, November 1st, 2020 to May 31st, 2021, is
currently down -11.3% (-10.2 last report) compared to last year
➢ Since the last report (10/31), bookings activity for November 1st through April 30th, 2021 has yielded a net of
+11,243 or 11,243 new bookings. This level of net booking activity has decreased from the last report (+16,997)
and has now experienced 3 consecutive report over report decreases.
o *It is important to consider that when we observe net statistics these numbers take into account a
summation of both bookings and cancellations as both types of activity were noted since the last report.
o **We cannot account for the net change to bookings for the month of May as this month is newly on the
books and therefore has no change from the prior report
➢ New booking’s arrival date distribution of the total 11,243 added since last report
o November: +2,082 (+3,938 last report) or 18.5% (23.2% last report)
o December: +2,044 (+4,735 last report) or 18.2% (27.9% last report)
o January: +2,768 (+2,889 last report) or 24.6% (17.0% last report)
o February: +2,130 (+1,729 last report) or 18.9% (10.2% last report)
o March: +1,765 (+672 last report) or 15.7% (4.0% last report)
o April: +454 (-949 last report) or 4.1% (-5.6% last report)
➢ Net new bookings since the 10-31 report show us an evening-out of the arrival date distribution. While the next
3 month’s net new bookings do account for 61.3% of the total, change in trend for months like February, March,
and April hopefully are insights into a growing strength in bookings for the winter season though this remains to
be seen as most months are still underperforming last year at this time. January added the most net new
bookings since the last report, as 1,980 net new bookings were added for the 1st through 16th, or 71.5% of the
total, illustrating a booking prominence for the holiday period of New Year’s Day through the Friday before
Martin Luther King Day. While December’s net new bookings do account for 18.2% of the total, only half of the
amount of net new bookings were added compared to last report, which may be a reaction of consumers
waiting to see what public health policy changes and COVID-19-related risks will be present around the
Christmas and New Years Eve holiday period as only 539 or 26.4% of net new bookings were added between the
24th and 31st. April continues to pull in the smallest share of net new bookings, after a net cancellation last
report, though this behavior is expected as the month remains far away and almost a full ski/snowboard season
in-between.
Copyright (c) 2020, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
Confidential Information not for reproduction and protected by law.
Communications@Inntopia.com
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November
➢ While November had been experiencing strong bookings momentum for the last few reports, the trend changed
since the last report as last year short-lead pacing grew at a rate larger than this year, bringing average daily
performance down to -1.8% (-0.7% last report)
o There are -1,872 (+147 last report) more bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,082 (+3,938 last report) bookings for the month
o Thanksgiving Day is currently up +0.7% (+4.3% last report) with -22 (+161 last report) less bookings than
last year at this time and has added +121 (+183 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 27th, with +136 bookings added
o The largest outperformance is on the 22nd, up +5.4% (+7.1% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance was on the 6th, down -6.8% (-8.7% last report), and has now shifted to
the 14th, down -9.3% over last year at this time
o Inventory is lower than last year at this time
December
➢ Akin to November, December experienced large bookings growth last year at this time, and added roughly half
the amount of net bookings added last report, therefore average daily performance has declined further to -
11.4% (-9.5% last report)
o There are -10,023 (-6,565 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,044 (+4,735 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest outperformance was on the 10th, up +2.9% (+3.4% last report), and has now shifted to the
15th, up +4.3% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 25th, down -29.6% (-27.2% last report) over last year at this time
o Christmas Day is currently down -29.6% (-27.2% last report) with -787 (-671 last report) less bookings
than last year at this time and has added +49 (+108 last report) bookings since the last report
o New Year’s Eve is currently down -13.1% (-12.7% last report) with -376 (-289 last report) less bookings
than last year at this time and has added +112 (+140 last report) bookings since the last report
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 19th, with +163 bookings added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 6th, with -16 cancelations
o Inventory is lower than last year at this time
January
➢ January continues to add bookings in a consistent pace, though the pace underperforms the bookings added last
year at this time, adding to the rapidly-growing deficit of bookings vs last year and as such average daily
performance has fallen to -20.4% (-18.1% last report)
o There are -16,814 (-13,865 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,768 (+2,889 last report) bookings for the month
o New Year’s Day is down -11.3% (-13.1% last report) with -327 (-302 last report) less bookings than last
year at this time and has added +142 (+119 last report) bookings since the last report
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance is on the 27th, down -33.9% (-30.8% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 2nd, with +172 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o Inventory is lower than last year at this time
Copyright (c) 2020, Sterling Valley Systems All Rights Reserved.
Confidential Information not for reproduction and protected by law.
Communications@Inntopia.com
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February
➢ February added a larger amount of net bookings than noted last report, though the pace underperforms last
year like all winter months currently, and has experienced a further decrease of average daily performance to -
25.2% (-24.0% last report)
o There are -18,560 (-16,832 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +2,130 (+1,729 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 4th, with +119 bookings added
o No days experienced a net reduction in bookings
o There are no days outperforming last year
o The largest underperformance is on the 28th, down -42.2% (-40.9% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is lower than last year at this time
March
➢ March’s booking pace also underperforms last year, though a doubling in net bookings added since the last
report has occurred, leading to a small decline in average daily performance to -14.2% (-13.0% last report)
o There are -11,777 (-9,850 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +1,765 (+672 last report) bookings for the month
o The largest addition in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 21st, with +90 bookings added
o The largest net reduction in bookings, since the last report, occurred on the 18th, with -32 cancellations
o The largest outperformance was on the 31st, down -0.3% (+6.1% last report) and is now on the 30th, up
+1.7% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 1st, down -44.9% (-42.4% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is lower than last year at this time
April
➢ April experienced a large change in trend since the last report where a net cancellation in bookings was present,
adding +454 net bookings, and only slightly dropping average daily performance to -6.4% (-6.2% last report)
o There are -5,042 (-4,308 last report) less bookings than last year at this time
o Since the last report, there have been net +454 (-949 last report) bookings for the month
o Easter (4/4) is currently down -9.5% (-7.4% last report) with -253 (-189 last report) less bookings than
last year at this time and has added +31 (-5 last report) bookings since the last report
o The only outperformance is on the 18th, up +1.1% (+0.8% last report) over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 3rd, down -26.9% (-20.1% last report) over last year at this time
o Inventory is lower than last year at this time
May
➢ May has just come on the books and is showing very similar performance compared to last year as average daily
performance is slightly down -0.3%
o There are -307 less bookings than last year at this time
o The largest outperformance is on the 12th, up +11.9% over last year at this time
o The largest underperformance is on the 19th, down -10.5% over last year at this time
o Inventory is lower for the second half of the month